The off-season is a perfect time to dive into article ideas that the regular season simply lacks the time for. Each year, I attempt to refine my prospect ranking process. My goal is always to keep followers up to date on the latest trends and prospects that they need to roster in dynasty leagues. For those who consistently follow along, thank you.
Admittedly, the current process is not perfect. That is where this article comes into play. Bias undoubtedly plays a part in my current prospect rankings. What is one good way to remove bias? Data and numbers. So, I am taking the top 20 at each position (with some help from Martin Sekulski) and comparing their end-of-season prospect-list ranking to where they would rank in terms of projections to identify any prospects that are currently misrepresented in terms of rankings.
The Math
Each of the top 20 prospects at each position was taken and put into a spreadsheet. From there, each prospect was given a ceiling and floor projection. These projections are not data-driven, but personal scouting beliefs. The categories factoring into the model were home runs, stolen bases, batting average, strikeouts, and walks. From there, a “confidence level” was assigned to each prospect. This confidence level indicates the confidence I have in a prospect reaching their ceiling. For example, if a prospect has an 80% confidence level, then their expected projection is calculated as 80% of their ceiling and 20% of their floor.
From there, I worked with AI to build a scoring model that accounts for both positional value and a prospect’s ceiling, weighting the ceiling a bit more heavily. Positional value was factored in by utilizing FanGraphs Auction Calculator from the 2026 season. The model looks at the “elite producers” for home runs, stolen bases, and batting average at each position, the “average producers,” and the “replacement level” producers with the assumption of a standard 12-team fantasy league. To create a position benchmark blend, the model pulls 80% of the “elite producers”, 10% of the “average producers,” and 10% of the “replacement level” producers. From there, the model spits out a score for each prospect in each category based on their expected projection. The model takes 90% of a prospect’s expected projection, but also 10% of the prospect’s ceiling projection to account for upside.
The final result is a score assigned to each prospect. The goal is that throughout a prospect’s development curve, their ceiling or floor could be easily adjusted to better reflect their long-term projection. Their confidence level can also be adjusted as they develop. This article will dive into a little bit of each prospect’s projection and then compare the rankings in terms of score versus the end-of-season prospect list.
The Prospects
Jesús Made – MIL
Expected Projection: .278 | 21.48 HR | 35.12 SB | 16.4% K% | 8.5% BB%
Score: 98.0
Jesús Made ranks as the top prospect in baseball. His confidence level currently sits at 82% based on his extreme polish at the plate. His floor is primarily focused on his batted-ball distribution. Made does not prioritize pulling the ball or launching it in the air. This could impact his home run totals. However, he has excellent speed, strong contact skills, and should turn into a fantasy starter. This is evidenced by his 98.0 score. Made’s power production is not essential to his long-term fantasy value. This is simply the icing on the cake.
Eli Willits – WSN
Expected Projection: .263 | 21.5 HR | 39.95 SB | 22.2% K% | 12.6% BB%
Score: 92.5
The confidence level on Willits sits lower than Made (65%), but the ceiling may be even higher. Willits is a plus-plus runner who projects to be able to steal bases at a high rate once he reaches the major leagues. He has already flashed better game power than Made as well. Still just 18 years old, there is a bit more swing-and-miss in Willits’ profile that keeps his confidence level below 70%. He is hot on Made’s tail for the title of top shortstop prospect in baseball.
Franklin Arias – BOS
Expected Projection: .284 | 19.6 HR | 9.95 SB | 13.8% K%| 6.7% BB%
Score: 69.3
What a season it was for Arias, who took an already elite hit tool and added newfound game power, crushing 25 home runs this season. Is the power breakout legit? If it is, Arias has the ceiling projection of a .300 hitter with 25 homers. If not, he is a high-contact rate guy who is not going to run very much. The lack of stolen bases hurts his final score as well as his 55% confidence score. The Max EVs were underwhelming during his time in Triple-A, and it is not a profile that screams 25 home runs. Even still, Arias’ elite hit tool lands him with a very solid 69.3 final score.
