See The Light

You know who doesn’t get enough love in the fantasy baseball world? Zack Godley. After producing a solid 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks line against the Dodgers last...

You know who doesn’t get enough love in the fantasy baseball world? Zack GodleyAfter producing a solid 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks line against the Dodgers last night, he’s boasting a 2.58 ERA with a 59.5% groundball rate, 8.40 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, and 0.95 WHIP in 11 starts. That K/9 is deflated by a 1 strikeout game earlier this season and he is more of a strikeout-per-inning pitcher who has a Sinker that is incredibly heavy. Those grounders will continue, his Cutter and Curveball will keep getting whiffs – 15.4% and 24.3% rates – and you will be a super happy owner. Yes, the .236 BABIP isn’t sustainable, but even if he holds the 3.11 FIP or even 3.39 xFIP, he’s still golden and I don’t see why he can’t be a 9.00 K/9 with 2.50 BB/9 and 3.30 ERA. That’s legit Top 30 territory…and he’s not owned in a third of leagues. Crazy to me.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Alex Wood – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. Have we given it to him yet? I’m going to say we haven’t. Aces gonna ace. Welcome, wood. You say that a lot, don’t you. …how do you know that.

Parker Bridwell – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Nice job raising that K/9 to 5.13! Small steps Bridwell…small steps…

Andrew Cashner – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Like I’m buying this.

Matt Garza – 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Or this. We all know Garza will be making owners fell like this soon enough.

Blake Snell – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. Of course when Snell does well it comes with four walks in just five frames. That enough should wisen you up not to chase Snell.

Luis Perdomo – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Perdomo got a bit Singled Out here against the Indians and we all would have liked him to go the full six for that Quality Start, but you can’t be too upset here as this was the Indians after all. I still classify Perdomo as a low ceiling decently high floor arm that can be useful in deeper leagues.

Gerrit Cole – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Following a 7 ER blowup against the Giants, Cole comes back with this solid outing against the Phillies. Funny enough, it looked like it was going to be a rough go of it in the first inning, then Cole got into the groove and gave owners the Quality Start. That kind of headache is Cole in a nutshell and while you definitely should be happy about this, it still doesn’t change a whole lot in my head. Cole is never going to be that dude you want to start every time he pitches.

Jon Gray – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Gray survived a night in Coors and even helped himself along the way. I think you’re going to be a happy owner in the second half given the surprisingly good schedule – including dates in Coors – the Rockies have ahead.

Sonny Gray – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Solid Gray, this is what you’re supposed to do against the ChiSox. Can’t say I enjoy you often, but I’d be fine to have you as my #5/6.

Ben Lively – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Raggedy Ann was…blegh against the Pirates as he had 84 pitches through just four frames. I don’t see a reason for you to chase him as he’s your standard Cup of Schmo.

Ervin Santana – 9.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Santana faced a bad team – the Angels – and did well. This is how we should be treating Santana.

Jayson Aquino – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Acquino is a Cup of Schmo so don’t put much stock into this.

Trevor Bauer – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. 7 Ks and a 2.00 WHIP. Yep, that’s Bauer alright.

Ty Blach – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Blach. Are we happy with a PQS from him? I think so…?

John Lackey – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. This is actually kind of fine, but what isn’t is Lackey hitting the DL with plantar faciitis. Now, this could have zero impact given the All-Star break and he would get extended rest anyway, but if this problem sticks, it means Mike Montgomery sticks around even when Kyle Hendricks returns. Or that the Cubs go and get Trevor CahillEither way, you want none of Lackey anymore.

Scott Feldman – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Feldman Schmeldman. 

Doug Fister – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. I want to make Fister jokes. Doug, can you please get the most common injury of 2017 so we can all say the Fister Blister? That’s amazing! My band is called Fister Blister! SEE!? This is the fun stuff we want from you Fister.

Joe Musgrove – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Musgrove returned from a short minor league stint because of David Paulino’s suspension and he’s not making the case to stick around once the rotation is healed up. Good news for Brad Peacock there, though I would like to mention that Musgrove was throwing a ton of strikes in this one. Not that you should do anything with that knowledge, but that’s good to see from Joe.

Mike Pelfrey – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. There were a few weeks we questioned if Pelfrey was actually fantasy relevant and now we’ve woken up next to him and want to forget it ever happened.

Edinson Volquez – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. You didn’t want anything to do with Volquez before and now we see he’s been battling knee problems and might hit the DL. Hear that? No. Of course not, there is no collective sigh here.

