Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) @ DET (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches.
I’ve considered Tanner Bibee one of my biggest bust picks from the pre-season. I was high on the Guardians’ ace to have high volume with a steady floor of ratios and strikeouts after showcasing both a strong breaking ball and changeup for whiffs across his career.
After shouting at the clouds for weeks in hopes for the cutter to return the whiffs from 2025, Bibee finally put together a start worthy of his draft pick: 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches. And it wasn’t because of the cutter.
This was a game filled with sweepers and changeups getting the job done. The former breaker returned a whopping 74% strike rate and 42% CSW with 34% usage to RHB, while the latter woke up to returned 5/12 whiffs to LHB. I’m more enthused by the sweeper’s consistent locations than changeup’s, but seeing two pitches earn whiffs again was a lovely sight.
I don’t think we’re out of the woods, though. The four-seamer wasn’t spotted particularly well and had a bit of Koufax to thank. The cutter was bad at a 42% strike rate and one game is an exception, not confirmation Bibee can return production moving forward. He’ll get the Dodgers next, which allows us to wait at least one more game before feeling confident, and here’s to hoping he shows us the same whiffability there.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Ranger Suárez (PHI) @ COL (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 99 pitches.
He’s in his classic groove and you start Suárez while he’s in it. The overall pitch separation of changeups, fastballs, and cutters is exactly what we saw last season in the first half. Here’s to those who got on board after his horrible Still ILL outing. We saw the signs.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 105 pitches.
It was a joy to watch this game with Randy Wilkins on our Playback livestream. Rodón’s slider and four-seamer led the way and it may surprise you that the changeup was overall ineffective, despite a few good moments here and there. Without a single LHB in the lineup, I’m not too surprised we didn’t see the one-seam sinker, and I’m curious if it comes alive in the future. Enjoy the Gallows Pole, you earned it.
Germán Márquez (COL) vs PHI (L) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 79 pitches.
OH SNAP. That’s a Gold Star with a King Cole for Márquez’s Birthday Party. YOU GET ALL THE TERMS FOR THIS ONE. That curveball was everything at 13/34 whiffs (yes, 0/45 whiffs on everything else) and the slider is clearly taking a backseat. No, it’s not the start of a classic run. Just let him have this.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) @ NYY (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 105 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Eovaldi was able to wriggle out of some early jams, with a solo homer returning the only damage of the day. His splitter was phenomenal and the whole mix was cooking, save for a small lapse with his cutter. This was the Yankees and he killed it. He’s so underrated.
Luis Severino (ATH) vs LAA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 99 pitches.
It’s good to see Sevy still has something to offer and guess what? It’s because of THE CUTTER. He absolutely killed it with the 92/93 mph pitch away to RHB with 46% CSW and sitting up the sinker inside + sweepers and bridge sliders (?) lower to RHB. Yes, he was a bit lucky to face a ton of RHB, though I’m hoping to see a ton of inside cutters when he has to endure a LHB-heavy crew. This can work and with the Astros up next (more RHB!) I think you’re in the clear starting him in 15-teamers. Meh for 12-teamers.
Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) vs SEA (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.
I’ve mentioned that we’re going to get a strikeout explosion from McCullers at some point, and he was so close to getting to the double-digit mark that I see as an inevitability. His pitches move too dang much not to have one of those sparkling outings at some point and look at this one! Over 60% strikes on both breaking balls, but the changeup messed him up + the sinker was hit. It’s in there for those who need to chase strikeouts and the schedule ahead makes me convinced he’ll get it soon: ATH, @PIT, @CLE. One of those has to be 10 Ks, right?
Aaron Civale (MIL) @ PIT (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 73 pitches.
The Brewers made it tough to discern if Civale was getting pushed back or actually making this start and I’m happy he’s back in action. It’s the same ole Civale with questionable command and a sinker + cutter focus, though the breakers weren’t touched a whole lot (where’s the sweeper?!) and struggled to land in the bottom half of the zone. I’m not going after Civale, and definitely not against the Sawx.