Roch Cholowsky – CWS
Expected Projection: .268 | 23.85 HR | 12.85 SB | 17.8% K% | 10.0% BB%
Score: 72.7
How do you determine a confidence score for a prospect with nine professional games under his belt? The only way is to rely on the eye test and collegiate performance. Ultimately, I landed at 65%, which may seem high, but Cholowsky seems like one of the safest collegiate bats in a long time. His quick hands and all-fields power should easily result in 20+ home runs. He is also patient with a strong understanding of the strike zone, which should help transition to professional ball a bit easier. There are not a ton of real flaws in Cholowsky’s game, outside of the fact that he is unlikely to reach 20+ stolen bases. At his worst, Cholowsky figures to hit close to 20 homers with a decent walk rate. At his ceiling, he could be a .280 hitter with nearly 30 home runs and a handful of steals.
Grady Emerson – TBR
Expected Projection: .245 | 19.56 HR | 28.8 SB | 25.0% K% | 8.1% BB%
Score: 62.4
Back-to-back 2026 draftees at this point. Both ranked inside the top 20 in the final prospect list update. The biggest difference in score here is the confidence level. A prep bat at 18 years old, Emerson has as much upside as any prospect. His ceiling projection came in at .270 with 27 home runs and 35 stolen bases. He is a great athlete with a projectable frame that could be a fantasy difference-maker. At the same time, he is still extremely raw, and he came in just under 40% on the confidence scale. Things should work for Emerson, but he needs to prove that he can find success professionally before I can push his confidence level up.
Aidan Miller – PHI
Expected Projection: .262 | 18.84 HR | 29.69 SB | 21.4% K% | 10.3% BB%
Score: 76.3
This score screams “Phillies Bias”. So, let’s dive into it. Miller has done nothing but produce when on the field. He ranked as a top prospect entering 2026 and would have made his major league debut already if not for a back injury that sidelined him for the majority of the season. At his peak, Miller has 24 home run upside with strong contact skills, and substantial base-stealing upside. At his floor, he figures to run solid on-base numbers with stolen bases, even if the power lags behind. The real downside is that his back injury impacts his game power (a la Christian Yelich). He scored a 57% on the confidence level. The production has been there; now it is about proving he can stay healthy. So far, so good in the Arizona Fall League.
JoJo Parker – TOR
Expected Projection: .253 | 19.5 HR | 15.95 SB | 25.4% K% | 11.8% BB%
Score: 53.8
Right now, JoJo Parker has a very patient approach. This bodes well for his long-term on-base abilities, but it can also lead to elevated strikeout rates. That is ultimately where Parker’s expected projection landed. He has the tools to be a significant dynasty asset. Power is his calling card, but he needs to elevate the ball more to turn his raw pop into game power. Speed is not an elite tool of Parker’s, but he has good awareness and should still easily reach double-digit stolen bases. A younger prospect with a few easy-to-identify flaws, Parker’s confidence score came in at only 45%. Do not be surprised if that confidence score increases substantially in 2027.
Emil Morales – LAD
Expected Projection: .236 | 24.9 HR | 7.5 SB | 28.9% K% | 8.8% BB%
Score: 39.4
At 6’3″ and 191 pounds, Emil Morales has as much physical projection as any prospect on this list. He has easy and effortless power which has already shown up in the stat sheet. His home-run-per-fly-ball rates have been consistently above average, and he has a great feel for getting to his pull side. Morales’ ceiling projection came in at 34 home runs. The issue, and reason his score is so low, is that his projection carries a 35% confidence level. This stems from a sub-70% contact rate and concerns over how well he can limit the strikeouts against better competition. Combine that with a lack of stolen bases, and Morales’ final score came in at only 39.4.
Jhonny Level – SFG
Expected Projection: .259 | 15.95 HR | 19.95 SB | 22.7% K% | 6.2% BB%
Score: 49.2
Jhonny Level does not possess the same upside as some of the other prospects on this list. Standing at 5’8″, Level is unlikely to hit more than 20 home runs in a season. He is a strong athlete, but unlikely to ever reach 25 stolen bases in a single year. So, how does Level rank so high? Despite being only 19 years old, Level still received a 55% confidence level. He swings the bat well from both sides of the plate, with his pull-side awareness evident from the left side. He can be aggressive at times, but pairs that aggression with strong barrel control and contact skills. There is no doubt that he is going to reach double-digit home runs and stolen bases. Level is not a difference-making dynasty asset, but remains a highly ranked prospect.
