Congrats to Jon Gray for the most shocking line of the night with 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks against the Diamondbacks...though it actually shouldn't be surprising. That's 12 whiffs for Gray, nine with breaking stuff and he absolutely trounced the snakes in Arizona. I have to admit, I didn't realize Gray was doing this well over his last nine starts prior: 2.82 ERA, 8.28 K/9, and a 2.32 BB/9. Sure, he had a decently lax schedule, but he had Coors to deal with thrice and had a few tough opponents thrown in. I've been low on his lack of whiffs during this stretch - 8.5% overall with just two games above 9% - but I missed that he had 25.8% soft contact and just 28.4% hard in the same time frame while inducing just 24.7% flyballs and 53.9% grounders. The best part? Now he faces the Padres twice. My bad guys, I should have been giving him more love.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
in week 2 of a 2 week playoff and it’s a dead heat in h2h categories. i am practically interchangeable in terms of era and whip, and i have 4 guys available to start tomorrow: archer (v nyy), lester (v nym), clev (v det), and lamet (v min). i lead qs 7-4 but could use some buffering. seems like definite yes to lester and clevinger, but i am questionable with archer (seems like lamet is a def sit situation, especially after min’s 16 r outburst today). what do you think?
How many starts are left for your opponent?
I’d actually be okay starting all four, even with Archer’s latest bumps in the road and the Twins looking good yesterday.
after today, i have berrios, morton, happ, paxton (who i will probably sit, given dlh and astros), and keuchel, with spot starts available.
including today, he has glasnow, matt moore, brad peacock, luke weaver, robbie ray, newcomb, cole, and richards, with no spot starts available (he basically streamed the entire season.
i like my chances, even with archer blowing up early, but i still have a lot of guys whose floors are low. should be interesting, since in all other categories we are pretty much blowing each other out.
I think he’s going to run into trouble with Glasnow, Moore, and Newcomb, meaning you’ll be alright if you roll with the full crew today.
Montero really? Over Newcomb in the same matchup? Braves offense is much better than New York’s.
I actually considered this exact flop. I think Montero is a better pitcher right now as Newcomb is a much more wild pitcher.
what’s jon gray’s outlook in a keeper league?
I’ll probably have him around the mid to late 40s entering 2018.
I watched Garrett Richards’ start last night and he concerned me, as he was very effectively wild. He increasingly missed his spots as the game went on and the Astros kept bailing him out, mostly because his stuff was excellent. For example, his inning ending double play in the 5th: Maldonado called for it down and in, Richards missed badly high and McCann somehow got on top of it and grounded it to 2nd. I’m hoping its just rust that he’s still shaking off.
Well, yes and no.
I watched a bit of this one two and he did miss his spots a decent amount…but he also executed a ton and got outs every time he did.
Richards is never going to be a precision pitcher. What makes him tantalizing is exactly what you described: he can miss his spots and batters still have trouble squaring him up. It’s because of his elite velocity and ton of movement on each pitch that will mask plenty of mistakes.
I wouldn’t also classify Richards as your prototypical wild arm. Yes, he misses spots and isn’t a finesse guy, but he’s still much more around the plate than other arms and I think he can be a sub 3.00 BB/9 guy easily. There’s something to be said about that.
Fair enough. I hadn’t watched too much of him prior to this start. You’re absolutely right about him being around the plate. Even when he missed spots, he wasn’t throwing balls in the dirt, he wasn’t throwing many meatballs, he has general command of the plate, and his stuff is superb.
So McCullers has been scratched from tonight’s start due to arm fatigue… Would you drop him to stream for Weaver or Morton later this week. Or would you hold, hoping he will pitch again soon?
I get the feeling that the Astros are going to be super conservative with McCullers here, and considering there are only 10 days left in most leagues, I think you can drop McCullers.
I prefer Weaver of those two options.
Is Stephenson worth holding or ok to drop for a streamer? Also, how confident are you with Nola tonight? Miami scares me lately. Thanks!
My gut says stick with Nola, but if you can be conservative, it’s okay to bench him.
This was Stephenson’s tougher start, I think you’re okay rolling with him next time against the Pirates.
Would you rather stream Montero @ATL or Carson Fulmer @DET?
I’m leaning Fulmer. Totally possible he doesn’t come out firing like he did last time out, but I slightly prefer that to Montero’s floor and the Tigers look a lot worse than the Braves.
Hey Nick. Thanks for all of your help this year. After Archer’s performance today and Gray’s yesterday, would you drop the former to pick up the latter?
Jon Gray, to be clear
Yep, Gray’s two good starts ahead, he has a better chance of success.
Hey Nick,
Im in the playoffs in my H2H keeper league. Would you take a chance on starting Lamet tonight against the Twins? I like the advantage of him seeing the Twins for the first time.