Welcome back to Sit/Start, where we review all expected starting pitcher matchups for the week ahead. I will be carrying over the ranking system from previous years. There are three labels: Start, Maybe, and Sit.
Starts are surefire starts for those particular pitchers. This does not mean they are incapable of having a bad outing, but I consider them more likely than not to have a good outing if they are designated as a Start. However, the degree of confidence I have in a pitcher to have a strong outing is judged by their number in the tier. For example, I am much more confident that a Start-10 will have a good outing than a Start-7, even though I expect both to perform well. The same goes for the other tiers.
Maybes are starts that are a bit riskier, but depending on your league size or roster requirements, they may need to be used. Sits are pitchers that you should look to avoid using unless absolutely necessary. A Start-10 is a pitcher who I believe will almost definitely have a strong outing: for example, a healthy and undeniable ace against a poor offensive team is going to be a Start-10. A Sit-1 is a pitcher who, under no circumstances, should you consider starting.
For some housekeeping, I will try my best to update these at least once after they go live, but there is a ton of schedule and rotation shuffling. I apologize ahead of time if something is not currently in the table below.
Without further ado, let’s see how your rotation is shaping up for this week. Feel free to question my rankings in the comments, and let’s discuss!
It’s deGrom Sunday, not Rocker.
I’m looking at the graphic and wondering, “How can I start Kershaw?”
Jose Soriano a 2 v. White Sox?!
Can you explain your methodology for determining your 0-10 ranks? What criteria are you looking at?
While some of these may seem relatively self-evident, far more are murkier. It’d be immensely helpful to know if you’re looking, for example, at the same spring training pitch data that Nick references in his daily SP Roundups; whether you’re taking into account the handedness and swing/performance tendencies of the projected opposing lineups, etc.
As it is, this just sort of feels like one person’s black box rankings and it doesn’t really hold up to the standards that some of your colleagues have established for their analysis.
In a QS league with a starts limit, do you lean towards waiting a few starts to throw non-elite SP out there as they build up the capacity to go deeper into games?
I just have a hard time seeing the rational behind starting any good pitchers against the Braves… They have 5 guys in a row that i’d be scared to face. Cease should be more like a 6. Yesterday I gave Michael King a 4 and I was right. Why start pitchers against top 5 batting teams?
Agreed. Some of it seems contrary to what Nick is writing about and discussing on the pods.
^^ Agreed with Mitch. Tried to reply to his comment.