From a fantasy baseball and a real-life baseball standpoint, it hasn’t been the most ideal start for the Seattle Mariners from a run-scoring standpoint.
Seattle entered play Wednesday having outscored just nine other teams, while also sporting the league’s sixth-lowest on-base percentage. Of course, a collective 98 wRC+ as a team offers a bit more hope, but the struggles have carried over to individual players when looking at fantasy production as well.
Julio Rodríguez is sporting just a 99 wRC+, as well as just an 8.0% barrel rate despite elite hard-hit rate (50.3%) and bat speed (75.8 MPH average) metrics. The fantasy superstar is also striking out 28.1% of the time to go along with below-average whiff rate (31.9%) and chase rate (36.7%) metrics.
Elsewhere, Jorge Polanco (79), Mitch Garver (89), and Mitch Haniger (88) have all provided below league-average production at the plate. Of the trio, Haniger leads the way with a .223 batting average. Polanco’s .293 on-base percentage is top among the three.
So in short, not ideal. And that’s all without getting into Luis Urías or Dominic Canzone’s struggles at the plate.
That being said though, the Mariners lineup hasn’t been without bright spots fantasy-wise. Cal Raleigh is providing solid power production. Josh Rojas is enjoying his best offensive season in years.
But it’s been Dylan Moore and Luke Raley who stand out as players who are perhaps going a bit under the radar where their fantasy value and ceiling is concerned. Both are more than worth adding in the majority of leagues.
Nothing about Luke Raley’s underlying metrics for the season jump off the page. The 29-year-old is sporting just a .280 xwOBA while striking out exactly 30.0% of the time with just a 3.5% walk rate and a 33.9% whiff rate. He’s also sporting just a .224 xBA.
Really, the bat speed (at 74.2 MPH) is the only thing that stands out.
However, much of that can likely be attributed to a slow start in which the outfielder and first baseman hit just .218 with a .232 on-base percentage, a .055 ISO, a .316 BABIP, and a 46 wRC+ before the month of May. That sample size included 56 plate appearances; 56 plate appearances which did not include a base on balls.
Since the calendar flipped to the month of May, Raley has been a decidedly more productive hitter, both overall and for fantasy purposes, with the 29-year-old showing the trademark power and speed production that made him such a quality fantasy option last year.
The former Tampa Bay Ray was one of just 30 players in the league to log both double-digit stolen bases and home runs while also turning in an ISO of .200 or better last season. He nearly reached two of those statistical markers based on his May and June production alone.
Since the start of May, Raley is hitting .288 with a .351 on-base percentage, a .510 slugging percentage, a .221 ISO, six home runs, and four stolen bases. And while you could point to a .375 BABIP (not to mention a 29.8% strikeout rate) during that span as signs of unsustainability, it’s worth noting that the 29-year-old also registered a 10.0% barrel rate during the span.
Furthermore, Raley is no stranger to strong runs at the plate. To call his production streaky is probably an understatement, but when he’s on a good run of form, he’s a must-start for fantasy purposes.
Now, a couple of caveats here are that in the months not listed since the start of the 2023 season, Raley’s wRC+ eclipsed the league average mark of 100 just once. Furthermore, the Mariners mainly start him against right-handed opposition. Still, with the instant impact he can make in a less-than-full slate of plate appearances makes him a must-add at the moment.
Dylan Moore, like Raley, brings similar speed and power production to the table from a fantasy standpoint. The 29-year-old has reached double-digit stolen bases in four of his last five seasons, including 21 in each of the 2021 and 2022 campaigns.
Moore has reached double-digit home runs just once before in his career, but it’s worth noting that the infielder and outfielder has logged more than 300 plate appearances in a season just once in his Major League career. It’s not hard to see Moore easily eclipsing double-digit home runs, or even pushing for close to 20 with an increase in plate appearances, something that seems a real possibility this season given Moore’s versatility and the Mariners’ collective struggles as a lineup.
As is somewhat the case with Raley, Moore brings a ton of versatility to the table for fantasy managers. Which is not to say that Raley doesn’t. He does, with eligibility at first base and in the outfield, fantasy eligibility that only adds to his own fantasy upside and ceiling.
But Moore is eligible at every position except first base, pitcher, and catcher, offering near-limitless lineup options. Particularly for those who value having a shorter bench where position players are concerned, Moore makes for an ideal addition. Regardless of how many players you prefer to have on your bench, the value (and influx of production) of having a player capable of stepping in when teams or other plays have days off can be crucial when looking at season-long results, both in Roto and head-to-head formats.
Furthermore, when you factor in the upside to contribute in multiple categories along with that versatility, it gives the 31-year-old unique fantasy upside.
And while strikeouts have been an issue in years past – Moore has never finished with a strikeout rate below 29.4% in a full season in his career – he’s down to a 25.1% number so far this season, with a whiff rate that would easily be a new career best.
As long as his plate discipline numbers keep trending in this direction, Moore should have no trouble raising his batting average from the .213 mark it’s at now. There’s also a career-low .259 BABIP which seems due for a bit of positive regression in itself.
And just to put a bow on the Moore/Raley comparisons, here’s what Moore has done since May 1:
Both players are worth adding in all formats, Raley as a starting option while he’s on a tear at the plate, and Moore as an ideal bench option who can provide solid production when he’s starting.