Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Friday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) @ CHC (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 96 pitches.
Uhhhh, so I may have been underrating Ryne Nelson. His 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 96 pitches performance against the Cubs kicked off the second half of the season and it was fueled by the best four-seamer he’s had all year. The pitch returned 11/65 whiffs at 95+ mph with a 34% CSW, backed by 17″ of iVB that allowed him to hurl heater after heater into the zone.
The Cubs couldn’t do much with it, even if they only saw 32% secondaries, a collection of middling offerings that did enough with a near 65% strike rate…and 1/31 whiffs. This isn’t an overwhelming mix and given the four-seamer’s lack of domination recently, I’ve been looking to these pitches to step up and give me confidence that Nelson can produce like this constantly.
For now, if Nelson can earn double-digit whiffs with his heater on the regular, he’ll obviously perform well. Without a backup plan, given my skepticism about his heater’s legitimacy, I’m cautious about endorsing him moving forward. That said, he’ll get the Royals and Nationals across his next two and it’s likely in your best interest to give it a shot. The heater is still a great pitch, just not an elite one that makes it easy to ignore the lack of electricity in the rest of his stuff.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Michael Wacha (KCR) vs CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 95 pitches.
Ayyyy, that’s the good stuff. Wait, his stuff was good? Well, the changeup was and he threw enough strikes with his other offerings + it’s the CrySox. Ah, so it was normal Wacha? Yeah, pretty much. Sidenote: We also saw Alec Marsh pitch a few dozen pitches, but since he’d be at the backend of the rotation, it makes sense to put his routine bullpen in the game.
Hunter Brown (HOU) @ SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 102 pitches.
Alright y’all. If you want to believe in Brown, go ahead. Me? I see a horrible offense that was served so many hittable pitches and didn’t take advantage of them. Seriously, look at Hunter’s strike zone plot and try to tell me this is a good approach. Hey, that’s a lot of strikes, that’s good! Sure, that’s one way of looking at it – Brown threw strikes against a team that struggles against strikes. And yet, y’all can understand why I don’t think this is sustainable, right? Cool.
Nick Pivetta (BOS) @ LAD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 90 pitches.
ATTA BOY, PIVETTA. High sweepers, cutters, and four-seamers did work here against the Dodgers and I’m not exactly sold that he’s ready to cruise through the second half, but after a start like this against the Dodgers, how can you turn down whatever comes next? It’s Coors. I DON’T CARE, SEND HIM.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs SDP (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 102 pitches.
Hmmmmm. Six whiffs and a 22% CSW don’t inspire confidence, but at least that curve finds the zone a ton. That changeup and slider sure seem unwieldy, though. The jury is still out for me here.
Kyle Harrison (SFG) @ COL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 93 pitches.
Well well well, look who it is. Harrison went into Coors and did a good job elevating his heater while keeping the curve mostly down for a good BSB approach. I’m actually more impressed that he kept it centralized instead of having all his pitches tail armside. Still, the curve isn’t dastardly and those four walks outline the lack of reliability in Harrison’s left arm. I’d be cautious trusting Harrison, y’all. It takes some luck to allow just one hit across 24 connected fastballs in Coors (31 swings, 7 whiffs, 15 fouls, 9 balls in play).
Patrick Corbin (WSN) vs CIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 104 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! I’m giving Corbin the Gold Star for this one where he…no way. NO WAY. What. He threw over 50% cutters. WHAT. RIGHT?! He tossed that bad boy like it was his slider and it earned him 11/53 whiffs while the slider cruised for 11/14 strikes + the sinker earned outs in play. Is this it? IS THIS ACTUALLY IT?! Probably not. Yeah. Yeah…
Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs TBR (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 103 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. It’s still strange to see Cole move so far away from the slider – just six of the signature breakers were thrown here. The cutter has suddenly stepped in as Cole’s favorite secondary pitch and I can’t complain in the slightest. A 41% CSW pitch featured nearly 30% of the time is everything Cole wants to supplement his overpowering heater, after all. It’s just a bit strange that curves are now being thrown nearly 3x more than the slider (11/17 strikes). Maybe the slider returns when he feels like he needs a little more whiffability back in the arsenal.
Corbin Burnes (BAL) @ TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 101 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. His cutter is buggin’ out and we should be super thankful his curve and changeup showed up to make things alright for all of us. We saw a drop of 120 RPM and a strike rate of just 55% on the pitch. That is not the hero we see in the papers. The pitch was already taking a step back this year and this was the sharpest decline in a game I’ve seen…so far. Let’s shwoop out of this trough and back toward the zenith, shall we?
Matt Waldron (SDP) @ CLE (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches.
Yep, this is what I get for removing Waldron from The List on Thursday. Look, your knuckler had been volatile and your fastballs/sweeper/cutter mix had been all kinds of blegh. I needed a start like this one – better knuckleball + effective sweepers and cutters in a tough matchup – to get back on track. It wasn’t worth the risk prior.
