Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Jakob Junis (CIN) vs ATL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 70 pitches.
We had another surprising game from Jakob Junis on Wednesday, this time silencing Atlanta in Cin City for 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 70 pitches, marking the third straight productive outing from the right-hander, and saving many desperate fantasy managers as we a pin a Gold Star to his jacket.
And I just can’t buy it.
I want to. Truly. The slider is still a lively offering as it’s always been, and the missing piece has been everything else. Junis has gotten through these games with his heaters as the sole complement to the breaker, and Koufax has featured a wide grin, kicking his feet up as he put on the broadcast. Yes, the fastball command has been a touch better than in the past, but these 90/91 mph heaters are nothing out of the ordinary to demand they find gloves consistently enough to return six productive frames in just seventy pitches.
If you want to keep running with Junis during this shocking stretch, you do you. Personally, I’m expecting a rough day in Cleveland up ahead and wouldn’t want to put my fantasy team at risk.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Dylan Cease (SDP) vs HOU (W) – 8.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 103 pitches.
Cease was fantastic with his locations to LHB, while the slider and curve did work against RHB. That’s the Cease way – if he can’t spot heaters against LHB or sliders against RHB, it all falls apart.
Cody Bradford (TEX) vs TOR (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
Phew. See? One bad day against the Sneks isn’t a way to define a fella. That said…this was the second straight start of poor four-seamer locations and I sure hope he corrects that for the Athletics up next.
Jose Quintana (NYM) vs WSN (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.
This wasn’t even peak Quintana. It was “Here’s a sinker, do something with the sinker” Quintana, which normally results in disaster. But not for me. He’ll get Atlanta up next, unless the Mets choose to bump up Manaea and Severino for those matchups (it’s a tight playoff race, after all!), leaving Quintana for the Brewers. I think I’m avoiding both possible opponents, honestly. This isn’t peak Quintana and Koufax is a busy man.
Nestor Cortes (NYY) @ SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.
Atta boy Cortes. I’m not seeing quite enough to issue a clear start against the Orioles up next, but that’s considerable for a Win and it’s great to see both his four-seamer working + a 43% CSW cutter. The changeup…not so much at 10/23 strikes, but it did earn outs for him and we may see it come with a touch more polish next time out.
Landon Knack (LAD) @ MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 87 pitches.
The ole five and dive for an easy Win. I really should have favored this one more. Sigh. His four-seamer was stupid good in the zone at 94/95 mph and elite iVB, while the curve and slider earned enough strikes as a supporting cast across a third of his pitches. This works against the Marlins
Jared Shuster (CHW) @ LAA (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 39 pitches.
This was full bullpen with a Prelander Berroa sighting and the dude went two shutout frames with zero walks and four strikeouts. JUST SAYING. He’s a Strider-type if he could throw strikes consistently like he did here for 5+ frames. Sigh…
Justin Steele (CHC) vs OAK (ND) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 57 pitches.
He returned from the IL and was limited as expected while failing to have the command we wanted. Yeaaaah, I’d prefer to move on completely here. The Cubs have no reason to push him when returning from an elbow injury. Shut it down.
Aaron Nola (PHI) @ MIL (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 97 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Thank you Nola for being that rock we all needed you to be.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) vs CHW (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 79 pitches.
The Jack of One Trade was circled for this start and THE ROOOOOOK! came through, failing to earn a Win because he was drafted on the wrong team. And guess what? He gets the White Sox again. Yes, let’s lean on that sinker for another start and hope the Angels can hit some to the clouds.
Framber Valdez (HOU) @ SDP (L) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. His redemption arc has been unreal, all thanks to the curveball.
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) @ CIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
It’s a lovely outing from Mr. Crescendo, who still didn’t have his best slider feel (2/15 whiffs and inconsistent locations), though the four-seamer was spotted well and the curve + splitter also helped often. Let it ride against the Mets.
Ryan Pepiot (TBR) vs BOS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 76 pitches.
Pfffffffft, of course the ONE time that I try to be smart and suggest “Hey, they are limiting Pepiot given he tossed fewer than 40 pitches last time.” Pepiot’s heater was unstoppable at 15/49 whiffs (Yep, a near 30% SwStr rate lol) and the rare change, slider, or cutter weren’t great but they didn’t need to be. A Golden Goal fueled nearly exclusively by four-seamers. Sigh. This kid has so much potential in 2025 and the question remains: Can he be consistent enough with his secondaries?
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 106 pitches.
Bryce sure loves his home park. The splitter got plenty of action near 30% usage, though the slider returned 90% strikes and he tried a whole lot of ways to confound the Yankees and keep them on their toes – including not giving in during three-ball counts. Credit to Bryce for making this work when I was highly skeptical, but it doesn’t mean I’m gung-ho for a start in Houston up next. Remember, he’s far worse on the road. I’d heavily consider other options.
Tarik Skubal (DET) @ KCR (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Pretty clear he gets the Cy Young, as he far and away leads the AL in fWAR. Second place? Cole PEW PEW PEW Ragans.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs PHI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 91 pitches.
Phew. I appreciate Professor Chaos for scheduling his lecture on Entropy at the same time as this start, allowing his four-seamer to nestle at the top of the zone comfortably, while all his slow stuff routinely fell underneath. But you watched this game, too! How will you pass? Psssh, I got two screens, y’all, and my note taking skills are legit.
Tanner Houck (BOS) @ TBR (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 60 pitches.
