The Ore-Gone Strail

I don’t like Dan Straily. Well okay, maybe as a person I have to hand it to him for his journey and continued perseverance to figure out his repertoire, etc. but...

I don’t like Dan Straily. Well okay, maybe as a person I have to hand it to him for his journey and continued perseverance to figure out his repertoire, etc. but it is just so frustrating trying to explain why I don’t want to own this guy in my leagues and last night’s 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 14 Ks is just one giant eye-roll to me. Think Hinox in Breath of the Wild. But Nick, why do you dislike Straily? Because his Fastball is pretty dang meh and while his Slider can carry him through strikeouts from time to time, he’s going to burn you more than help. Great example is his current season, where his first three starts accrued just 13.2 innings with nine walks and just 10 Ks. Nine walks! But now Straily goes against the Padres and everything is so skewed and making everyone go “Ohhhhh what if?!” Stupid Padres ruining everything. You know how many games Straily has had more than 8 Ks in since 2014? Just one. ONE. Moreso, since the start of 2016, Straily fanned five or fewer batters in 75% of his starts. That’s what you’re dealing with here, a guy who is going to be so boring each week and heavily risk you getting burned. I guess I’m fine starting him against the Padres and maybe one or two other teams in the majors. That’s it. Yay.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Carlos Carrasco – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Carrasco doesn’t get nearly the same love as others in the top tier like Darvish, Strasburg, Lester, etc. and it’s nice to see him show off his moves. I belong here. I BELONG HERE.

Gio Gonzalez – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. How good has Gio been thus far? 1.35 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while giving you at least 6 Ks in three of his four starts. He’s faced the Phils, Mets, Cards, and Marlins along that path though, and his 3.95 xFIP (3.29 FIP) isn’t the most encouraging, but I’d be pretty happy owning Gio thus far. Sure, I expect his ERA to be between 3.50 – 4.00 by season’s end but I’m totally cool with that in a 12 teamer when it comes with his solid K production.

Antonio Senzatela – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Nick, you’re clearly missing the boat here with Senz-A. That’s a 2.08 ERA, just 1.38 BB/9, 6.5 IPS and 0.85 WHIP in four starts! Totally get that and hats off to him doing so well. I still don’t think that when he pitches against, say, the Nationals in Coors next week you’ll be happy owning him – his last three starts have been against the Padres and Giants twice, two of the worst offenses around. If you want to take that flier, fine, go ahead. I really just don’t see him playing out across the season as a 3.60 ERA guy with a good WHIP. I just don’t.

Nick Martinez – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Oh lord, not this again. Martinez used to be every non-sabermetric fantasy owners darling after giving a super low ERA in four starts back in 2015, then of course blowing up in their faces and keeping his atrociously low K rate. Don’t fall for this, please.

Lance Lynn – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Lynn doesn’t care about the Brewers explosive offense and gave us his best start of the season. Atta boy Lynn.

Ian Kennedy – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Ehhh, just three Ks but everything else is solid as he faced the Rangers. I’ll take it. Hard to get too far behind this start though given Kennedy’s history of holding a low floor.

Jerad Eickhoff – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. There’s the underrated arm that we know and love. He’ll never be Top 30, but I’ll be damned if he falls outside the Top 60. Gotta love the NL Easy.

Chase Anderson – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. So we’ve seen Peralta, Nelson, and Davies already come down to earth, but the last to fall is Anderson who is still killing it. He now holds a 8.25 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 1.13 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP across four outings with a 6.0 IPS. And it’s not like he went against the Schmoes of Schmotown, facing the Rockies and Cubs in there. Now I’m not totally buying this as he holds a 3.8% HR/FB rate inside Miller Park, but his whiff rate has bumped nearly two points to a great 10.2% mark, bolstered by his Curveball that has increased two ticks in velocity and finally mixing in a Two-Seamer that’s helping keep batters at bay. I’m not really sold here but he’s worth a flier in a 12-teamer. Just keep a short leash here.

Jaime Garcia – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Garcia isn’t my favorite arm, but pitching in the NL Easy does allow starts against the Phils and there’s always a chance for these outings there. Not rosterable long term, of course.

Jered Weaver – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Because I’m not that arrogant, I won’t tell you that I casued Weaver to suddenly pitch well to stop me from making fun of him, but hot damn, three straight started of 2 ER ball? What is this.

Tyler Skaggs – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Man the Jays are terrible. Still, Skaggs didn’t pitch himself out of this one, for a change. Do I like him against other teams? Meh, I recognize the K upside but he’s may too sporadic for my tastes.

Jharel Cotton – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Sure Cotton, whatever. Yeah I want more Ks, but your command was pretty iffy today and to see you not demolish my ratios despite the situation is oddly encouraging.  

Jayson Aquino – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Do I want to start Aquino? No Jay, son. That was terrible. So is your face. And Aquino’s hypothetical 2017 season in the Orioles rotation, which I guess is a little more relevant. But also your face.

Michael Pineda – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. This is the most non-Schrodinger start from Schrodinger that we’ll find this year. Well, maybe not since we had a good amount of Ks and a bad ERA/WHIP. So whatever. Did this douse the flame on his hype a little? …Maybe?

Blake Snell – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks. One day, Snell will wake up and say “you know, what if I do everything possible to not walk a single batter today?” Sure he’ll probably get lit up that game, but what if he doesn’t? WHY DID I HAVE THE BOWL, BART? Anyway, I don’t expect to trust Snell for ages and I’m dropping him in 12 teamers. Just too much volatility and I’d rather stream.

