The Monty Baller Problem

I know that look. I’ve seen it before and I know what’s coming . Nick! Did you realize that after Rafael Montero went 8.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 8...

I know that look. I’ve seen it before and I know what’s coming . Nick! Did you realize that after Rafael Montero went 8.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks last night against the Reds, he holds a 2.10 ERA and 8.42 K/9 over his last four starts? Sure do. So why do I smell a but? That’s because…I’m going to hold that one back. Anyway, you may be tempted to roll with Montero after this recent stretch and I get that, but what I see is a 4.33 xFIP (4.2% HR/FB rate) with a poor 4.15 BB/9 and just not enough to tells me he’s turned a corner to be an arm you want to trust down the stretch. Phils, Reds, Braves, Nationals, Braves await if you’re daring, and maybe for that stream against the Phillies, but definitely not more than that from me. There’s a reason his ERA is north of 5.00 ERA and that floor hasn’t suddenly disappeared.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Jose Berrios – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. That’s 27 Ks in his last three starts with 3 ER to his name across 19.1 innings. Sure, his last two were against the ChiSox with the Dbacks outside of Arizona in the other, but he doesn’t face a top tier offense the rest of the way and could have six starts to go. That’s my kind of man. I wonder where he gets drafted next season.

Stephen Strasburg – 9.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace. He’s allowed 6 ER total in his last seven games. Awwwwww yis.

Travis Wood – 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks. It’s the wrong Wood! With a WHIP over 2.00 and just 1 K. Nope.

Trevor Bauer – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. I think we’re cool with this as he dealt with the Bronx. Keep rolling with Bauer, he has a solid schedule the rest of the way.

Andrew Cashner – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. I think we can all reasonably agree that the Biggest TEEs Award for 2017 is going to go to Andrew Chashner, as he carries a 3.30 ERA with a 4.65 K/9 and 5.21 xFIP. And remember, he calls Arlington his home stadium. Jeeeeez.

R.A. Dickey – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. It’s a 2.58 ERA over his last 13 starts now. Ehhhhh, you guys know I hate buying into (DTAKB) and I can see people tempted to chase Dickey as he has a good ROS schedule. I don’t like owning pitchers who you can’t read. It’s as simple as that. Dickey is doing well right now, he could do terrible tomorrow. I don’t know. He doesn’t know.

Jaime Garcia – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Garcia survived this one. Don’t expect him to again.

J.A. Happ – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. This is oddly beneficial and feel dirty for feeling that way. Four walks and just two strikeouts? Dude. Come on.

Ryan Merritt – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Sorry, this isn’t a Merrittocracy. This won’t get you anywhere closer to my team.

Rick Porcello – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Now you may be remember Porcello’s nice trio of starts just a moment back and thinking Hey! He’s on the right track! But then I have you remind you his 4 ER (7 extra unearned), 11 baserunner start from last time out. Sure, he got terrible fielding behind him, but this is too small a sample to ignore the rest of the season.

Robbie Ray – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. What do I always say about Ray? “He does really well against bad teams and poorly against good teams.” This was against the Dodgers. Whoops. This is actually the second time he’s demolished the Dodgers, so maybe they are the exception? I still stand by the inconsistency of Ray, but the good great news for him is that after his next start…against the Dodgers…he alternates between the Padres and Giants for his final four games. OH BABY.

Julio Teheran – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. It was on the road and against the Phils. This is the most ideal outing you can imagine for Teheran.

Justin Verlander – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Verlander went into Coors and he conquered it. Aces gonna ace. Don’t worry about the DTD you might see on ESPN/Yahoo. He said he felt a little tired from hitting in Coors. It didn’t affect him yesterday and it won’t affect him next time out.

Homer Bailey – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Look at that, Homer Bale is picking it up! On the real though, let’s hope he finds so sort of groove so he can not be downright terrible next season.

Adam Conley – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Ehhhh I guess we’re okay with this against the Nationals? Man, they really are hurting without Harper in the lineup. I think I over-estimated their offensive ability with just Murphy/Rendon/Zim.

Chase Anderson – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Chase has the toughest ROS schedule of anyone out there save for teammate Zach Daviesthough he may still be valuable even against tough teams, like last night against St. Louis. Sure it was a PQS, but that WHIP with 6 Ks are much appreciated.

Ty Blach – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. Blach.

Mark Leiter Jr. – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. If you ran with Leiter, I think you’re happy with this. It’s not pretty, but for a streamer it’s serviceable. I can see myself picking him against the Mets next time out.

Carlos Martinez – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. CarMart got Singled out here, I’m just impressed he didn’t walk a batter and gave you seven Ks.

Jake Odorizzi – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Nope, still not there yet Odorizzi. Maybe a super sleeper next year for deeper leagues.

