Seeing Double

(Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

There are things that make me absurdly surprised each season and CC Sabathia’s opening month of 2018 is on the list. After going 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks last night against the Indians, Sabathia is sporting a 1.39 ERA, 18.0% K rate, 3.9% BB rate, and a 0.87 WHIP. What. The. Hell. So there is a great amount of luck involved here – .211 BABIP, 7.3% HR/FB, 81.4% LOB rate – though he’s inducing a marvelous 28.6% soft contact, leading to an xBABIP of .227 (before yesterday). Not that lucky. His cutters are inducing over 50% flyballs with 41% ending as pop-ups – that’s crazy good – and I’m kinda believing in the big guy becoming that crafty pitcher to battle through starts that I wouldn’t award a younger arm. Now he does carry a 4.21 SIERA and that sub 20% K rate is far from amazing. I will say that he should be likely rostered as a Toby in 12-teamers, ready to let go of him in a flash. He did this for a while last year as well and if you want to Vargas Rule this, go right ahead.

Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:

Walker Buehler – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. So this was beautiful. His fastball was looking gorgeous, his breaking stuff was as good as I’ve ever seen it, and you should feel awesome if you grabbed him. I’ll be raising him on Monday plenty – especially since he has a crazy smooth path to innings for a very long time with Ryu out til the ASB – probably inside the Top 50. Kid looks legit right now.

Gerrit Cole – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 16 Ks. No I didn’t lead with Cole. You already know he’s dope, what else do you need to know? I’m taking a clear L here as I was down on Cole in the preseason – a 41.9% K rate after never hitting 25% in his career?! – and now I have to wonder where I slot him on Monday. Thor was going to fall to 8, should Cole sit above him? He’s certainly on one of the best tears we’ve ever seen, but how long will it last? Nah, I need to raise him. I’ll pull him down later once he cools down but if someone is offering you Cole for deGrom, I’m pretty sure you take Cole right now. It’s stupid but just how it is. And enjoy your Gallows Pole at 21 whiffs, you absurd man.

Gio Gonzalez – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Atta babe Gio, I gave you a bit more love this past week and now you hold a 2.33 ERA with a 2.58 FIP…fueled by a 0.23 HR/9. Expect that ERA to land around the 3.60 level, but if you keep up anything close to that 25% K rate I’ll take it all day.

Ian Kennedy – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. You own Kennedy for the strikeout upside. He took care of it against the Tigers. That’s what’s up, just don’t be blind about the matchups and this can be okay.

Miles Mikolas – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. I called Miles “The Peanut” during the cast for being M&M and I need to come up with something better. Why? Because I never really loved peanut M&Ms but I LOVE Mikolas. This was his first real test after looking stellar across three weak opponents and he shut down the Cubs, throwing under 100 pitches to get through seven frames. Yes, I want to see his K rate jump above 20% – I think it will sit around 22-23% when all is said and done – but that 50% GB rate with a 1.2% walk rate is so lovely when you’re pumping 94-95 heat.

Jose Quintana – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. The TIARA was removed and Quintana gave you an unexpected WHIP like your ex—well something that you didn’t want. Velocity was a little low – 91.2mph – but I think you’re completely fine rolling with him moving forward.

Garrett Richards – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. YES RICHARDS. YES. After that atrocity that was his start against the Yankees, this should quell your concerns as he made his way through the Mariner lineup with ease. He gets the Twins next and I’m pumped.

Andrew Kittredge – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. It was a bullpen game for the Rays and Kittredge – Kittredge! got the call today. I’m suddenly getting the urge to watch Mission: Impossible again.

Francisco Liriano – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Wait, Francisco Liriano has a 2.97 ERA? Ohhh it’s a 4.95 SIERA with an 18.6% K rate and 11.4%. .211 BABIp and 8.3% HR/FB rate. For a moment there I thought I was back in 2013.

Daniel Mengden – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Our Call Boy got the job done against the Orioles and probably could have survived another inning but got the early hook at 84 pitches. Astros and Sawx are next, so let him go back to the wire now. Streaming Record: 19-11.

Rick Porcello – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Dude, Porcello just can’t be stopped right now. Between Cole and Porcello, I’m eating crows like a Thenn. Don’t you dare stop tossing Porcello out there.

Sal Romano – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Romano? Aren’t we supposed to not touch you because of an E. Coli outbreak? Lettuce, Nick. Yeah, let us move on, you’re right.

German Marquez – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. During the Reddit AMA, someone presented a wonderful argument talking about Marquez being a must start for this game against the Mets – outside of Coors, two starts of the year weighing down his stats, etc. – And BAM! That dude killed it. You know who won’t kill it? Marquez in a lot of his starts moving forward. Sorry, I totally understand why this one worked, but there’s way too much risk involved here when the variables don’t line up like this one.

