Welcome back to Sit/Start, where we review all expected starting pitcher matchups for the week ahead. I will be carrying over the ranking system from previous years. There are three labels: Start, Maybe, and Sit.
Starts are surefire starts for those particular pitchers. This does not mean they are incapable of having a bad outing, but I consider them more likely than not to have a good outing if they are designated as a Start. However, the degree of confidence I have in a pitcher to have a strong outing is judged by their number in the tier. For example, I am much more confident that a Start-10 will have a good outing than a Start-7, even though I expect both to perform well. The same goes for the other tiers.
Maybes are starts that are a bit riskier, but depending on your league size or roster requirements, they may need to be used. Sits are pitchers that you should look to avoid using unless absolutely necessary. A Start-10 is a pitcher who I believe will almost definitely have a strong outing: for example, a healthy and undeniable ace against a poor offensive team is going to be a Start-10. A Sit-1 is a pitcher who, under no circumstances, should you consider starting.
For some housekeeping, I will try my best to update these at least once after they go live, but there is a ton of schedule and rotation shuffling. I apologize ahead of time if something is not currently in the table below.
Without further ado, let’s see how your rotation is shaping up for this week. Feel free to question my rankings in the comments, and let’s discuss!
It’s deGrom Sunday, not Rocker.
I’m looking at the graphic and wondering, “How can I start Kershaw?”
Jose Soriano a 2 v. White Sox?!
Can you explain your methodology for determining your 0-10 ranks? What criteria are you looking at?
While some of these may seem relatively self-evident, far more are murkier. It’d be immensely helpful to know if you’re looking, for example, at the same spring training pitch data that Nick references in his daily SP Roundups; whether you’re taking into account the handedness and swing/performance tendencies of the projected opposing lineups, etc.
As it is, this just sort of feels like one person’s black box rankings and it doesn’t really hold up to the standards that some of your colleagues have established for their analysis.
To be completely honest with you, you’re not too far off when it’s this early in the season. We just don’t have a large sample size of data yet, and we can’t always rely in past year’s data to give us an accurate representation of this year. For that reason, it is a lot murkier early this season, but I will say that they should largely line up with Nick’s rankings beyond some of my own personal preferences and insights. Once we get a couple weeks into the season though, we have more data to go off of, and I do have more data-based rankings that take into account the things you mentioned. The further on the season goes, the more we have to fall back on, and they more confident I am in these rankings (and vice versa). For the early season, it is still a lot of guys finding footing, stretching out, some in cold weather, etc., so it is trying to put numbers on an amorphous blob.
In a QS league with a starts limit, do you lean towards waiting a few starts to throw non-elite SP out there as they build up the capacity to go deeper into games?
I would probably do that if you have alternatives. A lot of these pitchers are not going to go deep into games for their first few starts, but you also run that risk with a fringe SP anyway. It really just comes down to your alternatives and how good you feel about them.
I just have a hard time seeing the rational behind starting any good pitchers against the Braves… They have 5 guys in a row that i’d be scared to face. Cease should be more like a 6. Yesterday I gave Michael King a 4 and I was right. Why start pitchers against top 5 batting teams?
This is a good point, but even good teams have bad nights. Good players can go 0-4 on a night. I always rely on my aces and try not to overthink that. Beyond those pitchers though is when you can play matchups.
Agreed. Some of it seems contrary to what Nick is writing about and discussing on the pods.
^^ Agreed with Mitch. Tried to reply to his comment.