Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Jack Leiter (TEX) vs BOS (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches.
I’ve been tempted this pre-season to lean heavily into Jack Leiter only to rationally take a step back and acknowledge how the Shag Rug is very present. Leiter has showcased questionable command inside outings and while he added a sinker and leaned into his changeup across spring training, we have yet to see him find a comfortable rhythm that allows his elite arsenal to flourish.
Needless to say, I leaned forward in my seat as I watched Jack Zippo make his first start of the season against the Red Sox and we should be happy with what we saw: 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches. His spring fastball velocity was still up as it flirted with 98 mph (first start adrenaline, keep in mind) and even at an inch less vert at 16-17″, 98 mph at 7.1 feet of extension and 1.5 HAVAA is divine. We saw the pitch thrive constantly at 6/29 whiffs (21% SwStr rate), though a 62% strike rate needs to improve as it should serve as the foundation for everything else.
“Everything else” is still in question. The changeup went 0/13 whiffs and failed to land down-and-away, the slider was okay but should do more than 2/10 whiffs, albeit with 27% usage against RHB with LHB-heavy lineup, and the sinker wasn’t located as well as I’d hoped.
Here’s the situation. Zippo is going to improve as the season goes on as he figures out how to utilize his weapons. Tweaks will be made with a great crew of mentors around him (please don’t big league him, deGrom) and seeing a night of decent production during this development period is encouraging. I’d pick up Leiter knowing there will be struggles that will hurt, but with more confidence knowing he’s not destined to put a dent in your performance while he goes through the growing pains of April and May and eventually looks Leiter on his feet.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Kyle Freeland (COL) @ TBR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 42% CSW, 67 pitches.
Soooo don’t go wild here. Freeland has had a great early start in many seasons (especially on the road) and you can cough this one up to the Rays offense not being all that scary. They were super aggressive and rewarded Freeland’s absurdly high strike rates (84% sinker strikes?! 87% sweeper strikes?!), while the curve was disgusting at times for 4/11 whiffs. This King Cole is unlikely to hit a second time and what you should really be thinking is wondering how the Rockies could remove Freeland after just 67 pitches when he was cruisin’ like a USA racing game. He deserved the Win and not the pickup for the Phillies next.
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) @ SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 83 pitches.
Just start guys in Seattle. And also understand that Springs is generally the same guy he’s been for a bit – great changeups down-and-away to RHB and sneaking four-seamers upstairs. He still struggles with the breakers to LHB (and why don’t more teams bat LHB-heavy against him to nullify the changeup?) and that may burn him in the future. Sunshine and rainbows here and I think we’ll see that more times than not moving forward.
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) vs COL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 85 pitches.
This was the Pepiot we were dying to see. The changeup was disgusting, heaters still had 19″ of vert despite not pitching the Trop, and his slider came in for a fantastic 79% strike rate. In fact, a ton of his “hits” were incredibly unlucky and he did not deserve the sole run he allowed. Yes, this offense is far from the best he’ll face, but I’m stoked.
Mitch Keller (PIT) @ MIA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 86 pitches.
Alright Keller, you made it work. Props fella. I don’t like the four-seamer at 93 mph, but you’ve added 2-3″ of vert and that’s cool. Still just 2/34 whiffs on it and not missing bats while relying on contact mitigation that doesn’t seem favorable given his hittability of the past and lower velocity, but maybe that velocity returns and I can actually get behind this? Maybe? Blame it on the Marlins.
Tylor Megill (NYM) @ HOU (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches.
HIS NAME IS TYLORD MEGILL. This was the best commanded outing I’ve seen from Tylor is a long time, which may be a product of the Astros sending nearly exclusive RHB against him, or a possible tweak that actually has the super tall fella get his four-seamer up-and-away, sinkers down-and-in, and sliders down-and away. When you have 7.2 feet of extension and 96/97 mph velocity, that’s how you excel. I don’t care about the slider or sinker movement, just locate and you’ll cruise. He could have gone longer in my view, too, and oh man I wish I can believe he’s actually fixed things. I’d say pick up Megill for the Jays start and take it from there. If you have other flyers who haven’t pitched yet, don’t make the swap and get stuck in a yo-yo situation of never actually getting a start from a pitcher. If you have the spot, then go for it. Please be real…please be real…
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs CHC (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 85 pitches.
Four walks is super weird, which makes the HAISTBMBWT?! make a little more sense, and the fact that he still had 1 ER with a Win is why Kelly is likely the Spider-Man of the year. Don’t go 46% strikes on the changeup again, alright?
Reynaldo López (ATL) @ SDP (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 94 pitches.
The velocity scare? Gone. He matched last year’s mark on the four-seamer at 95/96 mph and ramping it up to 98 mph when needing it. Thing is, that heater went 1/49 whiffs at 52% usage, showcasing the same problem from last year: inconsistent breakers. 23% slider strikes across 30 thrown is absurd and is part of why Padres batters were able to connect on so many heaters. It’s wild ReyLó is able to hold off on walks without a reliable secondary, which is likely going to lead to a whole lot of poor contact at teams figure out his tendency to throw heaters in three-ball counts. Just sit heater and you’re all set.