Jake Arrieta – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. He allowed the first two batters on then a Votto bomb, then a Suarez tater. And that was it. Essentially Arrieta pitched six shutout innings after putting himself in a hole early. I’M GOING TO FIX THIS. You could have gone CGSHO and still messed up our ERA bucko. Really nice to see the lack of walks though, at the same time the Slutter to Votto was a terrible pitch and the hook to Suarez hung more than it should have. Just saying.

Matthew Boyd – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Yeah, I’m not trusting Boyd for a stable outing just yet. I’m still just Boyd Watching. 

Jacob deGrom – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 6 BBs, 10 Ks. Six walks?! What is this. I’m not changing anything here – there might be a few changes in the Top 15 tomorrow, not entirely sure yet – but this is just…weird.

Mike Pelfrey – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. He was pulled after 81 pitches before the fifth ended. In a 4-0 game. The ChiSox are showing less faith in Pelfrey than Job inside the whale. I’ve watched all of Arrested Development and Job is never in a whale. There are more Jobs in this world than you think. THEN WHY AM I STILL UNEMPLOYED?

Jameson Taillon – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Noooooo. Not only did I lose one of the newly annointed Spare Tires in Garret Richards yesterday (maybe someone else will take his place? Norris? Lynn? We’ll see) but Taillon, who was looking like his dominant self through five allowed an infield single, walk, then three-run bomb. That’s exactly how Taillon is going to get burned this year – not consistent ERs per inning, not getting lit up with a ton of hard hit balls, but with a walk, infield single and a tate. You’re still my dude, dude.

Casey Lawrence – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Because the Jays are hurting more than my ego during prom, Lawrence got himself a start and was met with a ghastly line. Cup of Schmo through and through.

Adalberto Mejia – 2.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Mejia sounds awfully close to that Tyler Perry character and I am starting to regret making that connection.

Charlie Morton – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Man, he was making me look great until allowing the first three baserunners on in the sixth, getting pulled, and the Astros bullpen allowed all three to score. Now he gets two tough starts and I have a bad feeling he’ll be hurt by the time I’d conceivably want to stream him again. It’s been real Morton. Streamer Record 8.5-6-2.

Robbie Ray – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. The Ks are there. The WHIP is high. The ERA is terrible. But if Ray just lowered his walk rate and his HR/FB rate was league average…That’s why it’s all about paths to upside, ya’ll. That really should be a term used more often.

Ariel Miranda – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. You have the right to not start Ariel whenever you want. I highly recommend exercising these Miranda rights.

Kenta Maeda – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. It’s super weird to be saying that Maeda might be droppable, but he might be…? I mean, he’s this bad and he’s had a fair share of bad luck, but the Slider isn’t working like it did last year, which is making it tougher to get by with his average Fastball. To be fair, getting the dBacks + Coors in the last three starts isn’t doing him any favors. I the Dodgers keep him in the rotation – which I think they will – I’d still roll him out there against the Giants next. He’ll have another start against SFG followed by the Pirates after that, so this could turn around quickly.

Steven Wright – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. Wright promised me he was going to have more strikeouts than walks today. Don’t trust a knuckleballer.

Matt Moore – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. And the descent continues for Moore, though that is completely unfair as this was in Coors. Let’s talk next time.

Cody Reed – 2.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks. It’s going to be a while before Reed is fantasy relevant.

Today’s Streamer

Jordan Montgomery vs Pittsburgh Pirates A Pirates lineup sans Marte and a lefty that has decent deception and decent whiffability? Yeah, let’s do this.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Brett Anderson vs. Pittsburgh Pirates I would consider Miguel Gonzalez against the Royals if I were truly desperate in a deep league, but Anderson is the better choice as he could steal an easy Win to start your week.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Wei-Yin Chen vs Philadelphia Phillies – I don’t want this one. I don’t believe in Chen to be a consistent starter, even against the Phils, but man there are no other options today. Maybe Jesse Hahn against the Angels? Whatever, these aren’t going against the streaming record.

Game of the Day

Max Scherzer vs. Zack Wheeler – Man, if Wheeler outduels Scherzer the hype will be fun to watch.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

11 responses to “The Ore-Gone Strail”

  1. RRH says:

    How worried are you about Arrieta, if at all? His velocity is down by a few MPH (despite the new measurement method tending to inflate velocity by a couple MPH relative to last year.

    Currently pondering my CarGo and Benoit for his Arrieta and Nola in a 10 team H2H redraft with OBP, SLG, QS, K/9, SVH — seems like a good deal but I’m concerned about Arrieta. I have sufficient OF depth.

  2. Chris says:

    I benched Lynn, but he is showing me something here. Granted Brewers are strikeout machines, but against a fastball heavy guy like Lynn I thought a few would carry out of Milwaukee (Robbie Ray syndrome.) Lynn and E.Santana have become must-starts for me until I start seeing a string of bad starts (or poor matchup, like Coors)

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Sorry to be frank, but Ray doesn’t give up the longballs because of the heater. It’s because he has a terrible third pitch and his Slider is inconsistent.

      And that’s totally rational for Santana/Lynn. I don’t think Santana will keep this up but there’s little reason not to run him now until he hits the wall.

  3. Tabernathy says:

    should I trade Dylan Bundy for Edwin Diaz?

  4. Hatim says:

    Degrom was intentionally walking Bryce Harper, just in case your are just checking box scores and not watching the actual game.

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