Jaime Garcia – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Yeeeeeep. No thanks Garcia.

Daniel Norris – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. Oh what could have been Norris…what could have been…

Marco Estrada – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. Uggggh, get it together Estrada. We know you’re better than this, but I have no qualms dropping him for the Spice Girl of your choice. There’s little reason for you to expect that the next start is going to be the one where it all clicks for him.

Michael Pineda – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Same with you Pineda. I think I have a little more faith in Pineda to produce in the short term, but man he is looking so much like a Cherry Bomb that it hurts.

Mike Leake – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Leake also allowed 5 unearned runs in this one, making it tough for him to survive long. Leake was a super easy guy to label as a TEEs earlier in the year and he’s made it pretty clear who he is now. How could you lie to us like that?!

Ariel Miranda – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. This was a TEEs explosion like we were equipped with a airsoft launcher today. Miranda got shellacked by the Royals and maybe, just maybe, y’all can stop owning him in over 40% of leagues. MAYBE. *Suit man whispers in my ear* You have to be kidding me. Today’s whiffer (I need a term for this, maybe a hitter who struck out all the time? ) was Miranda, who led the league with 18 whiffs, one more than Wood’s 17. Pssssssh.

Jason Vargas – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. But then there’s Vargas, who you should have been starting and he has been denying the baseball gods their justice all season long. Maybe it’s time that he will hit the wall, but just one start isn’t enough for us to give up on him quite yet. I won’t be reactionary here, just understand that his 2.22 ERA prior to this start came with a 4.73 xFIP.

Today’s Streamer

Mike Montgomery vs. Milwaukee Brewers – I think Monty can be beneficial as the Brewers aren’t the scariest of teams out there.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Nick Pivetta vs. San Diego Padres – Pivetta is a guy you want to roll with against weak teams.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Luis Castillo vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Okay, here me out. It’s either Castillo, Andrew Moore against the A’s, or Jhoulys Chacin against the Phillies. I hate trusting Chacin ever, so it’s Moore or Castillo and you guys know how much I love Castillo, I would just feel weird banking on Moore over Castillo. But the matchup is much better…I don’t have a problem going Moore instead, I just need to go with my heart here.

Game of the Day

Chris Sale vs. Jacob Faria – I want to see more of Faria and watching Sale pitch is always a joy.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

9 responses to “See The Light”

  1. why is vargas so highly ranked on your list if, as you mentioned, he has such a high xFIP.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Great point and it was one of those odd situations where I expected him to fall, but there is something to be said about someone pitching on a huge roll for an extended period of time.

      Also, keep in mind that The List is my personal rankings ROS, but also a tool use to gauge trades and Vargas’ stock has been stupidly high because of that sub 2.30 ERA entering yesterday’s game. That alone forced me to place him as high as he was.

  2. jakerg23 says:

    Do we really think Houston can move Peacock back to the pen? Even if they go out and buy an arm he’s been dominant. What do you think?

  3. Jeff says:

    AGA for Wood! All-star snub, but glad you didn’t snub him too. It is well deserved at this point (even though he will never be the Dodgers ace).

  4. Lion says:

    So gald you lead with Godley. I have been feeling the same thing about him and its nice to see it confirmed. stat nerds out there with their spreadsheets (like me) can’t be ignoring him: FIP good, Low XBH%, low WHIP, and when there are people on base… he induces DP’s at 23% rate (1.9 Std Dev above league mean). Though his K-rate is right at league average, swinging strike rate is 23.2% (Thats 2 standard deviations above the league mean)… thats a big deal… those two numbers don’t stay apart for long. DBacks, for some reason, never show up with run support when he pitches… which also can’t last forever.
    Hidden Stud people!

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Godley is good! Godley is great!

      But hold on a second…his overall whiff rate is a fantastic 14.1%, not 23.2%…I’m not sure where you got that number from. Still elite, but not unreal legendary status.

      • Lion says:

        Swinging strike rate is swinging strikes / total strikes, a bit different that whiff (swinging strikes / swings). Usually those numbers end up pretty close to eachother along with k rate for the top guys. So if that gap closes… even if they meet in the middle by getting a bit more control (high 3-0 count% right now). His production could easily align with some high end performers (20-30 ranked guys)

  5. Justin says:

    Love the site, but boy I wish I hadn’t started Monty against the Brew.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Ouch, I’m bound to run into a clunker with these streaming picks, sorry you had to be at the bad end of this one.

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