For everything the 2025 MLB Draft class lacked, the 2026 class makes up for it right at the top. Roch Cholowsky is the consensus No. 1 overall prospect, and all he has done in two weeks of the college baseball season is further widen the gap between him and his peers. He has done nothing but perform in three seasons at UCLA, and he somehow seems to keep getting better. As of today, Cholowsky seems like a safe bet to go No. 1 overall in this year’s draft, and he has the potential to be a franchise-altering addition for the Chicago White Sox.
Roch Cholowsky: A Superstar in the Making
Elite Power Hitter
When evaluating Cholowsky, it is difficult to know where to start. Through three years of college baseball, he has combined to hit .338/.450/.648 with 37 home runs, 34 doubles, and more walks than strikeouts. In his swan song college season, he has come out of the gates with a .400/.513/1.100 triple slash and six home runs through eight games. This wasn’t against bad competition either; those stats came against a combination of top-10-ranked TCU, UC San Diego, and Tulane, all programs with postseason expectations. He is simply that good.
When looking at the most impressive part of Cholowsky’s game, it is hard to go beyond his ability to hit for power. Standing at 6-foot-2, 200 pounds, he has more of an athletic build than a bruiser’s, but within that frame comes elite power potential. What makes it most significant—and sustainable at the next level—is that his impressive power numbers don’t come from elite exit data. In 2025, he averaged 91.5 mph exit velocity, and even though his power surged in the early part of 2026, he is averaging just 90.9 mph. Not exactly what you would expect from a player with a 1.100 slugging percentage.
Cholowsky’s power comes from his ability to hit the ball in the air, specifically to the pull side. During the 2025 season, he had a 31.3% barrel rate, which puts him in the 98th percentile of the sport. So while he may lack elite overall impact, he makes up for it by hitting the ball hard and in the air. Add in a 45.6% pull rate, and you have the perfect combination for power output. That combination has led to a great career for another former college shortstop, Alex Bregman, and Cholowsky has that skill plus more physicality and power in the tank.
The Overall Hitter Skillset
Players put up strong power numbers all the time in college baseball, but the reality is that this is only part of the puzzle for success in professional baseball. When projecting a player’s future success, that power has to come with bat-to-ball skills and a stable approach. We have already mentioned Cholowsky’s .338 career average, combined with more walks than strikeouts, as a major reason why he can be special, and the data proves that it is not a fluke.
Over his college career, Cholowsky has made contact with 81.8% of the pitches he has swung at. When comparing that number to the 2025 draft class, not a single first-round college prospect had an above-80% contact rate, and it was one of the many reasons for concerns about that college group. If this season is any indication, that number could enter elite territory at 86.9%. That combination of power output and contact skills would put him very close to fellow data darling and 2024 No. 1 overall pick Travis Bazzana.
Anything over 80% is really strong when evaluating first-round talent, and Cholowsky does that without sacrificing any power. The main reason the 2024 draft class was so special was that many of the top talents featured >80% contact rates with above-average power. Cholowsky has both, and an argument can be made for elite power, not just above average.
What are the Concerns?
Since I have painted Cholowsky as the perfect prospect, why isn’t he playing in the MLB at 20 years old? He still has some flaws in his game that could be exposed at the next level.
The first main concern for me would be his tendency to swing at pitches out of the strike zone. During the 2025 season, Cholowsky swung at 23.6% of pitches out of the zone. That number is not bad by any measure (46th percentile), but an aggressive approach can be exposed in professional baseball. I always say that if you are going to chase, you have to make contact, and if you aren’t going to make contact, you can’t chase. Players can outperform either chase or contact concerns simply by not having issues with the other. But a chase tendency can limit overall power output, and as the quality of pitching improves, those tendencies will only become more exposed.
While it is still a very small sample size, Cholowsky has slightly improved in this area. That number has dropped to 18.8%, and if he stays there, he will check every box from a hitter standpoint. While his 2025 OBP was aided by 21 HBPs, his improved swing decisions would make him the most polished all-around hitter in recent draft history.
Conclusion
Cholowsky is really good. His combination of power, above-average contact rates, and improving swing decisions makes him feel like a pretty safe bet to succeed at the next level. In a sport like baseball, nothing is ever guaranteed, but Cholowsky has spent three years showing the player he is and has progressively improved while doing it. If the White Sox choose to go a different route, they will be overcomplicating things and getting too cute with their draft strategy. This feels like a year that ends exactly where it started: Roch Cholowsky as the No. 1 overall pick—and dare I say, it might not even be close by season’s end.
Photo by USA Baseball | Graphic by Carlos Leano