Uggggh. He actually had his splitter working! This was the Houck you remember and…they were careful with him, limiting him to just sixty pitches. HE HAD IT. I imagine he’ll be under 80 pitches next time out, too, which makes me want to try something else in Toronto in what’s likely his final start of the year (he’s lined up for the final Sunday, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Red Sox elect to hit the brakes and let him get more rest). That could be worthwhile, but I think there are better options for 12-teamers.
Bailey Ober (MIN) @ CLE (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 12 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 101 pitches.
It’s pretty wild how a season filled with elite starts is so hampered by just two games or 17 ER combined. Everything he’s done has been phenomenal, but those two games alone bring his season ERA from 2.99 to its current 3.85. Yuuuup. You’d be drafting him inside the Top 10 SP easily next year if it weren’t for those two games…so why don’t you do it anyway?
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs MIN (ND) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 96 pitches.
I have to wonder if there will ever be a time I can fully get behind Bibee’s performances. I watch and I see chaos unfold as he finds his way to finish line. I’m not taking him out of lineups, but I am squinting hard to figure out how long this can actually last. So you’re not drafting him next year. Nah, probably not and I could easily have egg on my face for it. The barking shoulder thing doesn’t help, either.
Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) @ COL (W) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 94 pitches.
Ha! Oh Coors, what have they done to you this year. I see a line like this from Erod and instantly go to “Ah, he had his changeup,” but nay! Not Today. That was a 5/13 strike pitch (38% rate, yikes), while Rodriguez went 44% CSW on his four-seamer at 11/39 whiffs, while the cutter did the rest inside the zone for a near 70% strike rate. He avoided poor locations, attacked, and flanked the enemy in the mountains. Guess we’re starting him against the Giants next, too.
Bowden Francis (TOR) @ TEX (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 100 pitches.
Despite sitting 1-2 ticks down on the heater at just 91.4 mph, the Rangers just couldn’t figure out how to hit Francis. It’s weird and I’ll never stop saying it’s weird, but props to Francis for a 70% strike curveball and a splitter that went…0/15 CSW. Ahem. Props to Francis for a strong breaker and 14 called four-seamer strikes. We keep riding this for the Sawx in Toronto and bail in the winter.
Hayden Birdsong (SFG) @ BAL (W) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 96 pitches.
Hmmmm. The Orioles are really struggling, huh. So is Birdsong’s control, but unstoppable force, immovable object, unwritten rules, etc. etc. etc. There’s no way I’m starting him against Arizona.
Brady Basso (OAK) @ CHC (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 93 pitches.
I know some took the chance here and it wasn’t so bad. There’s a chance he comes through against the Rangers next week with his array of offerings from the left side and tuck that away as a possible move if you’re QS or Win hunting. But he went just 4.2 IP! 93 pitches, y’all. When it comes to QS targets, the two main qualities to chase: Consistent 90+ pitch counts and 4+ pitches above 15% usage. The curve was his #4 offering at 16% usage and he fits the bill. Just a thought.
Alec Marsh (KCR) vs DET (L) – 2.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 73 pitches.
Bleeeeegh. After multiple starts featuring great feel for his slider and curve, they abandoned him when we needed it most. Come on Mr. Marsh, I THOUGHT THIS WAS AMERICA. If Lorenzen isn’t back next week, Marsh will get one more outing against the Nationals, which we can call a coin-flip now – Will he have the breakers back or not? I hate coin-flips. It’s always tails unless I say it’s tails. Pretty sure that’s how it works.
Dean Kremer (BAL) vs SFG (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 86 pitches.
Ah. So one game after dominating with your four-seamer and its great iVB, the pitch was thrown least of all five pitches (despite 8/10 strikes and 50% CSW), to favor the sinker and splitter. And save for one poor frame, this worked well, but Kremer, why. I don’t think I can trust this against the Yankees next week, though he obviously doesn’t have the capped ceiling as others do.
Sonny Gray (STL) vs PIT (ND) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 90 pitches.
He was one out away from a solid six frames of 2 ER before allowing two singles (yes, he was Singled Out) and pulled. Oh. Yuuuup. Careful, Icarus.
Jake Woodford (PIT) @ STL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 82 pitches.
The Amish Mustang got a chance to produce with 80+ pitches and came up empty, save for more strikeouts than usual. You see, when he has his cutter and sweeper actually spotted, he still doesn’t give you enough. I had already forgotten about him until I read this. Whoops, my bad. You were never here.
Ryan Weathers (MIA) vs LAD (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 74 pitches.
He returned! For 70+ pitches! And had to face the Dodgers so this was terrible! The four-seamer wasn’t absurd as we wanted it to be with his horrible 5.8 feet of extension and mid iVB at 96 mph, though the changeup and sweeper were promising. I won’t rule out a successful game against the Twins, but his low Win chance as he plays our favorite childhood game The Floor Is Lava makes this one a pass in most cases.
Austin Gomber (COL) vs ARI (L) – 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 49 pitches.
COL Story, Bro. There’s no way you did this against the Sneks.
DJ Herz (WSN) @ NYM (L) – 3.1 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 83 pitches.
Womp womp. He was cruising through three, then the demolition happened. The fourth came with nine runs for the Mets and there go your ratios. He’s a volatile one and the Royals are a coin-flip. Good luck, I think he pitched better than the final line and one inning doesn’t define a pitcher, FWIW.
Game of the Day
Kevin Gausman vs. Kumar Rocker – I’d love to see double-digit splitter whiffs from Gausman again + it’s Rocker’s second start in the bigs. This is the good stuff.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Alexander Schimmeck/Unsplash | Featured Image by Ethan Kaplan (@DJFreddie10 on Twitter and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
Finally some sweet from Nola the premier cherry bomb!