Andrew Cashner – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. I Cashed Out. You hopefully Cashed Out. Let’s all throw that dolla dolla in the air because we just don’t care about this stat line. That’s how we celebrate.

J. A. Happ – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. On one hand, 3 ER isn’t as ugly as the rest of the line looks. On the other, his secondary stuff was so blegh that he couldn’t set up guys to chase the high heat. It’s alright, I’m still all in here and keep starting Happ.

Mike Leake – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Blegh. Not much to gain here and there’s a reason why Leake is off The List. Wait, so I’m not supposed to get leeks at the supermarket? The Pitcher List, not your grocery list, we gotta have dem leeks. Phew, scared me for a moment.

Joey Lucchesi – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Is this a Lucchesi? Is it a fuhgeyzi? Whatever, it doesn’t change anything. I felt bad he had to pitch in the rain down in Afric—Mexico.

Chris Stratton – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. I’ll take a PQS for Stratton with 6 Ks after his nightmare start last time out. He gets the Phils next, which is okay, but proceed with caution. Don’t forget the floor.

Jose Berrios – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Berrios threw 17 curveballs. He earned one swing-and-miss and one called strike on them. That’s bad and he should feel bad. On the plus side, his changeup did go 5-for-14 on whiffs, but come on buddy, I have to dock you points again because you’re lost, once again. It’s a little harsher than Bundy’s situation unfortunately as I can see this lasting for a longer period of time. Blegh, he’s going down toward the back of the 30s now.

Wei-Yin Chen – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. We are so far away from the golden days of Chen. Don’t let that nostalgia make you do something stupid here.

Bartolo Colon – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. The Groan Ranger allowed four solo shots and that’s about it. I don’t buy him as an arm you want to roster in 12-teamers, but I can see a situation in 15 teamers that Colon is owned. Don’t like, but I can fathom it.

Carson Fulmer – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Yep. You’re going to have to deal with this Carson daily.

Nick Kingham – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. A little disappointing in the final line, but he actually still pitched pretty well. 18 called strikes on 58 four-seamers is a solid mark and a decent slide piece earned him that 7:1 K per BB. Keep sticking with him.

Josh Tomlin – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Well, yeah. It’s Tomlin.

Junior Guerra – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Blegh. If Guerra wasn’t owned in 40% of leagues, I probably would have picked him as our Call Boy as he faced the Pirates, but this, well, this is bad. Good Guerra is about pumping heaters in the zone and that’s not what we saw yesterday. Don’t count him out yet for future streams, I mean, these starts obviously will happen.

Mike Foltynewicz – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. There’s talk of Folty tipping pitches in this one and it’s 100% right – Nice catch Pitching Ninja! – as he stiffed up his delivery during a good amount of his heaters. I do wonder if that note is a curse, though. It presents a convenient excuse for this bad outing while Folty has been pitching above his weight this season and some regression was innately expected – 29% K rate with a 10% whiff rate? Naaaaah – and I’d actually love to sell high if someone is into the tipping narrative.

Nick Pivetta – 1.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. So this is a terrible start. I feel bad for Pivetta as he allowed two longballs to Bryce Harper and struggled to get strikes with his breaking stuff. We don’t want a Pivetta relying on his heater to get by. This is what that looks like. Some of you will drop him, that’s okay, but I won’t be doing that. Every starter in the bigs has bad starts during the year. It’s about the 2nd and 3rd starts after that really matter. Stick with this one for now as y’all know how good Pivetta can be.

Kris Medlen – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. I wonder if there is a teacher out there who would never have started Medlen, but Medlen’s kiddos are in his class so he put faith in their father. After reading this line, I can see him now, screaming at his phone…And I would have never started you if it weren’t for those Medlen kids!

Zach Wheeler – 6.0 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Hooooo boy. There is innate risk with Wheeler but this was something else right out of the gate. To his credit, he allowed five ER before getting his second out, and that got into a small groove after. Nevertheless, you can go ahead and drop him for a streamer spot.

Today’s Streamer

Caleb Smith vs. Cincinnati Reds – Dude has fanned 19 in his last two games and gets the weak Reds offense. Go for it. Tyler Mahle against the Marlins on the other side of it can also work out well.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Kyle Gibson vs. Chicago White Sox – He has the K upside against a meh offense to make this work. I’d roll with Mike Soroka as well, but you guys are smart and have already picked him up in over 30% of leagues.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Fernando Romero vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Given only seven games and limited choices, it’s between Romero and Homer Bailey against the Mets. I’m totally undecided, so I’m going with more exciting player.

Game of the Day

Charlie Morton vs. Zack Greinke – Can Morton keep it up? Will Greinke silence the haters?