I released my massive Top 400 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball 2025 at the end of February (which you should absolutely read if you haven’t already!) and decided to leverage that into some smaller articles relating to guys you could target for specific categories or at certain times in your draft. You can find this article, and other similar ones, in our 2025 Draft Kit.
To get an extra edge, sign up for PL Pro. Gain access to our Live Draft Assistant Tool to win your drafts, using our PLV-powered projections. We are also offering a Lifetime Subscription option for a limited time. With PL Pro, you’ll get an ad-free experience, access to our 1,000+ member Discord (the best place to take baseball on the internet!), our 2025 player projections infused with PLV (Pitch modeling!), our incredible PLV Apps, including Live PLV data in-season and rolling charts for Process+, and so much more.
You can also join me LIVE on playback.tv/pitcherlist throughout the off-season as I craft these articles by watching games together, displaying my research process, and chatting with our community.
Below are some pitchers you can target a little later in drafts if you are in need of strikeouts.
1. Robbie Ray (SFG, LHP)
I’m a bit shocked to say it, but I really like the bed and breakfast for next year. Give me all of that R&R! I was initially hesitant for obvious reasons – his volatility rooted in questionable control of his breakers that lead to his high iVB, but poor HAVAA and extension, heater to get tagged more often than we’d like. However, the slider has routinely been a 20% SwStr pitch against both RHB and LHB and his small sample last year suggests more of the same in the year ahead. His situation in San Francisco is great – a good park to pitch in with an above-average defense and a long leash to push 100 pitches each outing – and another 30% strikeout rate season with volume tells me 200 strikeouts are ahead now that he’s in his TJS honeymoon period (just don’t strain your hammy again, alright?).
I’m also encouraged that his fastball sat 94+ mph consistently in all seven starts last year and was spotted well. When we’ve seen high walk rates from Ray in the past, it often came with a scatterplot of heaters, but this small sample saw great fastball locations and a few blips of slider or curveball command. We didn’t even get the sinker returning from his days with the Mariners and you should bet the pitch returns if he needs to make an adjustment during the season.
I wrestled with where to place Ray on the ranks – is he a Cherry Bomb or a Holly? – and I’ve settled that 1) You are not going to drop Ray 2) He will be a strikeout machine 3) He has a longer leash than the younger Cherry Bomb types. That puts him inside the top Cherry Bomb category as I don’t truly believe he’ll eradicate the ER blowups for the full year. And that’s fine, we all could use another Joe Ryan on our squads.
Quick Take: He’ll be going every five days with a long leash for the Giants and is one of the few arms poised for a 200+ strikeout season. His heater command at 94+ mph is a good sign for better consistency in 2025 in a solid team environment, though there will surely be a sprinkle of difficult stretches along the way.
2. Nick Lodolo (CIN, LHP)
We all want this to work. We’ve seen it work and we can taste the 30% strikeout rate paired with glorious ratios. It seems as though the only one who doesn’t want this to work is Lodolo’s body. He’s dealt with an array of injuries that have prevented him from keeping in a groove for a full season, though through his first eleven starts, Lodolo featured a 2.76 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with a 26% strikeout rate. I know, I was shocked, too.
His four-seamer and sinker feature the most horizontal breaker in the bigs (thanks low arm angle!), creating a tough time for LHB as the sinker neared a 50% inside location rate for the first time in his career, while the four-seamer acted as a front-hip pitch to freeze many RHB. When his curve is cooking, it lands glove-side beautifully for whiffs, and soars when he can pair it with a changeup arm-side.
However, he appears to be a traditional slingin’ lefty who is susceptible to bouts of chaos. It’s difficult at his arm angle to be precise for prolonged stretches and when it’s rough, it’s rough. In addition, his fastballs are not heavy whiff pitches, relying mostly on the breaker to get punchouts while the changeup’s consistently needs a bit of refinement.
I can feel the anxiety of rostering Lodolo now, not knowing if he will allow 5 ER or 1 ER each time he takes the bump. He may go deep enough in drafts that you can take a chance and see what happens early, though don’t hold on too tight. Blink once and suddenly he’s wearing plaid and holding a PBR. No, not a HIPSTER!
Quick Take: The stuff is there to dominate with double digit strikeouts on a given night, but a journey filled with injuries makes it difficult to trust Lodolo to find a proper groove in the season ahead. Even when he does well, you’ll wonder if he can keep it up. That’s not a fun experience for fantasy managers.
3. Grant Holmes (ATL, RHP)
I like The Real Estate Broker a lot. Holmes boasted three pitches with a 15%+ SwStr rate, 65%+ strike rate, and sub 40% ICR against RHB with his four-seamer spotting the edges, opening the doors for filthy sliders and curveballs. It was awesome. Small sample size of just under 70 IP, yes, but still awesome.
