Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup – Connor Roll

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.  

Connor Phillips (CIN) vs MIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches.

I really want to be more excited about Connor Phillips and his 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches Win against the Twins, but I just can’t. Come on Nick! He sat 96/97 mph! His sweeper had a 54% CSW! He even sprinkled in some solid curveballs! I know I know, and hey, maybe it does work! But I just don’t love it.

Why? Because it’s a Huascar Rule. That is, his sweeper was solid at getting strikes here (will it continue to?) and let’s say that’s his elite offering. Does he have another one? I don’t think so. But the fastball! It doesn’t have solid vertical break and without it, the pitch held an 8% SwStr rate (5/61 whiffs) and heavily relied on finding gloves in play to get through the night.

In short, Phillips has a fastball that doesn’t miss bats and a sweeper that I don’t quite trust to be the consistent 75% strike pitch that it was tonight. That makes for a Cherry Bomb at best who may deserve your attention against the Pirates but should still not be trusted in 12-teamers where ratios are close. You’re the Captain now of your ship, not Mr. Phillips. Be smart about this.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:

 

Adam Wainwright (STL) vs MIL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.

HE DID IT. Wainwright earned a Gold Star as he secured his 200th career Win and I’m so dang happy for him. What a grind this was across the 2023 season and he made it happen. He can retire a happy Cardinal, now.

Bryan Woo (SEA) @ OAK (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 86 pitches.

This is the Woo we expect – a good four-seamer, a solid sinker, and lacking secondaries. Way to take down the Athletics as you should. Now it gets tough with the Rangers twice and that’s a questionable start for both.

Mike Clevinger (CWS) @ WSH (W) – 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 109 pitches.

Pffffft what. That’s four out of five stellar outings against poor lineups, with his only blip coming the day after no team wanted to pick him up off waivers, forcing him to go back to the White Sox. The changeup + the slider were great, the four-seamer pumped outs endlessly, and the Nationals are horrid. Now it gets tough with the Red Sox in Fenway + Padres. It’s hard to deny him a start after this run, but those are far tougher hitters to deal with. Be careful.

Jordan Montgomery (TEX) vs BOS (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 42% CSW, 95 pitches.

After surviving off 16 sinkers in play finding a ton of outs, The Bear took matters into his own hands with a Golden Goal and a stupid good curveball at 14/37 whiffs. WHAT. Jeeeez, this is why we don’t feed bears. The changeup wasn’t bad, either, but hot dang this was the game of the hook. Just look at this precision. It’s an obvious peak and we love to see it.

José Butto (NYM) @ MIA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 95 pitches.

He’s done it again. I hated the four-seamer here, either pummeling it down the pipe or missing well out of the zone, and his changeup was…also sporadic. The slider was a bit more consistent, though, and the savior of the outing. If you want to believe this is legit, by all Johns means, but you can’t be seriously trusting him against the Phillies twice now, right? Right?!

Zack Wheeler (PHI) @ ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 99 pitches.

ACES GONNA ACE. You gotta love a redemption start like this against the best offense in the majors. That four-seamer, y’all. It’s unreal. What about the sinker? Yes yes yes, 42% O-Swing. Oh thank Koufax.

Freddy Peralta (MIL) @ STL (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 86 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Weird to see just 2/43 whiffs on his fastball, but 11 called strikes tell you that the Cardinals were passive with Peralta. Ohhhh so that’s why CSW is important! Yup, that’s actually the exact realization I had showcasing why we needed to include both. ANYWAY, keep being awesome, Peralta.

Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs NYM (ND) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches.

I’m thrilled to see far more strikes across the board from Cabrera, especially on the curve and changeup. I think we’re okay starting him for his final two.

John Means (BAL) @ HOU (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 86 pitches.

I didn’t expect much here, but just one strikeout?! HAISTBMBWT?! I’m not too jazzed about starting Means against the Guardians next, but I can see it working as a Toby if the changeup is able to find gloves in play. He’s not the Means we loved in early 2022.

Kutter Crawford (BOS) @ TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 84 pitches.

Hot dang, look at you! He tossed strikes galore with everything but the sweeper and I still wish he threw more curves and sliders than the kutter, but he spotted it well and all is cool here. He gets the White Sox next and I’m circling that one.

Cal Quantrill (CLE) @ KC (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 96 pitches.

Yep that’s Quantri–wait. 15% sinkers?! 8% cutters?! YOU’RE A SPLITTER + CURVE GUY NOW?! What on Earth. Why?! No, this doesn’t mean I like him more now moving forward.

Michael Wacha (SD) vs COL (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 91 pitches.

Solid work from Wacha against Rockie Road as the Padres have one of the best schedules remaining. Enjoy the ride.

Justin Verlander (HOU) vs BAL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 89 pitches.

A VPQS ain’t what you were looking for from Verlander here, but he did go BSB well with four-seamers up, curveballs over the plate, and his slider down. He’s still a good pitcher, just not the stud fantasy arm of old.

Lance Lynn (LAD) vs DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 93 pitches.

The fastball was good, the rest was…not. Oh hey, it’s the same thing I’ve written all year! Funny how that works. We still roll with Lynn because of the matchups, but yeah, this is him.

Brady Singer (KC) vs CLE (ND) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 77 pitches.

He’s a Cherry Bomb with a slider that returned 17% CSW. You just can’t do this.

JP Sears (OAK) vs SEA (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 89 pitches.

The man is Eric Lauer 2022 and I refuse to acknowledge him as anything else. Seriously though, he’s not a guy to start until good matchups fall his way, and I’m excited to get the Sears discount then.

Joe Ryan (MIN) @ CIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 84 pitches.

Uggggggh. Ryan’s splitter had a ton of called strikes, but he’s not dominating batters like he did in the first half. I really don’t think he’s at his best as a four-seamer/splitter guy and I hope he develops the sweeper over the off-season to reinvent his approach. For now, we start him against the Angels.

Kyle Wright (ATL) vs PHI (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 78 pitches.

Okay so this isn’t great. At the same time, I’m glad the curveball returned to being the clear #1 offering for Wright and he did a great job placing it down, both in and out of the zone. Meanwhile, I didn’t hate his sinker and four-seamer locations and seeing him at 80 pitches now with a solid approach makes me consider him against the Nationals next. Process over results, y’all. This was the Phillies, after all.

Joan Adon (WSH) vs CWS (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.

J.A. Rule? Nah, no rule. No rule? No rule. Not cool. Apologize to everyone for this. I’m so sorry. It’s late.

Eduardo Rodriguez (DET) @ LAD (L) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 70 pitches.

The Dodgers, yo. The Dodgers. We start him for his easier starts ahead, don’t overthink it.

Ty Blach (COL) @ SD (L) – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.

If you elected to go with Ty, you clearly haven’t been around the Blach.

 

Game of the Day

 

Blake Snell vs. Colorado Rockies – Go win the Cy Young.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Playback.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.

Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)