Welcome to the PLV Power Report! Here, we examine hitter performance by utilizing Power+, a PLV+ metric that indexes a player’s power based on the characteristics of the pitch, i.e., count, location, velocity, induced vertical break, height-adjusted vertical approach angle, and other factors. Essentially, we’re searching for players with upside who are adding power based on the expectation of the individual pitches they see.
For example, say a hitter hits a well-located fastball on the outside corner that might typically coax a weak line drive, but instead, they belt a home run the opposite way; they’ll get a much better power grade for that outcome. Conversely, if that hitter sees a hanging changeup over the heart of the plate, or another pitch that would normally be crushed, and instead pops up to short, they’ll get a much lower score for the outcome. The power metric is unique because it provides a more intuitive way to assess player performance by accounting for the quality of each pitch they see. In other words, it’s a good way to check if a player is over- or underperforming by adding context. Note that Power+, like PLV+ metrics, is normalized to 100 and generally becomes more meaningful after around 75 BBE (batted ball events).
If you’re new to the PLV metrics, you can find Nick’s primer here.
This week, we’ll take a quick look at some of the year’s surprisingly productive veterans.
Note: PLV metrics are current through Thursday, September 11th.
I don’t suspect many people were too optimistic about Springer’s prospects this season, coming off a career-low 94 wRC+ in his age-34 campaign. But here we are, two weeks into the football season, and that same Springer is one home run shy of what would be his first 30-home run season since 2019. And he also has a 162 wRC+, third among qualifiers behind only Ohtani (169) and Judge (199). Springer’s Power+ plummeted to 91 last year, although his decisions remained in the upper echelon (138 DV+).
This year, Springer’s Power+ has skyrocketed more than two standard deviations to 121. And, yep, he has maintained superb swing decisions (133 DV+). I know history says we should bet against 36-year-olds, but, boy, I think it’s hard to look past him next year, even at an elevated ADP (he was the 62nd OF this past season in NFBC).
Springer’s stunning turnaround had me wonder if Mike Trout can bounce back similarly in 2026, after posting a career-low 115 wRC+. You certainly can’t rule it out; win, lose, or draw, Trout is/was one of the most remarkable talents any of us will ever see. But the big difference between the two, if you are thinking along the same lines, is that while Trout’s 123 Power+ is great, his Contact Ability has fallen about a standard deviation to 79 (Springer is about average at 103). I’ll never bet against Trout, but the strikeouts are a glaring weakness in his current profile that you can’t ignore.
Schwarber has, of course, hit nukes his entire career, but his age-32 season has been nearly unbelievable. He hit his 53rd on Monday night, putting him five away from matching Ryan Howard’s Phillies record. Last year’s 55.5% hard-hit rate was in the 98th percentile according to Savant. This year, he has climbed to the very top of the scale at 60.2%, three points ahead of Judge. PLV still has Ohtani (152) and Judge (151) at the top of the Power+ scale. However, Schwarber’s 147 isn’t far behind, and it’s also a pretty decent leap from last year’s 136. His rolling chart belongs in the Louvre.
I mentioned Trout earlier, but Byron Buxton proved to be the better What if he stays healthy gamble, the latter holding an NFBC ADP well past pick 200. Although granted, he was a much sounder pick in IL leagues. Either way, the 31-year-old has been phenomenal, having bagged his first 30-homer season on September 7th. You could say the breakout was more of a product of him simply staying on the field than anything else, this being the first time he’s cleared 400 PAs since 2017. Still, Buxton’s 127 Power+ is five ticks better than what we saw last year.
Laureano piqued the interest of fantasy managers back in 2019 when he swatted 19 home runs and stole 13 bases as a 24-year-old for the A’s. But, alas, he fell by the wayside and never quite solidified himself as much more than a fourth outfielder until this year, when he led the Orioles with a 144 wRC+ across 290 PAs before being shipped to the Padres. Granted, he didn’t help his case with a PED suspension four years ago. Still, you wonder how many potentially productive players like Laureano fall through the cracks, never getting the right opportunity at the right time to prove themselves. There are many good examples, but Max Muncy and Brent Rooker come to mind as late bloomers. Regardless, Laureano is just one shy of matching the 24 he hit back in 2019, and his 122 Power+ says it’s all well-deserved.
Like Laureano, Grisham showed some ability early in his career, most notably notching 10 home runs and 10 steals during the shortened 2020 season. However, he entered the season looking like an afterthought as a glove-first fourth outfielder who had hit .191 with an 87 wRC+ over his previous three seasons (1,288 PAs). Fast forward a few months, and the 28-year-old veteran has 30 home runs, blowing his previous best of 17 out of the water. Grisham’s 112 Power+ backs the big season and is a night-and-day difference from the 85 he posted last season. The breakthrough is also backed by really good swing decisions (121 DV+), which have made him Aaron Boone’s preferred leadoff man against righties.
Fine, the .216 batting average and 101 wRC+ aren’t exactly turning heads. Still, I don’t think many people predicted Clemens having the third-most home runs on the Twins; he has 19, for those of you who aren’t in deep leagues. I’d say that qualifies as a surprising breakthrough, considering The Rocket’s son hadn’t eclipsed five home runs or 200 PAs since debuting with Detroit three years ago, the team that selected him out of The University of Texas 79th overall in 2018. Kody’s 88 DV+ and 94 Contact Ability+ are a little dicey, but his 112 Power+ plays.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads
@kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)