Jacob Lombard – MIA
Expected Projection: .215 | 19.5 HR | 22.5 SB | 31.1% K% | 8.2% BB%
Score: 34.0
The discourse for Jacob Lombard is similar to that of Grady Emerson: a prep-bat with extreme upside. Lombard flashed both the good and bad in his 22-game professional debut. Lombard has the raw power and speed to become a 30/30 player. He also has the current swing decisions and contact skills to strike out 35% of the time. Both outcomes are in the range of possibilities for Lombard, and the sample size is too small to give a confidence score higher than 30%. His score of 34.0 ranks him much lower than his final prospect list ranking in the 2026 update. More on that to come below.
Luis Peña – MIL
Expected Projection: .253 | 12.62 HR | 25.14 SB | 23.6% K% | 6.3% BB%
Score: 45.0
At this point, it seems like nobody in the dynasty community is totally sure what to make of Luis Peña. The biggest question is whether Peña reaches 20+ home runs. His current ceiling projection halts at 19 based on the fact that he has never posted a HR/FB rate higher than 8.5% and has just 13 career home runs. Peña is also aggressive at the plate, and while his contact skills have remained strong, a 12.2% swinging strike rate is alarming. Fantasy managers can count on stolen bases, but without tangible evidence of a shift in approach or more game power, his confidence level remains down at 42%.
Josuar Gonzalez – SFG
Expected Projection: .266 | 13.52 HR | 21.7 SB | 19.7% K% | 9.8% BB%
Score: 59.2
The only reason that Josuar Gonzalez did not reach 50% confidence is that he is 18 years old with only 31 games of full-season professional ball. However, his polish and approach give him an incredibly safe floor. Gonzalez is a plus runner with great contact skills and enough raw pop to reach 20 home runs at his ceiling. Gonzalez needs to get the ball in the air more (the biggest driver behind the modest home run projection), but he is an excellent blend of floor and ceiling for dynasty managers to target.
Bryce Rainer – DET
Expected Projection: .228 | 22 HR | 15.25 SB | 31.2% K% | 10.8% BB%
Score: 36.2
The raw tools in Bryce Rainer’s profile are extremely loud. He finished 2026 with a HR/FB rate of 32.8%. He is a near lock for 20+ home runs with a ceiling projection of 35. The issue is that Rainer also has a floor of a .210 hitter with a 35% strikeout rate. Rainer’s contact skills are extremely concerning and keep his confidence level down at 35%. The third lowest amongst all shortstops in this activity.
Ethan Holliday – COL
Expected Projection: .236 |24.2 HR | 5.8 SB | 28.8% K% | 10.4% BB%
Score: 37.5
Ethan Holliday came in with the second-highest expected home run total. Holliday also has the third-highest strikeout floor as well as a 40% confidence level. Holliday was in the midst of putting things together when a fractured foot ended his 2026 season. He will be 20 years old when he next touches a professional field with less than 60 games under his belt. Holliday’s power is undeniable, but there is genuine concern over his contact skills. The fact that he does not run much puts more pressure on his hit tool to develop into a stable tool. There is plenty of upside, but also plenty of risk in Holliday’s dynasty profile. That is captured by his 37.5 score.
Aiva Arquette – MIA
Expected Projection: .248 | 19.95 HR | 19.5 SB | 25.0% K% | 6.4% BB%
Score: 50.6
Arquette’s solid score of 50.6 illustrates the value of having home runs and stolen bases in a long-term projection. At his floor, Arquette is a .225 hitter with a near 30% strikeout rate. However, his raw tools give him a base of 15/15 in any given season. He is one of only six shortstops with a cumulative home run/stolen base floor of 30. He also has 25/25 upside if he can refine his approach. More fly balls and less chase should be a point of emphasis for Arquette in 2027.
Arjun Nimmala – LAA
Expected Projection: .251 | 20.4 HR | 6.7 SB | 24.9% K% | 8.4% BB%
Score: 39.2
Arjun Nimmala bounced back after a down 2025, showing off the same power upside dynasty managers saw during his professional debut in 2024. His power surged further following a mid-season trade to the Angels, who helped Nimmala focus on pulling the ball more. This helped create a more stable floor for his power production and fueled an expected home run total north of 20. The biggest issue in Nimalla’s dynasty projection is the lack of stolen bases. He is unlikely to ever steal 10+ bags in a season. This puts more pressure on his other tools to reach their ceilings.