There are some warning signs against LHB, though. His four-seamer’s strength is precision against RHB that is simply not there against LHB with so many wasted armside and off the plate, which isn’t the worst thing – it’s his most hittable pitch, after all – but the pitches that land inside the zone are well inside the zone. Not great.
The slider and curve make up the slack, though. Both returned absurd 70%+ Strike rates at a 24% SwStr clip, and even with his slider returning a ghastly 50%+ ICR, contact wasn’t made enough for Holmes to struggle in the small sample.
Now that Atlanta hasn’t acquired significant depth, Holmes should be the #4 starter out of camp and in a position to hold a rotation spot once Strider returns – it’s rare for something not to break after a month into the year. With a longer leash and starting every five days on a winning club, Holmes looks to be a great sleeper target for all-around production at a cheap cost.
Quick Take: The heater’s strong precision against RHB allows the elite slider and curve to take center stage without the punishment we normally see from breaker-focused arms. There may be some struggles against LHB that need a changeup or cutter to ease the blow, but Holmes should return plenty of value in all formats at his late draft price.
4. Nick Pivetta (SDP, RHP)
Pivetta is pretty straightforward. His RHB approach is four-seamers + sweepers, while LHB see four-seamers + curves. Alex Fast asked me at the end of the year “Why do you think Pivetta’s four-seamer gets hit so much harder by RHB than LHB?” and the answer is insightful – Pivetta’s arm angle difference between fastballs and sweepers is much larger than fastballs and curveballs. In other words, it’s easier to read his four-seamer off the sweeper than the curve. And that’s a problem he needs to fix.
There is a fun solution, though – bring back the cutter we saw in 2023. With the same drop, too. Seriously, it lost two inches of drop and it may be why its SwStr rate dropped over 10 points, but hot dang, he needs to not be so black/white with such a clear read to RHB. There’s hope he can figure out this problem in San Diego and possibly return his first sub 4.00 ERA in…no. NO. Has Pivetta never had a sub 4.00 ERA in the majors?! WOW.
It may look like he’s en route to the career milestone early in the season as he pitches in HR suppressing San Diego across those spring months, though it’s sure to normalize across the summer and with Pivetta’s career 1.53 HR/9 rearing its ugly head by July and ruining your fun, especially in a park than emphasizes RHB HRs. But hey, Pivetta still gets a ton of strikeouts and will be trusted to toss 90+ pitches on a winning club. Y’all know I love saying that last line but it’s so important. That makes Pivetta a HIPSTER who will destroy your heart when those longballs show up, but may have a way to limit them a little better in the year ahead. And yes, he’ll likely spend some time on the IL, but he’s had at least 140 IP in all of his last four seasons. Don’t think about that too much.
Quick Take: If you went for ratios early, Pivetta is a great addition later for strikeouts, even if it may not be for a full 170+ frames. Expect success early until the heat of the summer sends balls over the walls, though if he figures out how to not be so two-pitch against RHB, it could be the first sub 4.00 ERA of his career.
5. Matthew Boyd (CHC, LHP)
Here’s an interesting one. I like a lot about Boyd entering this year and I wonder if it makes way for sneaky value. Boyd has become the perfect example of a classic Guardians starter: Two secondaries for whiffs and a highly suspect fastball. His changeup from the left side has come a long way and turned into a proper slowball to flirt with a high strike rate and 20% SwStr rate against RHB and while we haven’t seen it take full shape for an entire season, it seems ready to pounce in 2025. His other half is the slide piece, a breaker that has been his bread-and-butter since he debuted and it is destined to continue befuddling LHB with the Cubs (and maybe some RHB too!).
But that heater. Oh boy, that heater. Boyd has solid command of the pitch with full hiLoc intent, but it has every sign of a poor stuff heater. Too much drop, low extension, 92/93 mph velocity, and it seems ready to be at the whim of the Wrigley winds for longballs galore.
We have yet to see a full season of a dastardly changeup and wicked slider from Boyd, and that alone makes me excited for a potential breakout season – the Cubs are sure to give him a long leash and regular starts every five days. However, temper your expectations as the home run problem could appear in the heat of the summer and balloon his ERA in a hurry.
Quick Take: Boyd has 25% strikeout potential and could become a surprise QS darling with his changeup and slider combo. However, his four-seamer gives me heavy concern and opens the door for a poor ERA on the back of an elevated home run rate. He’s a solid early play for volume out of the gate (likely Diamondbacks + Padres aren’t the most fun matchups, though) with sleeper potential in 15-teamers.