As we look at risers and fallers in points leagues, the focus should not just be on how players are performing, but what their role is.
Are your hitters suddenly leading off or batting lower in the order than expected? Have they gotten an off-day, and is it because the manager put them in a platoon? Or did they get subbed out at the end of a game for defensive reasons?
As for pitchers, did they get pulled after just 70-80 pitches, or were they allowed to work deep into the game? And could anyone on the IL or in the minors threaten their rotation spot?
As volume is everything in points leagues, these are the questions you want to answer beyond just whether a player gets hot. So, given their role and their performance, who should you buy in on, and who should you leave alone?
Risers
The Guardians have a pair of points-league specialists in Martínez and Steven Kwan, and have recently been stacking their lineup 1-2 against RHP’s. Martínez has rewarded owners in the last seven games with a .414 batting average and .690 SLG, with three steals to go with his pair of home runs. Much has apparently changed in Angel’s batting profile from last year to this one, where he had a first-percentile xSLG, a fourth-percentile Chase Rate, and a seventh-percentile walk rate. While he still chases too much and doesn’t walk enough, he’s shown elite contact skills with a 13.3% Whiff Rate (ninety-sixth percentile) and a .305 expected batting average (ninetieth).
Still just 24, Martínez showed decent power in AAA with a .812 OPS last season, even if that power evaporated when he made it to the big club. And while he was still more of a ‘doubles in the gap’ hitter than a homer guy, that plays just fine in points (his two-RBI double from last night’s contest).
Even more interesting, after forty-two plate appearances in April, Martínez has struck out just once.
Oh, and he’s eligible both at second base and in the outfield. If there’s a spot on your points league team in either position, he’s worth the add.
If you homer in three of your last four games, you’re probably going to make this list. But even more important, Bauers totaled just fifteen at-bats against lefties all of last season—this year, he’s already up to thirteen. So he’s apparently out of the strict platoon in which he spent much of his career. So far, it’s yet to pay dividends (he’s got a .368 OPS against them) but it’s worth noting the opportunity is there, at least for now.
Usually around a .200-.220 hitter, Bauers has an impressive .278 xBA this season and has improved his Average Exit Velocity by more than two mph (93.7 to 91.7) since last season, along with a 4.5% improvement in his Pull-Air rate (16.0 to 20.5). And while K’s have been an issue historically, he’s striking out just 20% of the time this season and has a career walk rate of 11.5%.
Also worth noting: while the Brewers will miss having Christian Yelich in their lineup, Bauers should move up in the order and net a few additional plate appearances.
One caveat—he’s just as injury-prone as Yelich, having never played more than 117 games in a season. That and his historic swing-and-miss tendencies limit him to a grab-while-hot, drop-when-not option.
Another veteran defying conventional wisdom is Vargas, who is slugging more than 250 points higher than his career-best mark (.667 compared to .413, which was all the way back in 2019). Having never hit more than six home runs in a season, Vargas only started playing on March 30th and already has two, including a three-run shot of Trevor Rogers last night.
Vargas has a .381 batting average so far this season and has batted first or second in four of the last five games with both Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll banged up of late. If either superstar misses extended time, Vargas should get more opportunities at the top of the lineup. Like Angel Martínez, he historically hasn’t offered much power, but in just forty-two at-bats he’s got a triple and four doubles to go that pair of home runs, so maybe there’s something to this hot start (he’s also barreling at 8.6%, more than twice his career average). But as with Bauers, ride the wave but don’t be afraid to get off when it’s time.
It’s hard to believe Detmers is still just 26, as it feels like he’s been on the verge of a breakout for much longer. Known for his electric-but-inconsistent stuff, Detmers has been nothing but on point so far this year, capping things off with a brilliant seven-inning effort against the Yankees, striking out nine hitters and allowing just four base-runners (and no walks).
Detmers doesn’t always go deep into games, but two of his four starts have gone to 6.2 innings or longer and he’s cut his walk rate to 6.4% (last year it was 9.4). Some of the adjustments made include a refurbished change-up and tighter spin on his slider and curveball. Extended time in the bullpen last year might have also improved his attack mentality to go after hitters early, where he’d often find himself in 3-2 counts in previous seasons.
Detmers pitched only 63.2 innings in his relief role last year (he made zero starts), but between AAA and the Majors in 2024 he went 165.1, so there might not be a ceiling here (and it doesn’t look like he’s going back to the ‘pen anytime soon). If he continues to throw strikes and get whiffs from his change (four Yankees K’ed on it last night), there’s a ton of potential here.
Fallers
Vientos had a solid first week of action that put him on a lot of waiver wire lists—he was batting .476 and getting more opportunities with the injury to Jorge Polanco—but an 0-for-23 slump since then (with eight K’s) earned him a bench spot over the weekend, with potentially more to come. After a breakout season in 2024 where he hit 27 home runs in 111 games, Vientos hit just .233 last year with 17 homers in 121 games. He’s carrying a 2.9% barrel rate so far this season, and the exit velocity has dipped over four mph overall. If he’s still on your team, it’s safe to drop him.
This one hurts, as Okamoto was on my sleeper list and I drafted him heavily. But after looking like his game would transfer well from the Nippon League to the Majors in Spring Training, Okamoto is carrying a 34.4% K-rate whereas he struck out just 10% of the time across the Pacific. It might just be a matter of adjusting to Major League pitching, but Kazuma is starting to miss time (he sat on April 11th after going 0-for-8). He’s still an excellent talent and it’s not too late for him to turn it around, but usually players need a year or two of experience before they start to excel.
Another sleeper candidate, Abbott pitched effectively to a 2.87 ERA last season over 166.1 innings, and presented a lot of points-league value as a starter to draft in later rounds. Unfortunately, it’s been a rocky few starts.
First off, the whiff rate on his fastball has nearly vanished, going from 19.9% in 2025 to just 6.0% this season. While the velocity is still about the same (92.8 to 92.6), the horizontal break has shrunk considerably. He’s also up to an 8.9% walk rate, so his K:BB ratio has collapsed from 3.47 to 1.50.
Abbott benefited from a lot of luck in his All-Start season last year, and that luck may have run out. He only has mediocre stuff and plays in a homer-happy park with a middling-at-best offense behind him. With a 1.70 WHIP so far this season, it’s best to avoid him for now.