Bowden Francis (TOR) vs SDP (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 77 pitches.
That 92 mph fastball to Sheets down the pipe was…not great. This was an outing with a little more splitter support in play, but once again, a lack of #2 pitch to go 60%+ strikes. He’s not in a good place and should be considered a HIPSTER for 15-teamers.
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs CLE (L) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 108 pitches.
Wow. Just 4/56 whiffs on sliders and curveballs is not the Flaherty way. It had to do a little with facing so many LHB, but their low strike rates don’t make me incredibly encouraged. It was a bit dreary and could explain some of his non-competitive pitches + the tick drop on his four-seamer to 92 mph, so let’s shrug and clearly start against the Giants.
Stephen Kolek (SDP) @ TOR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.
A VVPQS with six strikeouts is kinda good for a guy like Kolek. He’s squeezing as much as he can from his arsenal to make it work and giving him a chance to get through six. It’s clearly not enough for fantasy, but I love the meticulous approach to LHB to give the Padres much needed innings. Fun note: Kolek earned exactly one strikeout on each of his six pitches.
Mike Burrows (PIT) vs MIL (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 77 pitches.
Burrows made his second appearance in the majors, first career start, and season debut against the Brewers and I have to mention, I dug his command and approach to LHB. Well, save for the Yelich HR on a fastball that leaked out over the plate for three runs. I wish I saw more whiffability in his breakers (0/23 whiffs), but the changeup was nasty. 8/24 whiffs with a trio of those coming against RHB. Y’all know I love to see that. His four-seamer has good vert but at 94 mph and average extension + steep attack angle, I’m not interested until there’s another pitch that wows us. Big movement on the curve, just chaotic and hard to locate while carrying a low expected swing rate – sub 80 mph curves with huge vertical break get spat on a ton. The slider is a gyro variety and has promise, but 83 mph is a little too slow to overwhelm. It’s not quite enough to chase and with Arizona next, we wait.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) @ ATH (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 6 BBs, 0 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 12% CSW, 99 pitches.
Six walks. Yankees, Fenway, and Mariners not @TEA next. Welp. This was a really bad day and humans are allowed to have those, even major league baseball players.
Trevor Williams (WSN) vs ATL (ND) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 82 pitches.
#NeverTrevor. Here’s why if you’re still confused.
George Kirby (SEA) @ HOU (L) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 72 pitches.
He’s back! It was a Still ILL but I’m like many of you and wanted to go for it anyway. I just missed the guy. Absolutely bonkers to see him throw 53% sinkers and 6% four-seamers, even if he faced mostly RHB. You’re supposed to mix-and-match, Kirby. Sinkers inside, four-seamers up, dangit! I’m not sure why his slider was classified as a cutter, but I dug its movement here and i just wish he can get it to eventually live down-and-away consistently. Please, just nail it and you’ll be so good. After all, this was a 55% chase rate pitch in this one. Yes, you’re fine against the Nationals up next, who I’m not allowed to call Natty Light anymore, apparently. I dunno, PL Bot still calls them a bottom-tier offense and I agree. They can sometimes beat up guys who struggle against LHB, but you’re otherwise safe.
AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) @ WSN (ND) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 82 pitches.
Dangit AJSS, this was literally the last start I was okay putting you in lineups. At least you’re not tempted to take a shot against the Sneks and Phils, right? Wow, what a silver lining. For those who think this was just a flukey game where he had to face nearly all LHB, remember that the four-seamer command is a work in progress and the splitter went just 1/131 whiffs. But the curve went 11/12 strikes! And that’s cool but not reliable. I suggest you move on and stream in his spot instead.
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Game of the Day
Matthew Boyd vs. Hunter Greene – Greene returns + Boyd gets the Reds. Gotta love it.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads, @kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)