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs NYM (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
Hot dang, Brown, you absolutely killed it with some pitches and completely flopped on others. The changeup deserved more than a 55% strike rate with its precision down-and-away from batters, though 3/22 whiffs kinda tells us that it isn’t as deceptive as you’d hope. The cutter floated up a ton and was demolished, and the sinker, despite landing up-and-in frequently, still features deadzone movement that leads to hard hit balls when attacked (though 47% CSW on is pretty cool with some excellent whiffs). His curve is still the big boy of drop, but I think it leads to inconsistent control with its 47% strike rate, and the four-seamer at the top of everything is…what. 98 mph?! Two ticks up from 96 mph last year?! But it’s his adrenaline fueled first start and just 2/24 whiffs. Okay, true. Still…That’s pretty dang cool. It all feels like this should work, right? I hate how hittable he is, though, and the four-seamer’s lack of whiffs desite the velocity and a massive shrug of secondaries is a bit unnerving. He’s likely a Holly for the year without that flirtation with AGA and that’s okay with me.
Jack Flaherty (DET) @ LAD (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 83 pitches.
He got away with a fair number of heaters over the plate and the slider struggled against a monster offense, though the curve was absurd against LHB and he nearly made his way through six strong. If the curve is there and the four-seamer can avoid damage, all is well, but I’d feel a little better if the slider wasn’t returning 41% strikes across 27% usage, you know?
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs DET (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 42% CSW, 91 pitches.
A share of the Gallows Pole is a great thing and I’m happy he was able to take advantage of the Tigers for the most part. What I enjoyed the most was watching Yamamoto hear me shouting during our daily Playback livestream (we watch every game as a community, y’all. It’s free. Join us!), wishing for his cutter to return. Suddenly, he saw seven of them at 71% strikes and he settled in. I sincerely hope it returns and gets used four times as much, letting him not have to use the splitter inside the zone at all, while dancing around the edges with the four-seamer. Then he becomes the true ace he’s meant to be.
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs OAK (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 83 pitches.
Yes, Castillo’s velocity is down a tick, but the command was stellar with legit changeups down-and-away to LHB and four-seamer living upstairs incessantly. Should he be throwing his four-seamer there? That’s a great question. He has poor vert and 5.3 extension (1st percentile, blegh) and held a .900+ xwOBAcon on balls in play, but that’s the guy he’s been for a bit in Seattle. He’s a Holly and will continue to thrive at home. On the road…good luck.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 97 pitches.
I’m happy he’s sitting 95+ mph on the heater with a touch more vert, but let’s be real. We know Gausman isn’t Gausman unless he has his splitty working and the pitch returned 2/34 whiffs. Noooope. A sub 10% SwStr rate has reeling and whatever you heard about a new slider making an impact is clearly not the case. It’s the same questionable Gausman from the first half of last year and I hate this.
Connor Gillispie (MIA) vs PIT (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 85 pitches.
You know, for a guy everyone is sending me WHO?!.GIF for, Connor did a standup job to keep the Marlins in the game. That four-seamer has 19″ of vert and a 1.4 HAVAA…and just under 92 mph with terrible extension and a 52% strike rate. There’s a chance he can go Dancing With The Disco and actually make this work in the future, saving that heater for two-strikes instead of 37% usage and leading to a ton of walks. That could be a factor of this being his first career start after tossing just eight frames across three games of relief for the Guardians as a rookie. Maybe see if he settles down and gets a great matchup in the future for your NL-Only leagues.
Dylan Cease (SDP) vs ATL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 93 pitches.
Cease looked so good early. Why didn’t I have this guy in my top 10? And then he was already above sixty pitches before getting out of the third and you can see the inconsistencies of his approach. That said, it was a heavy LHB lineup (his biggest weakness) and we saw some changeups that worked, others that were major wastes, and I can see that getting refined and suddenly smoothing out his evenings. I’ll bang the table that he should have thrown it against Profar instead the high heater, and I get why (my guess is that Profar’s wrist = worse against his heater and was just an 86 mph EV single), but I think that’ll turn into the changeup later.
Tanner Houck (BOS) @ TEX (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 89 pitches.
Soooo here’s something you’re not going to like. Houck’s signature sweeper? The one that had 16 inches of horizontal bend last year? It was down five inches in this one, without any additional vertical drop. Is that bad? It got crushed in this game, so yeah, it’s pretty bad. The splitter failed to earn a single whiff against LHB as well, and that final start of the spring looks rather prescient. This isn’t the Houck of last year and I would replace him in a 12-teamer. Sure, he could rebound next start, but is his ceiling that high to wager?
Charlie Morton (BAL) @ TOR (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 80 pitches.
If you drafted Morton in your 12-teamers, this is what you’re going to get. He actually used his four-seamer well, keeping it upstairs and nibbling to prevent damage, but the curve and sinker made mistakes that were bashed (even if many curves were actually pretty great) and that’s your ball game. He needs to be on for this to work. Just wait for the inevitable Vargas Rule later this year and then grab him.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) @ ARI (L) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 80 pitches.
Ouch. He threw strikes, but the sweeper and curve were not what he wanted them to be in the slightest. He’s a streamer in 12-teamers and against the Athletics, I’d sit it out until we see him locked in with the sweeper and finding the edges with heaters.
Game of the Day
Walker Buehler vs. Tyler Mahle – It won’t be the game of the day in a month, but we’re still in the dark about both of these pitches and have a solid camera angle in Texas. But yes, Nestor Cortes heads to the Bronx vs. Max Fried, too, and we see if Gavin Williams is actually throwing a cutter this season or not.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
