Every week, I will be releasing “The List” where I rank the current value of the Top 100 pitchers in fantasy baseball for the rest of the season. Use these rankings to help understand what to expect from pitchers for the rest of 2016, and as a tool to gauge trade value in your fantasy leagues.
Let’s see how the SP landscape has changed since last week:
– Last week it appeared that Clayton Kershaw was on the verge of returning to the hill, but now there is a big risk that he may not pitch again in 2016. The chance that he still pitches puts him still inside the Top 15, but clearly his perch at #1 had to be contested.
– David Price and Jon Lester fall to the end of the Top 20 as their inconsistencies and under-the-hood numbers are dragging them down. Price’s startling 35.8% hard contact rate is easily the highest of his career and propels his WHIP 20 points from last year’s mark. While I expect Lester to outperform his 4.00 FIP due to his ability to induce soft contact at a 21.5% rate and limit hard contact to 27.5%, Lester isn’t flashing the dependable upside we wanted and it’s questionable if he’ll be Top 15 again this season.
– A solid jump this week for Scott Kazmir who has looked much improved over his last nine starts. It could quickly fall down, though it is very encouraging.
– Not encouraging is the situation of Sonny Gray, who stumbled in a big way against the Rays. While he should still be rostered, he looks far away from his 2015 self.
– The magic looks to be faded from Trevor Bauer, who takes another fall this week. It’s possible that he can reclaim some of it here and there, though his time as a member of the “Sea of Upside” has past.
– Andrew Cashner has looked like a new man with his Slider and made a return to the ranks. I wouldn’t jump too far for him, but ride it out and see where it goes.
– A good amount of young names join The List this week. Sean Manaea has become proficient with his Changeup and could follow the same path as fellow MLB debut twin Michael Fulmer. Jose Berrios returns given speculation that he’ll be called up soon as he’s destroying AAA opponents. Tyler Skaggs is entering the Angels’ rotation this week after earning multiple double-digit strikeout marks in the minors. Matt Boyd has been flashing his upside more often than expected, while Ivan Nova and Nathan Eovaldi have found their grooves inside the Yankee rotation. Eduardo Rodríguez may have fixed his command issues by a slight changing of his hands and it could spell the success I expected earlier in the season.
– Making room for them are Archie Bradley, Lucas Giolito, Tyler Glasnow, Chad Green, Brock Stewart, Daniel Mengden, Alex Reyes, Mike Montgomery, and Alex Cobb. Monty, Stewart, and Green don’t have good enough shot to rejoin the rotation, Giolito has been bouncing around too much to suggest a roster spot, Glasnow is injured, Mengden’s walk rates are atrocious, Reyes could be up soon, but may enter the bullpen first, and Bradley simply isn’t doing enough.