Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Tobias Myers (MIL) vs LAD (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 93 pitches.
For a rookie with a 2.32 ERA and 1.05 WHIP across his last fourteen starts, I sure don’t express a massive amount of love for Tobias Myers, but maybe I should after he succeeded in his biggest test yet on Thursday night, returning a 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 93 pitches line against the Dodgers.
I’ve considered him a Vargas Rule rooted in his command-first approach with a four-pitch mix that he keeps involved throughout the game. His heater is an interesting one, coming in at 93 mph and returning few whiffs and average ICR%, but its elite iVB (over 18 inches!) has allowed him to earn 73% strikes with it and befuddle batters just enough to earn a .294 BACON on the pitch thus far (74th percentile). I get a little scared with how often he features it comfortably over the plate, but it’s one of those fastballs that finds a way. Now imagine if he increased its 48% hiLoc (36th percentile) and leaned into that vert…
That heater alone isn’t doing it, of course. Pairing that fastball with a high strike cutter early in counts and across the zone helps Myers keep batters at bay as they try to zero in on the fastball. The slider looks like the cutter and helps him induce a ton of weak contact (sub 30% ICR), though it isn’t the greatest whiff pitch around at a 15% SwStr rate.
Tobias’ biggest knock is his strikeout rate, which makes those glistening ratios appear distorted as they mask the true nature of his skills. The solution is his changeup, a pitch that can earn whiffs but currently holds a horrific 49% strike rate as he fails to get on top of it constantly. Seriously, it’s a 31% hiLoc on a changeup, good for 97th percentile. Whoops. However, when he executes it, I love this pitch. It’s such a deflated pitch that has batters emitting hefty OOOOOOFs when attempting to swat it, reminding us of classic Marco Estrada changes of old. I’m not suggesting he’ll get there this year, but that changeup should unlock strikeouts in the future.
All in all, Myers’ fastball, cutter, and slider are well located and carry enough deception to justify a 12-teamer hold for ratios, though the floor is very much there without overpowering stuff. This Vargas Rule is sure to end at some point, unless the changeup awakens, of course. Ride it out, y’all.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Logan Webb (SFG) vs ATL (W) – 7.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 104 pitches.
Ohhhhh buddy. We’re seeing prime Webb these days and he should have gone a full eight if his dotted 3-2 sinker was properly called a strike. Yes, that was his only walk of the game and effectively knocked him out. IT WAS DUMB. What isn’t dumb is a King Cole with seven punchouts as Webb has found his sweeper and merged it well with his already great sinker and change. These are the golden times and he’ll be rising on The List into Tier 4 at the very least. But he’s been fantastic across four starts! The previous three teams were Oakland, Washington, and Detroit. FINE.
Bryce Miller (SEA) @ DET (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.
OH SNAP. Miller was feeling his splitter and it was flat-out disgusting. Not only did it go 70% strikes (WHOA), it also returned 7/23 whiffs, allowing his heater to thrive and do its thing…even if he didn’t have his best four-seamer command of the year. I so badly want to believe that splitter is here to stay. Obviously. I already know what you’re gonna say. IT’S THE MOST VOLATILE PITCH IN BASEBALL. I truly want to hear about how Bryce figured out the right grip and is now locked in, but I need to mention how the slider and curve went 8/18 strikes on the side, showcasing how there isn’t another option. So let’s hope this is the real deal. We’ve waited so long.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs WSN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 96 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I understand if people want Skubal or Sale at SP #1, but Wheeler is just so dang dependable…save for the rare 6/7/8 ER blowup that happens once every six weeks.
Zach Eflin (BAL) vs BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 87 pitches.
Awwww yis. The Orioles are thriving with Eflin, who was brilliant with his fastballs and cutters upstairs and armside. He’s squeezing everything out of his arsenal right now just like 2023 and it’s awesome to watch.
Alex Faedo (DET) vs SEA (ND) – 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 33 pitches.
I’ve been pretty sour on Kenta Maeda, but I have to acknowledge that he’s returned a 3.28 ERA and 0.89 WHIP across 24.2 IP since turning into a “reliever”, which is really two games of relief followed by four as the bulk guy with an opener (see: Faedo). He’s increased his slider usage massively in that time from 26% usage prior all the way 37% usage and its 20% ICR with a near 70% strike rate is absolutely what you want. Hmmmmm. Maybe not the worst streamer against the Cubs in max-start leagues…?
Cody Bradford (TEX) vs MIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 104 pitches.
Ayyy way to be, Bradford! You know, it’s kinda funny to see Bradford vs. Ober when both are low-90s, elite extension four-seamer + great changeup guys…who put up super similar lines. HA. Anyway, Bradford spotted heaters incredibly well with changeups barely touching the zone and if he could learn a better breaker, there would be something legit here. Like Ober! Weird how that works.
Bailey Ober (MIN) @ TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna deliver a classic Bailey Special…which is like classic Opeth. It isn’t terrible, but the evolved version past their first few albums is so much better. Ober’s fastball and changeup command were the culprits here and it was just one of those days.
Max Fried (ATL) @ SFG (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 103 pitches.
Fried battled in this one and dealt with some silly runs in that second frame before getting bounced in the sixth. I feel like this was the start of shaking off the rust he always has in his first few starts (I thought he would have by now, I KNOW) and those afraid of the Phillies should rest their fears. Go for it.
Jack Flaherty (LAD) @ MIL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.
Aces gonna earn a Gallows Pole that feels like a participation trophy after failing to provide ace-like domination akin to Flaherty’s season thus far. Two HRs in the first did all the damage here, the first on a well-located fastball (but just 92 mph…sidenote, that velocity climbed all start so don’t worry), the second on a hanging front-door slider that Flaherty wants back. So it goes, we carry on.
Nick Pivetta (BOS) @ BAL (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 90 pitches.
The cutter is still missing and I really don’t know why. The velocity is still slightly down at 93/94 instead of 94/95 and he didn’t have a great feel for the heater. I’m still a bit worried, especially with the Astros up next.
Jose Quintana (NYM) vs OAK (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 14% CSW, 92 pitches.
Wait. No. This isn’t how this was supposed to go. I’m pretty shocked by this one as Quintana pitched pretty dang well, but the Athletics jumped all over his curveball (one labeled as a Slurve by Savant, which was, ummmm, the GRAND SLAM. Ugh. In other words, it was a curve that was absolutely hung and demolished. So close to escaping this one and now it’s the Orioles + Padres. You can move on now.
Mitch Spence (OAK) @ NYM (ND) – 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 89 pitches.
The ceiling was limited already (it’s what, five frames of decent ratios and a sneaky Win as the hope?) and the Mets were patient. Consider him against the Rays next if you’d like.
Mitchell Parker (WSN) @ PHI (L) – 3.0 IP, 9 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 72 pitches.
Yikes. He didn’t have much outside of the heater and that’s not the best pitch, especially against the Phils. Pick your spots with Parker, including Rockie Road next time out. That should be fine, even after this. You know, it’s ultra rare for SPs to have two disaster starts in a row.
Game of the Day
Garrett Crochet vs. Spencer Arrighetti – Does The Pasta Pirate still have it in him? Are the White Sox going to let Crochet go over 80 pitches?
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Not an accurate assessment of Pivetta’s performance. He threw a 2-strike curveball that was perfectly in the zone and was called a ball, *then* gave up that home run. The same ump also made a horrendous 3rd strike call on Devers, so this was some home cookin’. Pivetta did dial up to 96 at a couple points, and I think a good performance was ruined by that one bad call.