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The Final Stride: Spencer Strider’s last rehab start

An in-person, batter-by-batter recap of the Atlanta ace's last outing.

The sun shone brightly last Thursday on a mild Norfolk afternoon. The wind blew in from right, just enough to keep the flags busy. And a buzz was in the air across Harbor Park.

Almost exactly a year ago, Spencer Strider went under the knife for his second elbow surgery, an internal brace procedure that would end his 2024 season after only two appearances.  It was a devastating blow to both player and team (though not the last injury the Braves would have to reckon with). Strider’s UCL damage was at least not extensive enough to require Tommy John—which would have put him out through this year’s All-Star Break—but would still mean a delayed start to his 2025 season.

While it’s been a delay, it’s been a short one.  Strider was initially pegged for an end-of-April return, but here we are in the second week of the month, and Strider has already made four appearances: two in Spring Training and two in a Minor League rehab stint with the Braves’ AAA affiliate, the Gwinnett Stripers.

And thus far, those appearances have been stunning (with one exception). In his first game back on March 17, he amazed the baseball world with a perfect outing, retiring all eight batters he came across with six strikeouts, all in less than 30 pitches. The second outing was less impressive, where he couldn’t get through two innings against a bunch of Orioles regulars and was pulled at his limit of 45 pitches.

In his first appearance with the Stripers on March 29, Strider finished three full innings with a half-dozen Ks, surrendering two hits and a single walk. On Friday, April 4, he tossed 5.1 innings of no-hit ball with eight Ks, building up to 74 pitches.  Manager Brian Snitker said he’d like to see Strider stretch out to 90 pitches before coming back to Atlanta.

So now, at the home of the Norfolk Tides, the best pitcher in baseball was ready to take on his final challenge. So let’s toe the rubber, blow on our fingers to keep them dry, and review his performance, inning by inning.

First Inning

Leading off for the Tides, Dylan Beavers attempted a bunt on the first pitch, but it slipped foul. He took a called strike fastball at the knees and suddenly had an 0-2 count, but fouled off the next three pitches.  In Strider’s last full season (2023), his pitch mix sat at about 60-30-10 fastball-slider-change. He added a curveball last year but only threw it a handful of times in his two starts before the injury. He’d throw one to Beavers in a 2-2 count, but the hitter was able to foul it off.  Still, it served as a nice setup pitch as the batter then whiffed on a fastball tailing out of the zone for strike three.  K-count: 1.

Another Dylan: this time Carlson, a former top prospect for the Cardinals who’d never faced Strider in the Majors. Hovering between 94 mph and 96 mph, Strider got to an 0-2 count again, alternating between the bottom and top of the zone. A slider missed just low that Carlson wisely took, but then he swung badly on another one that almost hit his back foot.  K-count: 2.

Coby Mayo came up next, the Tides’ biggest prospect, who hit 22 homers in just 89 games in AAA last year. Strider started with a fastball away, which Mayo took for a ball, then a fastball at the knees made it a 1-1 count. Strider then snapped off three straight nasty sliders, two of which Mayo swung and missed on, striking him out to end the inning.  K-count: 3.

 

Second Inning

Strider didn’t throw his first changeup until facing Vimael Machín in the bottom of the second. Machin fouled it off, and Strider tried another one but missed the zone. His slider was really starting to work, though, and he froze Machin on the inside corner for strike three. Machin appealed the call using the Minors’ ABS system, but the call stood.  K-count: 4.

Strider started peppering his slider down and away from righties, and Jud Fabian didn’t stand much of a chance. He took one outside, whiffed on an upstairs fastball, then another fastball hit the outside edge. The catcher (James McCann, who’s caught plenty of MLB pitchers in his time with the Tigers, Mets, and Braves) barely moved his glove as Fabian whiffed on a slider dropping away from the zone.  K-count: 5.

Against Livan Soto, with two outs and no one on, Strider seemed to start missing on his fastball, usually up and away. He was hovering around 95-96 mph most of the day, a couple of ticks down from his usual 98 mph offering, but said later he was trying to conserve given the length of the outing.  It didn’t seem to matter, even though Soto got ahead in the count 3-0. Strider kept with the fastball and basically threw three of them down the middle. Soto couldn’t keep up and went down swinging. For the second straight inning, the Tides failed to put a ball in play.  K-count: 6.

 

Third Inning

After throwing 19 pitches in the first inning and 18 in the second, Strider tried to improve his efficiency with the Stripers spotting him a run in the top half of the frame. A first-pitch fastball would get poked down the right-field line by Jordyn Adams for a double, though, and suddenly the Tides had the tying run in scoring position.

Spoiler alert: It wouldn’t matter.  Facing lefty Terrin Vavra, Strider got ahead 0-2 on two fastballs (one up, one down). A changeup nearly suckered Vavra, but the batter held back. He couldn’t resist a slider riding in on his hands on the next pitch, however, and missed badly.  K-count: 7.

By now, the Norfolk crowd was split between rooting for their team and appreciating the mastery on display. The Tides’ No. 9 hitter (Maverick Handley, a career .219 hitter in AAA) became the next lamb up for the sacrifice and struck out on four pitches. Strider hit 97 mph for the first time on a high fastball (the harder he threw, the more he seemed to be missing upstairs), then came back with another heater straight down Broadway. Handley barely got the bat off his shoulder before the ball was in the mitt.  K-count: 8

Now, with two outs and a man still on second, Beavers would get his second plate appearance. Strider, now in a comfortable groove pitching out of the stretch, went Fastball-Slider-Change to strike him out on three pitches. It was Strider’s first whiff on the changeup, which had a .122 batting average against in 2023. Still, it’s considered his weakest offering (though the curveball is too new to assess yet). Strider only needed 12 pitches to get through the inning, despite the leadoff hit.  K-count: 9.

