So much is happening in the early part of the season and it is tough to determine how much weight to put into certain things. Players are trying to show what improvements and adjustments they made during the offseason are legitimate. The challenge in fantasy is trying to get ahead of that breakthrough before it becomes widely recognized and then it is too late.
I wanted to take a look at some improvers in contact metrics to begin the season and see how it relates to a few cases in previous seasons. Now, this isn’t an exact science, but it can perhaps provide us some intriguing names that may or may not be on the verge. Specifically, let’s dive into a few of this season’s biggest improvers in Swinging Strike%.
SwStr% tells us how often pitches are swung and missed on. Often times, when there is a discrepancy between a hitter’s K% and SwStr%, we can lean on the latter to project which direction his K% will likely end up.
From 2023-2024, the biggest improver in SwStr% in baseball was Brenton Doyle. This was a major development for Doyle as his hit tool was holding him back from unlocking his power and speed skillset. His SwStr% in the first month of last season was about where his full season mark ended up.
It was a very similar case for 2022-2023’s biggest improver in SwStr% Gleyber Torres. Just to reiterate, it obviously won’t be as clean for every player. For instance, Christopher Morel was another significant season to season improver last year. However, his full 2024 SwStr% regressed a bit from his first month (12.6% → 14.8%). With that said, let’s get to the hitters.
Tovar is one of the most aggressive and free-swinging hitters in the league. Leading the league in Swing% since becoming a full time big leaguer in 2023, he’s maintained a K rate in the high 20s to go with a walk rate below 5%. That’s a dangerous combination to possess over an extended period of time as you won’t find many major league hitters with those sort of extremes.
The hyper aggressive hitters have to combat it with elite bat to ball skills. The names alongside him on the highest Swing% since 2023 include Bo Bichette, Yainer Diaz, Michael Harris, etc. These players all strike out at a better than average clip. With Tovar’s other promising traits, he needs to be able to emulate this mold of player to really ascend to the next level.
Thus far, he has toned down his aggressiveness a touch and significantly upped his Z-Contact% (88.7%) and Contact% overall (76.9%). In addition, his SwStr% is down 6.2% (19.2% → 13%). That has culminated into a 20.4% K rate so far which is right in the neighborhood of where he needs to live with his profile.
Furthermore, he’s hitting the ball harder than he ever has with a 45.9% HardHit%. He hasn’t elevated the ball like he did last season, but having a more balanced batted ball distribution is a good thing for him since he doesn’t possess great raw power. It is still early so things can certainly change, but perhaps he can mirror the Yainer Diaz approach. Diaz has run similar SwStr% marks in the 13%-14% range with a good K rate. Tovar’s current SwStr% is right at 13% so it will be interesting to follow that and his K% as the season progresses.
Langeliers has followed the Mike Zunino offensive blueprint at the catcher position with a high ISO and sub-.300 OBP in his career so far. That by itself provides a different flavor for catchers in fantasy and has made Cal Raleigh an appealing player. So far this year, Langeliers is making a ton of contact and walking more than he ever has. He’s cut his SwStr% by 5.3% (13.1% → 8%) from last season to this season so far.
These contact numbers for someone with the power ability of Langeliers are excellent. It is unrealistic to expect these numbers moving forward, but staying within the vicinity of these marks would make him one of the best catchers in fantasy. Langeliers is doing this while still maintaining a strong HardHit% (45.5%), although he is pounding everything into the dirt at the moment with a 54.5% GB%.
His 94.3% Z-Contact is good for 20th best in baseball so far. Chasing out of the zone less and swinging in the zone more is also always a good combination. If he were to somehow maintain a K rate below 20% along with his career ISO of .217, those would be numbers from the catching position that we haven’t seen since in a while. It is more realistic to expect his K% to settle around the 25% range. Even then, that combination still includes perennial top catcher options in Will Smith and Willson Contreras.
Shea Langeliers … LAUNCHED 🚀 pic.twitter.com/rf5rD09ywx
— MLB (@MLB) April 2, 2025
Worst case scenario, these numbers are a mirage and he returns as a slug first catcher who will hit close to 30 homers, but lack elsewhere. Likely, he will meet somewhere in the middle as he is in his prime years and we can expect players’ K rate to decrease as they age.
Vientos has gotten off to a poor start in 2025 after a heroic 2024 postseason and strong regular season. There were some red flags last season despite the big time power numbers as he struck out 34% of the time in the second half. Despite the bleak start, he has improved in various contact metrics including cutting his SwStr% by 4.7% (15.9% → 11.2%).
Unlike the previous names mentioned, Vientos’ contact quality has suffered with just a 30.3% HardHit% in the early going. I wouldn’t view that as a major concern as he has hit the ball hard every year in the majors. However, it will be an adjustment for him as pitchers pitch him differently and he tweaks his approach. He’s been an aggressive hitter for much of his career but has dialed that down and is chasing less than ever at 22.4%. Combined with making more contact in the zone and overall, things generally look okay under the hood.
Pitchers seem to be leveraging Vientos’ weaknesses against breaking and off-speed pitches. Last season, his Whiff% was north of 40% against both. He is seeing the same percentage of breaking balls as fastballs this season. After crushing fastballs last season, he’s now been worse against them this season.
Being stuck in between fastball and breaking ball is a tough place to be. Finding your timing as a hitter can take time early in the season. Vientos established himself as a slugger last season and despite the warts he showed, there are at least some signs of growth this season.
