Price Fluctuation

For those unaware of VPR – the stat I created to measure SP consistency from start to start – David Price‘s volatility was what sparked the initial motivation for its creation.  This...

For those unaware of VPR – the stat I created to measure SP consistency from start to start – David Price’s volatility was what sparked the initial motivation for its creation.  This year is just emphasizing the stat’s roots, as Price followed an Excellent Start with a complete clunker: 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. He’s rotated fantastic outings with poor outings through his four games and you may be wondering what you’re supposed to do with Price.  I’m telling you to buy wherever you can.  His xFIP is a luscious 2.79 despite his 7.06 ERA, with unreal K/9 and BB/9 numbers.  There’s not a chance he performs with such variability through the season and while there will be the occasional blow up from Price, he will still be a Top 10 guy at the end of the year.  Go take advantage of a buy low opportunity ASAP. 

Let’s see what every other SP did yesterday:

Jake Arrieta – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. You probably thought I’d lead with Arrieta today after his no-no.  Why?  What else do I need to tell you guys?  He’s really really good, as if you didn’t know that before.  Let’s all be happy we have him on our teams, while slightly upset he walked four batters because let’s be real, was that in any way necessary Arrieta?  Fun fact: This start, you know where he threw a no-hitter, held his worst xFIP since June 16th last season.  That’s 24 starts.

Edinson Volquez – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. His first three starts were against poor opponents, but him stepping it up against the Tigers is pretty dang impressive.  Then you realize he gets some incredible matchups coming up: Angels + Nats + Indians + Braves…sign me up!

Gerrit Cole – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces gonna ace.  It doesn’t happen too often that Cole gives you start with no blemishes…well, only six frames? Nah, I’ll be happy tonight.  You caught me on a good evening Cole.

Matt Wisler – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. This is your standard One Night Bland.

Jered Weaver – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Two strikeouts in seven innings?  Sounds like the kind of luck Weaver needs to get if he allows just 1 ER.

Clayton Kershaw – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks.  Aces gonna ace.  I mean, the 10 hits are kinda weird, but whatevs you do you Kersh and we still love you.

Rich Hill – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 10 Ks.  KEEP IT GOING HILL.  Well, he gets the Tigers next…that could be more of the same or a bump in the road.I get the feeling it’ll be more of the latter. IT’S OKAY IF YOU DON’T KEEP IT GOING HILL.

Ricky Nolasco – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks.  Nolasco is doing everything he can to pull in the MFRTSPA.  Should you go pick him up?  Maybe as he gets the Indians next, but I really don’t want to do that.  This is Nolasco, people.  The guy whose lowest ERA in the past two seasons was 5.38.  His ERA has been under 4.00 just once since 2009.  Let’s keep it sane people.

Tom Koehler – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I can conceive of moments when I’d stream Koehler, but it involves him not playing about 95% of teams in the majors.

A.J. Griffin – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Yeah, I don’t really like Griffin much at all.  That xFIP above 5.00 is going to Crash like a David Matthews Band groupie who will not…stop…playing…that…damn…song…

Chris Tillman – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks.  Guess what!  What?!  Chris got a no-decision.  You can’t spell win with Tillman.

Marco Estrada – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 9 Ks. The strikeouts are starting to look somewhat legit, but 10 baserunners in 5 innings?  And just 1 ER?  What kind of sorcery is this?

Luis Severino – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks.  Slowly and steadily Severino is earning your trust completely unlike that friend’s dog you met yesterday.  That golden lab freakin’ adores you.

James Shields – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks.  You know what is worse than Shields’ 4.15 ERA after this game?  His 4.62 FIP.  Now please stop thinking if you want to add Shields.  You know who you are.

Johnny Cueto – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. This is pretty lame from a guy that many people want in the Top 20.  Just saying.

John Danks – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks. Danks the Tank!  Danks the Tank!

Shelby Miller – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 5 BBs, 1 Ks.  Miller was pulled in the third after walking the first four batters of the inning.  I placed Miller in the 90s this past week, but there’s no way I could have expected this.  Something is up, for realsies. 

Nate Karns – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. Our Call Boy was disappointing against the Indians, allowing his walk rate to get the better of him.  I’d bench him against the Stros, but I like him as a stream against the A’s.

Taylor Jungmann – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 6 BBs, 2 Ks.  Six walks?  Jeez man, talk about the Jungmann Blues.

Mike Pelfrey – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks.  The last time Pelfrey was on my team, I was considering getting a Zune.  Zunes were awesome, don’t hate.

Max Scherzer – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks.  It’s like Kershaw and Arrieta sucked up all the ace stats for the day.  I will say that i’m a bit happy for not putting Scherzer at #2 despite how many other people elected to in the pre-season.  Starts like these show up a little more often than they should for a pitcher of his caliber.

Jake Odorizzi – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Blegh.  I’m not the biggest fan of Odorizzi in the first place, but I still don’t like seeing this from Jake.  He’s better than this.

Brandon Finnegan – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. So round 2 versus the Cubs didn’t turn out so well.  I’m avoiding Finnegan until I see him command the zone better than he has for a few starts now.

Dallas Keuchel – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 13 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks.  This is why I was so low on Keuchel for the majority of 2015.  He doesn’t strikeout enough guys that when his stuff isn’t on, you won’t have much to salvage.  But I digress, this is one of the unluckier starts you’ll ever see, as he held a 2.63 xFIP through the outing with over 50% grounders that turned into 13 freakin’ hits.  What did he do to receive this wrath from the baseball gods?  He stepped on the foul line while walking to the mound.  Seriously Dallas?  Get your act together man.

Cody Anderson – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Mr. Anderson…how can we expect you to pitch well, if you are unable to speak?

Today’s Streamer

Nick Tropeano vs. Seattle Mariners – Let’s keep the Trop train rolling.  It’s the toughest matchup he’s had, but there aren’t many options unless Aaron Nola and Aaron Sanchez are somehow not owned and there’s no way I’m endorsing CC Sabathia even if it is against the Rays.

Tomorrow’s Streamers

Hector Santiago vs. Seattle Mariners – Santiago featured increased velocity last time out as well as extra movement, which could spell a small breakout + the Mariners are a decent team to let it ride.

J.A. Happ vs. Oakland Athletics – Happ has been flying under the radar, providing good peripherals as he plays for a winning ball club.  This looks like an ideal outing for the southpaw.

Game of the Day

Adam Wainwright vs. San Diego Padres – If Wain-o can’t do it here, he can’t do it anywhere.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

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