Shortstop Dynasty Prospect Comps

Every year, thousands of kids fall in love with baseball and begin to dream about playing shortstop in the major leagues for their favorite teams. A decade later (give or take), a small handful of these kids find themselves among the elite young talent on display in the minor leagues, and on the cusp of realizing their dream.

Both in real life and in fantasy, the shortstop position is crucial to team success. Per NFBC’s ABP, five of the top 15 picks in fantasy drafts this season were shortstops. An elite shortstop raises the ceiling of a roster, both on computer screens and in major league stadiums around the country.

Here’s how some of the top shortstop prospects compare to season-long performances from past players, and what they project to do in the future.

 

Shortstop Dynasty Comps

 

Carson Williams – TBR

 

Dynasty Floor Comp: 2021 Niko Goodrum

.214 AVG | .292 OBP | .359 SLG | 9 HR | 14 SB | 32.9 K% | 8.9 BB%

Before we jump in, it should be noted that all of these floors are the “worst-case scenarios” for these prospects. Meaning that these marks are the absolute lowest value these players could reach. In the case of Williams, these stats would demonstrate that he did not overcome the strikeout issues that have plagued him in the minors (28.5% strikeout rate, 68.5% contact rate in 2024). The power tool and steals are still evident in this scenario, but it’s hard to have offensive impact when almost a third of your plate appearances end with a walk back to the dugout.

Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2023 Trea Turner

.266 AVG | .320 OBP | .459 SLG | 26 HR | 30 SB | 21.7 K% | 6.5 BB%

As is the case with the floor, the ceiling represents a very aggressive projection given the tools and talent that the prospect has displayed. In Williams’ case, these numbers are what he could reach if he keeps developing his swing to generate power (23 home runs in 2023, 20 in ’24) and stays healthy enough to retain his speed (53 steals in the past two seasons). This also assumes that major adjustments are made with his bat-to-ball tool before reaching the majors. While his strikeout rate in his career has been close to 30%, he made some progress last season, dropping his strikeout rate by three percent between 2023 and 2024. If that trend continues, his ceiling will rise tremendously.

True Projection:

The sky could be the limit for Williams. He has really good pop in his bat for a shortstop and steals a ton of bases. Both of those factors instantly make him a valuable asset for fantasy managers. In real life, Williams is also an extremely good defender. In just under 1,000 innings at short, he made just nine errors. While this has little impact in fantasy, it should keep him in future lineups even if his offensive production goes cold. Looking forward, 20 homers a season doesn’t feel like an overreaction, especially after watching his swing. If he parlays that with 25-30 steals a season, he becomes a top-of-the-line shortstop for fantasy purposes. His hit tool will limit his ceiling for now, but improvements in that area could vault him into the Rays lineup sooner rather than later.

 

Sebastian Walcott – TEX

 

Dynasty Floor Comp: 2021 Trevor Story

.251 AVG | .329 OBP | .471 SLG | 24 HR | 20 SB | 23.9 K% | 8.9BB%

Walcott arguably has the highest floor among any of the prospects mentioned in this article. There has been buzz that he’s “future #1 prospect in baseball” material, and it’s easy to see why. He’s a physically imposing shortstop with easy pop and plus speed. The one red flag was a near-30% strikeout rate in 2023, but he cut that rate by almost 5% last year. Even as a youngster, his walk rate has stayed above 10% in both of his professional seasons. As he gets older, his ability to cut strikeouts and keep taking walks should at least stay consistent, if not get better. There’s plenty of reason to believe that, at a minimum, Walcott will be a 1.5-2 WAR player when he reaches the majors.

Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2021 Fernando Tatis Jr. 

.282 AVG | .364 OBP | .517 SLG | 42 HR | 25 SB | 28.0 K% | 11.4 BB%

I’ll be the first to admit that this comparison is about as aggressive as it gets, but if anyone has the talent to reach Tatis’ level, it’s Walcott. His 6’4″ frame at 18 years old tells me that there’s room to add even more power potential than he already has. In his first 169 professional games, as a teenager no less, he’s hit 18 homers and has a .798 OPS. The experience he’s getting in the minors will allow him to build on these numbers and improve on them in the coming years. Walcott’s swing is violent, and it’s already produced some highlight-reel-worthy dingers in his short career.

True Projection:

Trying to project an eighteen-year-old with less than 200 games of professional baseball experience is always a challenge. There are so many factors that could increase or decrease his chances of being a success at the major league level. However, the talent he possesses, even at his tender age, is undeniable. Walcott was one of 13 teenagers (min. 400 at-bats) to finish with a wRC+ of 110 or more and is one of just three of those names to reach AA. The buzz around Walcott is already starting, and I don’t expect it to stop anytime soon. He has the potential to be a 30 home run/30 stolen base caliber player in the future, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he eclipsed even those lofty numbers.

 

Leodalis De Vries – SDP

 

Dynasty Floor Comp: 2024 Anthony Volpe

.243 AVG | .293 OBP | .364 SLG | 12 HR | 28 SB | 22.6 K% | 6.1 BB%

De Vries put up good counting stats (11 home runs, 13 steals) in 75 games at High-A, and his walk/strikeout rates were impressive when you consider his age. That said, he did hit .237 and really struggled in the AFL. Yes, he was 17, and facing much older competition, but baseball is a brutal game. Pitchers get better as the competition level increases. If De Vries fails to adjust adequately (or if the Padres rush him before he’s ready) as he rises through the levels, his development could be stunted. He will demonstrate plenty of power, and his speed is hard to deny, but it’s not unfathomable to see his average/on-base stats fall to this level if something goes wrong.

Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2024 Francisco Lindor

.273 AVG | .344 OBP | .500 SLG | 33 HR | 29 SB | 18.4 K% | 8.1 BB%

On paper, this is an easy comparison. Both are switch-hitting shortstops standing around 6’0″ tall, and both have a mix of power and speed that propels them into the “elite” conversations for their age groups. Lindor has grown into one of the bona-fide superstars of our game. De Vries could follow suit in the next half-decade if everything goes right. He has similar swing/take numbers to Lindor, and has shown serious pop and speed in his first stint in professional baseball. If he continues to build on his first 75 games that excited the baseball community, he could be a star soon.

True Projection:

One of the other 13 teenagers, alongside Walcott, with a wRC+ of 110+? Leodalis De Vries. The two shortstops sit side-by-side in MLB’s top 100 prospect list (Walcott: #17, De Vries: #18) and project to be somewhat similar players. While I don’t think De Vries ever eclipses the mid-to-high 30s in homers or steals, he should sit comfortably in the 25-30 range in both categories. Like all 17-year-olds are, he’s still raw and has a way to go in terms of development. That said, the Padres could have a true difference-maker on their hands.

 

JJ Wetherholt – STL

Dynasty Floor Comp: 2017 Carlos González

.262 AVG | .339 OBP | .423 SLG | 14 HR | 3 SB | 22.3 K% | 10.5 BB%

I feel like I’m cheating slightly because CarGo obviously didn’t play infield, but I think the stat line translates well. This projection is based purely on the hypothetical notion that Wetherholt’s power tool never reaches its full potential, which lowers his value immensely. His approach has remained consistent at the plate, generating more strikeouts than walks in his college years and first stint in pro ball. However, many prospects with similar track records have struggled to adjust to pitching at the higher levels (see: Jacob Gonzalez). A 22% strikeout rate may be a little bit harsh for Wetherholt, but it’s far from impossible. Even if this is the level that he gets to, 14 homers and a .762 OPS is far from a horrific season.

Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2016 Josh Donaldson

.284 AVG | .404 OBP | .549 SLG | 37 HR | 7 SB | 17.0 K% | 15.6 BB%

Donaldson finished fourth in the MVP voting in 2016, which should tell you how highly I rate Wetherholt. There’s a reason why he was getting serious attention as a potential #1 pick before the college season last year. Even in his first 29 games as a pro, he’s been incredibly impressive. A 137 wRC+ with seven extra-base hits isn’t too bad for a guy who was playing in the Big 12 just weeks before. It’s a small sample size against fairly weak competition, but an 83.7% contact rate and CSW% under 22% indicate that the only way is up for Wetherholt.

True Projection:

If I had to guess right now, I’d argue that it’s more likely that Wetherholt reaches his ceiling than regress to his floor. He’s got all of the green flags that you want to see in a prospect, especially for fantasy purposes. Wetherholt gives you legitimate power upside without sacrificing OBP or dealing with strikeout risk. Sure, 35-40 homers may have been a tad aggressive, but Wetherholt hits the ball HARD and has the approach to give himself plenty of chances to succeed. A more realistic projection would land him in the 23-27 range, and could even see him flirt with 30+. The one downside is that he’s not a shortstop who is going to be a factor in the stolen base department. After 36 swiped bases in 2023 with West Virginia, he only managed eight between college and pro ball last season. Even without that tool, he still projects as a guy who could end up being among the top-20 fantasy shortstops within the next few seasons.

 

Jacob Wilson – OAK

 

Dynasty Floor Comp: 2017 Dustin Pedroia 

.293 AVG | .369 OBP | .392 SLG | 7 HR | 4 SB | 10.4 K% | 10.6 BB%

Wilson’s future likely lies at the shortstop position, but Pedroia’s numbers from this season seem like a good floor to start when looking at Wilson. This scenario would likely occur if Wilson suffered from some bad batted-ball luck or somehow regressed in terms of his bat-to-ball ability. He’s never going to be a player that you can rely on in the home run or stolen base department, but he should maintain average-to-high batting averages and on-base rates throughout his career.

Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2016 DJ LeMahieu

.348 AVG | .416 OBP | .495 SLG | 11 HR | 11 SB | 12.6 K% | 10.4 BB%

Yes, I think Wilson can hit .350 over the course of a full season. There’s little to no evidence throughout his professional career that indicates that a mark that high is out of the question. Before getting the call to the majors, Wilson was hitting .433 in the minor leagues. Yes, that average regressed after joining the A’s, but a 28-game sample size shouldn’t devalue the elite bat-to-ball ability he exhibited before that. Wilson’s ability to make contact, especially in the zone, is remarkable (93.5% Z-Contact rate, 5.7% swinging-strike rate). He also showed some pop in the minors (7 home runs) and is a good enough athlete to nab a bag if he needs to.

True Projection:

Trying to find comparisons for Wilson was (to put it lightly) a challenge. The 22-year-old shortstop has one of the most unique offensive profiles in all of baseball. His bat-to-ball tool and ability to generate base hits is as good as Luis Arraez’s, but with more power. In 5×5 leagues, his ability to generate AVG and OBP will be immensely valuable, even if his counting stats aren’t as impressive. Wilson will likely be the Athletics’ Opening Day shortstop, assuming he bounces back from injury well during the spring, so proximity makes him an attractive target as well. He should hit well above .300 and keep his OBP around the .400 mark. Wilson could flirt with double-digits in both home runs and stolen bases, but I expect him to settle into the six to nine range in both.

Photo by Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Bsky/Twitter)