Welcome back to Sit/Start, where every Saturday here at Pitcher List, we review all expected starting pitcher matchups for the week ahead. I will be carrying over Max Freeze’s ranking system from last year. There are three labels: Start, Maybe, and Sit. Starts are sure-fire starts for those particular pitchers. This does not mean that they are incapable of having a bad outing, but I consider them more likely than not to have a good outing if they are designated as a Start. However, the degree of confidence I have in a pitcher to have a strong outing is judged by their number in the tier. For example, I am much more confident that a Start-10 will have a good outing over a Start-7, even though I expect both to perform well. The same goes for the other tiers. Maybes are starts that are a bit riskier, but depending on your league size or roster requirements, they may need to be used. A Start-10 is a pitcher who I believe will almost definitely have a strong outing, for example Shane Bieber at the Detroit Tigers. A Sit-1 is a pitcher who under no circumstances you should consider starting.
There are quite a few TBD pitchers this week. Since it is opening weekend, a lot of teams have yet to solidify their starting rotation and order. In the coming weeks, there should be significantly fewer of these. I will try to update the TBDs as they are defined. Take a look below, and see how your rotation shapes up this week. Feel free to question my rankings in the comments, and let’s discuss!
Date | Game | Away Pitcher | Sit / Start | Home Pitcher | Sit / Start |
Thursday – 4/1 | |||||
4/1 | TOR at NYY | Ryu | Start-7 | Cole | Start-9 |
4/1 | CLE at DET | Bieber | Start-10 | Boyd | Sit-3 |
4/1 | BAL at BOS | Means | Maybe-5 | Eovaldi | Start-7 |
4/1 | MIN at MIL | Maeda | Start-8 | Woodruff | Start-7 |
4/1 | PIT at CHC | Kuhl | Sit-2 | Hendricks | Start-9 |
4/1 | ATL at PHI | Fried | Maybe-6 | Nola | Start-7 |
4/1 | ARI at SDP | Bumgarner | Sit-1 | Darvish | Start-10 |
4/1 | LAD at COL | Kershaw | Start-7 | Marquez | Sit-2 |
4/1 | STL at CIN | Flaherty | Start-7 | Castillo | Start-8 |
4/1 | TBR at MIA | Glasnow | Start-7 | Alcantara | Maybe-6 |
4/1 | TEX at KCR | Gibson | Maybe-4 | Keller | Start-7 |
4/1 | NYM at WSN | deGrom | Start-9 | Scherzer | Start-8 |
4/1 | CHW at LAA | Giolito | Start-9 | Bundy | Start-7 |
4/1 | HOU at OAK | Greinke | Start-8 | Bassitt | Maybe-4 |
4/1 | SFG at SEA | Gausman | Start-8 | Gonzales | Start-7 |
Friday – 4/2 | |||||
4/2 | TBR at MIA | Yarbrough | Maybe-5 | Lopez | Start-8 |
4/2 | LAD at COL | Bauer | Start-7 | Senzatela | Sit-1 |
4/2 | CHW at LAA | Keuchel | Maybe-6 | Heaney | Maybe-4 |
4/2 | HOU at OAK | Javier | Sit-3 | Luzardo | Maybe-6 |
4/2 | ARI at SDP | Kelly | Sit-2 | Snell | Start-8 |
4/2 | SFG at SEA | Cueto | Maybe-4 | Paxton | Maybe-6 |
Saturday – 4/3 | |||||
4/3 | TOR at NYY | TBD | Kluber | Maybe-6 | |
4/3 | CLE at DET | Plesac | Start-8 | Teheran | Sit-1 |
4/3 | BAL at BOS | Harvey | Sit-1 | TBD | |
4/3 | MIN at MIL | Berrios | Maybe-6 | Burnes | Start-7 |
4/3 | PIT at CHC | TBD | Arrieta | Maybe-5 | |
4/3 | ATL at PHI | Morton | Maybe-6 | Wheeler | Maybe-6 |
4/3 | ARI at SDP | Smith | Sit-1 | TBD | |
4/3 | LAD at COL | Buehler | Start-7 | Gray | Sit-1 |
4/3 | STL at CIN | Wainwright | Maybe-5 | Mahle | Maybe-6 |
4/3 | TBR at MIA | Hill | Sit-3 | TBD | |
4/3 | TEX at KCR | Arihara | Sit-3 | Minor | Maybe-4 |
4/3 | NYM at WSN | Stroman | Maybe-5 | TBD | |
4/3 | CHW at LAA | Lynn | Maybe-6 | Cobb | Sit-2 |
4/3 | HOU at OAK | McCullers Jr. | Maybe-5 | TBD | |
4/3 | SFG at SEA | Webb | Sit-3 | Flexen | Sit-1 |
Sunday – 4/4 | |||||
4/4 | TOR at NYY | TBD | German | Maybe-5 | |
4/4 | CLE at DET | Civale | Start-8 | Skubal | Sit-3 |
4/4 | BAL at BOS | Zimmerman | Sit-3 | TBD | |
4/4 | MIN at MIL | TBD | Houser | Sit-3 | |
4/4 | PIT at CHC | TBD | Davies | Maybe-6 | |
4/4 | ATL at PHI | Anderson | Start-8 | Eflin | Maybe-5 |
4/4 | ARI at SDP | Widener | Sit-1 | TBD | |
4/4 | LAD at COL | Urias | Maybe-4 | Gomber | Sit-1 |
4/4 | STL at CIN | Martinez | Sit-2 | TBD | |
4/4 | TEX at KCR | Lyles | Sit-1 | Singer | Maybe-6 |
4/4 | NYM at WSN | Peterson | Sit-2 | TBD | |
4/4 | CHW at LAA | Cease | Sit-1 | Ohtani | Maybe-5 |
4/4 | HOU at OAK | Urquidy | Maybe-4 | TBD |
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
Why sit Detroit pitching vs the Indians?
It’s less about Cleveland being a formidable matchup than Detroit’s rotation being pretty much unstartable for a while. Even though there are some interesting arms, I need to see a lot more before I feel comfortable starting any of them. Boyd, especially, is susceptible to massive blow-up games as opposed to simply underwhelming starts.
Ohtani is going Sunday against the Sox. I’m curious about how you rank that matchup.
I’ll probably update this tomorrow evening with a better answer and more confirmed starters, but I’m probably at about a 5 with Ohtani.
Probably? Maybe?
Nope, no update.
why is heaney vs CHW a 4?
Heaney consistently has great swinging strike rates and finished with a 3.79 FIP last year. His spring has left a lot to be desired, but Heaney has substantial upside in general. Against a lineup without Eloy, I think he could surprise. To be clear, he is a 4, so I’m not super confident in him (due to the aforementioned poor spring performance and his inability to put it all together season after season).
Yeah, why wouldn’t he be a 4? He’s certainly got potential, but I’ve only been disappointed in the results for YEARS.