Jose Quintana – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks. Quintana is back to his old ways with a PQS and a good WHIP. The 3/4 extra Ks are super welcome as well.

Jordan Montgomery – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. The Bear returned for the Yanks’ double-header and it wasn’t good. At all. He might get a few more shots this year as rosters expand tomorrow

Ivan Nova – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. This is the Nova you should remember. Not the April version.

Chad Bettis – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Starts like these make me nostalgic for the 2015 default Colorado Rockies blurb. Those were the days…

Kendall Graveman – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. This is why we can’t have nice things. Graveman just doesn’t have the arsenal that makes me believe he can avoid starts like this on a constant basis – and this was the Angels!

Derek Holland – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. The Dutch Invasion never ends. IT NEVER ENDS.

Jason Vargas – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Vargas’ own Vargas Rule applied a long time ago. Seriously, he’s holding a 7.20 ERA since July 5th. Yikes.

Jerad Eickhoff – 2.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. This one hurt a bit. Eickhoff had been holding a 3.25 ERA with an 8.78 K/9 in his previous 10 games, gets a good matchup against the Braves, and leaves the game with an injury after throwing low velocity Fastballs. Yes, you can drop him. Streamer Record 68-52-14. With 32 days left of games, my Magic Number is at 9 to be over 50% with my streams. No problem, right?

Ubaldo Jimenez – 2.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Yep, that’s Ubaldo alright.

Dallas Keuchel – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Duuuuude. I bumped you a little since you had this extra start that had you lined up for seven the rest of the way, and you repay me with this? I thought we were over the DLH bit after your last three starts rendered just 3 ER total, but no. You had to hit a battter with the bases loaded, then allow a 2-RBI single, then a 3-Run Bomb. THANKS FOR NOTHING. (Yes still roll with him like everything is fine).

Ariel Miranda – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. I don’t want to be part of this world.

Hyun-Jin Ryu – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. I wonder if Ryu is the first to get the axe as McCarthy and Wood return to the rotation. He’ll probably just axe himself before that happens. We might see a six-man rotation as well, so don’t count Ryu out just yet.

Parker Bridwell – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. It was The Vargas Rule and we knew it was going to happen at some point. Against the A’s though…?

Today’s Streamer

Robert Stephenson vs. New York Mets – Not much to choose from here, so I’ll go with the guy fresh off 11 Ks facing one of the saddest lineups around.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Chris Stratton vs. St. Louis Cardinals – It’s Stratton of Joe Biagini against the Orioles, and I’m leaning Stratton who has been feeling his Fastball/Curveball combination.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Tyler Mahle vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – I don’t like this. At all. But I don’t want to trust A.J. Griffin anymore as he faces the Angels, and me and Jose Urena aren’t cool despite facing the Phils. I’ll take my chances that Mahle suffered from the jitters in his first start and finds a groove against a bad Pirates offense.

Game of the Day

Zack Greinke vs. Kenta Maeda – I adore watching Greinke pitch and hey! It’s Maeda.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

14 responses to “The Monty Baller Problem”

  1. Fletch47 says:

    Montero is a two start pitcher next week against the Phils and Reds at home. Are you saying he’s not worth the risk during the Fantasy Playoffs? Are there other (readily available) 2-start streamers you’d recommend over him?

  2. Jeremy says:

    TEX 20 total runs in 2 games in series so far vs HOU. Should we still trust McHugh to get the best of the rubber match today? You guys have given him the Start designation and assigned TEX as a bottom tier team playing away, but I’m not so sure McHugh’s FIP/xFIP over past 30 days is exactly all that encouraging. What you think?

  3. Shane says:

    Can you provide links to the glossary of the terms when you use a term? I can’t remember every single acronym/term

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Totally get that! I actually thought I had set it up so they got auto-linked every time. I’ll look into it!

  4. Joe says:

    The Giants have Johnny Cueto off the DL and starting Friday, bumping Stratton to Saturday

  5. Brent Erickson says:

    Hey Nick was curious about Johnny Cueto’s ROS now that he’s pitching Friday. He was terrible in in his last rehab start. My playoffs don’t start til Sept 11th but am trying to accumulate as much talent until then. Here are my pitchers deGrom, Verlander, Godley, Cole, Pomernanz, Peacock, Weaver, McCullers and Paxton. I can drop a position player. Would you add Cueto or Clevinger or stand pat? Thanks for all your hard work.

  6. RRH says:

    Which side of Blake Snell vs. Reynaldo Lopez do you like tomorrow? In Chicago fwiw.

  7. Jim stansil says:

    Trust Jack Flaherty tomorrow?

  8. Ferg says:

    One pickup left this week for first week of playoffs. Grab Manael, Mahle or Flaherty?

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