 

Fourth Inning

Of all the Norfolk hitters, Carlson was the only one with extensive MLB experience (the Orioles have emptied the farm over the last few years). Batting lefty, the switch-hitter jumped on a first-pitch fastball on the outer half and took it the other way. But Carlson got just under it, and 290 feet away, it landed comfortably in the left fielder’s glove.

Up to this point, every hitter looked late or lost against Strider’s stuff, either overpowered by the fastball or fooled by the slider.  But when Mayo got his second chance, he squared up a fastball with a screaming line drive, 106.6 mph off the bat. Unfortunately for Mayo, it was straight at the shortstop. Strider was only three pitches into the inning and had two outs.

That pitch count would go up quickly, however, as Machin was able to draw a walk, even though he had two whiffs. But Strider was missing high again with the fastball and couldn’t get Machin to bite.

After another up-and-away fastball, Fabian took a called-strike slider and then missed one that broke out of the zone. In a 1-2 count, Strider froze him on the inside corner with a fastball—this time hitting his spot—and ended the inning with another baserunner stranded.  K-count: 10.

Fifth Inning

With the Stripers now up 3-0 and Strider already at double-digit strikeouts, he started to mix things up more.  He fed Soto two straight curveballs, a pitch labeled a work in progress but looking devastating in person. It has a looping 11-to-5 shape and is 20 mph slower than the fastball, averaging around 76 mph on the gun. Soto stared at the first curve for a strike and barely nicked the second, then after a changeup in the dirt, he tipped a fastball into the catcher’s mitt for strike three.  K-count: 11.

The crowd was now fully behind the Braves’ ace, but he’d walk Adams on six pitches (a couple of sliders missed badly outside). A lazy fly by Vavra made it two outs, but the Tides were about to put a rally together. Handley legged out a dribbling grounder to second, and suddenly runners were at first and third.

With the top of the order up a third time, Beavers got aggressive and lined Strider’s first-pitch fastball to right field for an RBI single. Strider was now in his first real spot of trouble, especially after Beavers stole second and put two runners in scoring position with Carlson at the plate.

Strider started Carlson off with a curveball called strike and then threw two straight changeups, the latter getting a whiff to make it a 1-2 count. Carlson fouled off a fastball, but Strider appeared more comfortable with his offspeed arsenal and spun two consecutive sliders down and in on the lefty. In a bit of deja vu from his first at-bat, Carlson waved at the last one in futility, and Strider was out of the jam.  K-count: 12.

 

Sixth Inning

At 82 pitches after five, the crowd wasn’t sure Strider would come out for the sixth, but he emerged from the dugout the moment the last Striper went down in the top half of the inning.  But he wouldn’t be out there for long, as Mayo would be his last full batter. ,Again Strider seemed to rely less on his heater and snapped three sliders in his first four pitches.  The fastball missed up and in, but the sliders all were tightly bunched on the lower outside corner.  Mayo whiffed on two of them, and Strider reached a baker’s dozen in the strikeout department.  K-count: 13.

With just a few reps left in his 90-pitch limit, Strider managed to get a couple of fastballs in for strikes before the skipper came out and asked for the ball.  The Norfolk crowd, won over by the inspiring performance like the Russian audience in Rocky IV, rose to its feet in a standing ovation as Strider made his way toward a AAA dugout for the final time.

 

Overall Verdict

To paraphrase John Wick: Yeah, I’m thinking he’s back.

That said, while the outcome shows an incredibly dominant performance, it was more of a man-versus-boys situation—a seasoned Major Leaguer against a group of overmatched upstarts.  Strider’s outing wasn’t perfect, especially with his fastball command (though he still threw 35 of 47 heaters for strikes).  He might have consciously taken a little off it while stretching out to his full pitch count, and sometimes that means you’re leaving it up.  Keep an eye on the radar gun when he starts for Atlanta next week, and see how much the catcher’s glove moves.

Still, the takeaway is Strider was able to rattle off 90 pitches, dominated in doing so, and felt good after. The slider was all there, and he threw it for strikes when behind in the count while slipping it off the corner when ahead.  And the curve, a weapon that’s yet to be fully unleashed on MLB hitters, will be fun to watch.  He didn’t get any whiffs on it but controlled the pitch well and got three called strikes on seven offerings.  Finally, the changeup—while it might only get used about 10% of the time—had impressive results with four whiffs.

All in all, Strider looks poised to pick up where he left off during his Cy Young effort in 2023.  He might not be as sharp out of the gate (depending on his velocity and how well he spots the fastball), but the strikeouts will come in bunches either way.  If he can get up to around 25 starts and 150 innings, that might be enough to lead the league in Ks.  And while he won’t have the best WHIP on your staff, he’ll contribute mightily in every other SP category.  Sit back and enjoy the show.

 

Strider by the numbers

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Scott McDermott

Scott lives in Virginia Beach with his wife, two daughters, and a couple of furballs. When he’s not dissecting box scores and pondering over the optimal starting lineup for the Cincinnati Reds, he covers fantasy baseball for Pitcher List. He’s also the author of the award-winning book series 'Election 2064', available on Amazon.

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