Luis Hernández – SFG
Expected Projection: .254 | 14.9 HR | 14.2 SB | 22.3% K% | 7.1% BB%
Score: 40.7
Luis Hernández carries more projection than Josuar Gonzalez. While Hernández has more physical projection and power ceiling, he also shares similar issues to Gonzalez with the inability to elevate the ball. Hernández also lacks the polish or pure speed that Gonzalez possesses. Hernández is only 17 years old with loads of potential. Right now, his confidence level sits lower at just 35%. That is the primary driver for a lower score of 40.7.
Elian Peña – NYM
Expected Projection: .254 | 12.25 HR | 13.75 SB | 24.5% K% | 9.0% BB%
Score: 33.8
Peña was probably the most difficult projection on this list. He has a pretty left-handed swing that should produce more power as he launches the ball more. He also lacks much projectability in his frame, which is likely to drive down his future stolen base totals. Peña’s approach should at the very least result in strong on-base numbers, but the rest is unknown. He could become a 20/20 player, or 50% of that. His ceiling projection landed at .280, 19 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 12% walk rate. However, a 25% confidence level deflates his overall score.
Felnin Celesten – SEA
Expected Projection: .247 | 16.4 HR | 19.6 SB | 27.0% K% | 6.8% BB%
Score: 40.1
Throughout his professional career, Felnin Celesten has consistently flashed impressive tools followed by stretches of inconsistency. 2026 was no different as Celesten posted career highs in stolen bases and home runs. He also posted an underwhelming 66.7% contact rate following a promotion to Double-A. That sums up Celesten’s projection well. Tools that should produce close to 20/20 production, but a hit tool that still carries significant risk and keeps his score around 40.
Seaver King – WSN
Expected Projection: .260 | 16.5 HR | 16.5 SB | 22.2% K% | 6.5% BB%
Score: 48.4
What is Seaver King’s approach? That is the question to answer. When King is working counts and taking walks, his power takes off. When King is expanding the zone, his power numbers disappear. The ceiling projection for King is a sub-20% strikeout rate with a decent number of walks and 20/20 upside. Right now, I am 50% confident that is what King dynasty managers are getting. That is the prospect who slashed .293/.372/.522 from August forward this past season.
Comparison
The table below outlines the comparison between rankings and the score.
The top of the table is filled with consistency. Jesús Made and Eli Willits scored out as the best shortstop prospects in baseball, validating the end-of-season Prospect List. There was a slight delta between Roch Cholowsky and Franklin Arias. The model seemed to favor the relative safety in Cholowsky’s stolen bases and power production compared to Arias. Even still, both prospects ranked fourth and fifth. However, coming in at third was Aidan Miller. Miller’s stolen base potential was a difference-making skill per the model. This model does not take into account health and durability, which is currently Miller’s biggest concern. With that not factored in, Miller vaults up to third. This is where he ranked on the Prospect List for most of the season before he fell due to some injury fatigue.
Some surprises from the output were Seaver King and Aiva Arquette. Arquette finished 2026 ranked 18th, but the model scored him as the ninth-best shortstop. For Arquette, his end-of-season ranking reflected the concerns present in his hit tool. The one thing that I noticed this model does not do a good job of accounting for is playing time. The assumption here is that even at their floor, a prospect is still receiving a full season’s worth of at-bats. If Arquette were to hit .225 with a 29% strikeout rate (his floor projection), then he is unlikely to receive enough at-bats to hit 15 homers and steal 15 bases. This is an interesting caveat to keep in mind moving forward. However, the model does a good job of pointing out that Arquette’s floor and upside in two main fantasy categories warrant substantial attention from the dynasty community.
There were a few different prospects that the model believes were over-ranked in the final update of 2026. The first two were Emil Morales and Jacob Lombard. For Morales, it was a combination of low confidence and low stolen base projections. Steals are important for shortstops, and a low floor combined with low stolen base totals pushes Morales down this list. During his ranking, his power upside and projectability pushed him up. Perhaps not enough attention was paid to his stolen base totals. For Lombard, his ceiling is massive. 30/40 upside is easy to see. However, there is a big hit-tool concern, and his lack of a track record kept his confidence level down at 30%. Only 10% of this model purely accounts for upside, which punishes a wide projection player like Lombard. While he may be ranked a bit too high, I do not think it is wrong to aggressively rank players with extreme upside.
My Takeaways:
Prospects who should be ranked higher:
Prospects who should be ranked lower:
