Snell Ya Later

Yesterday had a good amount of interesting starts but the one that stood out like Dellin Betances in Japan was Blake Snell tossing an absolute gem against the Mariners via 7.0...

Yesterday had a good amount of interesting starts but the one that stood out like Dellin Betances in Japan was Blake Snell tossing an absolute gem against the Mariners via 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Here are some fun stats about Snell to put this in context: It’s just the fourth start of the year above 5 strikeouts. Only the fifth time going 1 ER or fewer in 17 outings. Just the second time he’s held a WHIP under 1.00. Only the fifth time he completed at least six innings. You get the idea, this was ridiculously good. He threw more Curveballs at the cost of Sliders for the second start in a row (prior start was 4 ER in 6.0 IP…) and had the second highest whiff rate of the season at 13.9%. First pitch strikes were still low at 45.8% and under 60% strikes overall, which is not what we want to see from Snell. I’m not taking this start all too seriously and I don’t think Snell has turned a corner. He has gotten a little extra movement with his Curveball since the start of July, though I don’t think that’s the big change that will save his season. I have an eyebrow raised, but not enough for me to start trusting it for my leagues.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Gio Gonzalez – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. It’s really crazy how Gio just keeps defying his FIP/xFIP. I’m most curious about his 2018 draft stock since some will say “pffft, he’ll regress” and others will say “dope strikeouts and ERA.” Probably one of the largest ranges in ADP you’ll see.

Danny Salazar – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 12 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Well well well. Salazar had been destroying lineups left and right and he got Singled Out by the Royals. The biggest fear from Salazar were starts like these…but I’m not going to hate on this like you think I might. Whiffs were still excellent, 10 of those 12 hits were Singles and he allowed just one walk. This is more bad luck that Salazar being hittable like we’ve seen in the past.

Miguel Gonzalez – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Miguel…no.

Sean Newcomb – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks. Leave it to Newcomb to allowed 0 ER and have a 2.00 WHIP. But of course the Ks are there, right? RIGHT? I get your pain random person. This isn’t what we signed up for. Why are we signing up? I don’t know…

Chase Anderson – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Great to see Anderson starting again, though this was a clear DLH as he’d miss a ton of time + had to do it in Coors. You may be thinking that he’s golden after a first start like this, but what’s more important is his velocity. If you remember why we were super high on him during his incredible six game stretch prior to injury, it’s because his velocity jumped as high as 95mph+, two points over his 93mph average prior.

Madison Bumgarner – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Here’s to a successful road to the end.

Adam Conley – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 11 Ks. Holy Wade Boggs’ Mustache! Conley was on against the Mets as he earned his first Gallows Pole via 18 whiffs. He was spotting his Fastball and had a 42% whiff rate on his Slider, which is all you need to know. The problem here is that it’s so inconsistent as it came off a start with 3 walks and zero strikeouts against the Giants. He’s a Cherry Bomb and as long as you treat him like such, he can be a worthy gamble.

Brad Peacock – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Okay Peacock, the WHIP is a little too high, but I can’t be mad at you. You’re killing it and we can all get behind that.

Rick Porcello – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. I’m totally cool with this against the Yankees. Can’t say I’m ready to trust down the stretch, but we’re getting there.

Justin Verlander – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Verlander struggled against the Rangers but rebounded in a huge way against the Dodgers and it’s a beautiful thing. A 2.36 ERA with a 9.89 K/9 and 2.51 BB/9 across his last nine starts with a near 7.0 IPS. He’s getting near AGA territory…

Parker Bridwell – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Ehhhhh it’s pretty boring. But that’s kinda what you expect having a Parker Bros. night.

Luis Castillo – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. I’m a little annoyed that they didn’t let Castillo pitch more, but he was already at 90 pitches and they gave him the early hook. Fine. Gotta love that 18.00 K/9…Streamer Record 65-47-14.

Jharel Cotton – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Hey, Cotton did something that has some sort of value! With a 2:3 K per walk! Womp womp.

Kyle Freeland – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 7 Ks. Look at this start. Just look at it. We know Freeland can’t keep up those strikeouts, but we know the WHIP isn’t far from the truth. Is this what you want from a guy in Coors?

Sonny Gray – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. Zero strikeouts Gray? HOW AM I SUPPOSED TO FEED MY FAMILY WITH THIS. There is something to be said about how many foul balls Gray allowed in this one, which is a stat that should be wildly accessible as it often indicates if a pitcher’s stuff is as sharp as it normally is. Are whiffs down and fouls up? That means batters are getting better swings on his pitches. It’s what happened here against the Sawx leading to a high pitch count quickly and zero strikeouts. Still a fan of Gray, but this was far from his best.

Edward Lively – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. So this is Ben with a new name for those that were wondering, but he still has the same name to me: Raggedy Ann. It’s a Minority Report joke and I like it. Don’t pursue this.

Marco Estrada – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. I think I’ll take a PQS from Estrada with a 1.00 WHIP. Yes I want more Ks, but this is fine.

Yovani Gallardo – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Sure, whatever Gallardo.

A.J. Griffin – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Blegh. Griffin is kinda lame and was only considered as a questionable arm last week for two-start pitchers even with good matchups. I’d hate to roll with him consistently.

Jason Hammel – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Like Estrada, I’ll take a PQS from Hammel with the 1.00 WHIP despite the low strikeout total. I’ll say it again for the 100th time, Hammel has been surprisingly decent in Quality Start leagues.

Kyle Hendricks – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Ehhh sure, this is pretty much what you’re hoping for from Hendricks save one fewer ER. Can’t say I like chasing it, but he’s a Toby alright.

Dinelson Lamet – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 6 BBs, 8 Ks. The Ks are there because his Slider will get them. The problem is clear with his walk rate and that’s just not going to go away. This was also a pretty easy sit with the Nationals going, save for your special scenario in a H2H league on a Sunday. I don’t like Lamet’s ROS schedule, making him fall more than others, but I think you’re okay starting him against the Marlins next.

Ivan Nova – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Yep, that’s Nova alright. Super boring per usual.

Bartolo Colon – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Another start from Paul Funyun that doesn’t excite but doesn’t get him DFA’d. That’s all we want.

Kenta Maeda – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Maeda managed to get through six frames finally and did so while going perfect through the first five. But of course it collapsed in the sixth. Roberts was on to something all along…

Chris Tillman – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 6 BBs, 2 Ks. You Can’t Spell Win With Tillman. Easily the best shirt that I own. (I’m dead serious)

Jacob deGrom – 6.1 IP, 5 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. What is it with you and Greinke? This is supposed to be a fun and competitive battle, not a “no, you ahead of me, I insist.” This start is a bit worse than due to a three-run bomb by Stanton in the seventh, and deGrom was super close to getting out this one with a studly line. So it goes.

Mike Leake – 3.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. I’m going to have an article during the first week of the off-season titled “The 10 Fantasy Baseball Storylines To Remember From 2017”. Leake’s incredible start to the season is definitely going to be there as it’s a lesson for future seasons.

T.J. McFarland – 0.1 IP, 7 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. Who? You’re on a need-to-know basis. No reason to know about this Cup of Schmo. 

Today’s Streamer

Tyler Skaggs vs. Texas Rangers – As much as I don’t want to trust Skaggs and his two-pitch approach, he’s the best choice of the lot. Chris Stratton is getting another chance in the rotation and faces the Brewers, and I’m more inclined to go with him over Stratton. His Fastball command could elude him and he’ll fall on his face, but I’ll take my chances over Skaggs.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Nick Pivetta vs. Miami Marlins – This was a tough one as I was oddly tempted to take possible Dodger starter Brock Stewart against the Pirates, but he’ll be limited pitch-wise as he hasn’t been stretched out. Then there’s Clayton Richard against the Cardinals, but come on, that’s the wrong Clayton. The last choice was Paul Blackburn against the Orioles, which could work, but that reads super prone to getting lit up and I’d rather chase Pivetta’s strikeout upside instead.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Andrew Heaney vs. Texas Rangers – I don’t think he’ll allow 4 HR again and the other options are Matt Moore vs the Brewers , who I never want to trust and Austin Pruitt against the Jays, which just doesn’t seem like it has a high enough ceiling.

Game of the Day

Mike Clevinger vs. Eduardo Rodriguez – Two intriguing arms that could both dominate…or leave before the end of the fifth. Alex Wood vs. Gerrit Cole should be a fun one as well.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

12 responses to “Snell Ya Later”

  1. Kyle says:

    Hey, Nick!

    I think last week you mentioned a follow-up Faria piece that’s incoming. Any reason not to believe that his recent performance should be attributed to the “abdominal strain” that he’s on the DL for?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I guess we’ll find out!

      Staff writer Ian Post is on a plane now heading down to Tampa Bay to have an interview with Faria tomorrow. Looking forward to hearing all about it!

  2. Vinny says:

    Hey Nick,

    Are you rolling the dice with Clevinger today or benching him until he gets the Royals over the weekend?

    Also, I’m going to order a shirt but I’m stuck between the AGA and Knuckleballer shirt. Can you steer me one way or the other??

    • Nick Pollack says:

      I think you’re okay starting Clev tonight. He looked excellent last time out.

      I personally love the Knuckleballer one as its blue sticks out a bit more than the Black/White of AGA.

      Thanks for the support! Really appreciate it.

  3. Scott says:

    I read your recent post about Mchugh where you show him lined up to face @LAA, TEX, @SEA, @OAK, SEA, CWS, @TEX. I am looking at the schedule and i see him set to face: @LAA, vs TX, @SEA, @LAA, vs SEA, vs LAA, @BOS. Dont know if i am right. But does that tweak change your opinion about him ROS? That is a lot of Angels seeing him. Would you rather own him or Roark ros? Roark has been pitching much better and after his HOU matchup, Roark looks to be facing vs NYM, @MIL, @MIA, vs ATL, vs LAD, @NYM, vs PIT. Roark also is in the NO. I am looking for W and QS. Thanks

    • Scott says:

      Meant to say Roark is in the NL

    • Nick Pollack says:

      The question is if McHugh gets that Sunday start against the A’s following a DH or if he’s pushed back to Tuesday. Since they are off the previous Thursday, I’m guessing he starts that Sunday and gets CWS + TEX.

      Either way though, it doesn’t change my outlook at all and I’d much prefer owning McHugh over Roark.

  4. King Friday says:

    How we feeling about Giolito?

  5. The deisel says:

    I don’t get the singled out thing. Giving up hits is a problem. Pitchers don’t really control xbh any more than hits. I watched a lot of the salazar start and he was lucky it wasn’t worse. He got a dp or two… Which is the result of having guys on first base

  6. The deisel says:

    Re: gio -I cant imagine anyone really overdrafting him. I can see him being on A kot of never draft lists… His peak will be outside of the top 100 overall which is flyer territory in my book.

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