Gavin Stone (LAD) vs BOS (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 80 pitches.
It’s not exhilarating, but we’ll take it. Could have easily been a Win had it not been for Pivetta’s performance, and his changeup was well spotted, unlike in a few recent starts we’ve seen. I’d be careful with the Astros up next, but mostly we should be fine with Stone as a Toby moving forward.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs NYM (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 81 pitches.
Sooooo. A HAISTBMBWT?! with five walks is the old Cabrera and I was really hoping this was the latest generation model. The command was far worse than it was against the Reds and with the Orioles up next, it’s not worth it to hold him now. Sigh. I really thought he was on the upswing. I really did.
Jack Flaherty (DET) @ TOR (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I’m kinda done dancing around it. The slider and curve are legit and paved the way for another Gallows Pole, while the fastball avoided punishment and found its spots well. He’s been in this groove for months now and we all expect dominance each time out.
JP Sears (OAK) vs LAA (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 81 pitches.
The sweeper got pummeled but he found a way to get through it and give you a Win and decent ERA. Thanks, Sears, I have so much anxiety watching you pitch as you really can’t consistently locate north-south.
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs HOU (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 90 pitches.
Aces gonna ace…ish. That’s a Dusty Donut with a cool WHIP but not much help otherwise as the slider is still coming in slower and is not having nearly the same success – 1/23 whiffs is not the result we want from the breaker. Meanwhile, the four-seamer was barely used at the top of the zone and returned one whiff as well. What is going on with you, Castillo? Just throw the heater upstairs and the harder slider, and call me after the weekend.
Cal Quantrill (COL) vs SFG (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 100 pitches.
A PQS that should have been worse if not for a poorly-placed umpire, who collided with an RBI double down the line, turning it into an infield out instead. I know, it’s weird and That’s Baseball, Suzyn. The splitter wasn’t Splitty McDopeface and I’m not interested when he hosts the Sawx next week.
Aaron Nola (PHI) @ PIT (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 80 pitches.
Blegh. Nola went ultra curveball at nearly 50% usage as everything else was getting bashed over the plate. This wasn’t him, y’all. This was just weird. We move on.
Zach Eflin (TBR) @ NYY (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 88 pitches.
A ghastly line with eleven baserunners in five innings with four walks and…a King Cole. Weird. That cutter did most of the work nailing the edges with some Canibal McSanchez sprinkled in. He is what he is at this point – a glorified Toby.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) vs DET (L) – 6.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 95 pitches.
Blegh. Two homeruns messed him up, while the rest was perfectly normal. Stupid Careful, Icarus in the seventh for his final two runs. He had that PQS y’all. IT WAS THERE.
Sean Manaea (NYM) @ MIA (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 84 pitches.
Uhhhhh, does anyone know where the return label is? This Manaea seems to be faulty. Not much to say here, this was bad and a HAISTBMBWT?! against the Marlins just isn’t right. No need to do rush delivery here – the Yankees are next and I’d skip on Manaea until the Twins after.
Justin Steele (CHC) vs ARI (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
Blegh. He didn’t have his best stuff and the command wasn’t as precise as we’ve seen across the last month. Whatareyagonnado. As is tradition, it’s right after we gave Steele the AGA tag. Fun.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs BAL (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 76 pitches.
Well, that’s not fun. The heater was under 95 mph + his splitter went just 19% CSW with a pair of whiffs. That’ll do it. He really didn’t pitch that poorly, but it’s the Orioles and it was one of those nights. We move on.
Martín Pérez (PIT) vs PHI (ND) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 82 pitches.
It was the Phillies and he doesn’t have his premium command yet. Maybe we jump in later.
Griffin Canning (LAA) @ OAK (L) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 62 pitches.
Nooooooo. I streamed Canning and the man located some terrible heaters and curves and changeups down the pipe. Sigh. I’m still giving it a shot against the Mariners. Canning should be better and it’s the Mariners.
Frankie Montas (CIN) @ WSN (L) – 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 84 pitches.
Ah. Hmmm. Yes. Well, your problem here is–I know what the problem is. Well okay then. Still a shot at a QS given his leash, but there’s yer floor.
Chris Flexen (CHW) @ KCR (L) – 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 97 pitches.
WELL OKAY THEN. I wanted the man to be Flexen at the beach, but now he’s slumped over a bench explaining to the pigeon how he used to be able to show off his biceps, but now when he tries, they flop over his forearm like a Dali clock. His command was horrific and I hope he gets it back to become a sneaky stream here and there in the second half.
Game of the Day
Framber Valdez vs. George Kirby – Valdez should have a great outing against the Mariners, while Kirby’s new approach make him primed for a dominant second half.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)