This Will Hurt Suter or Later

I’ve seen a ton of love for Milwaukee starter Brent Suter and after last night’s excellent out of 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks, we really...

I’ve seen a ton of love for Milwaukee starter Brent Suter and after last night’s excellent out of 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks, we really need to talk. He’s been a reliever most of the year, but has recently jumped to the rotation (I’m going to exclude a spot start on June 13th), where he’s held a 1.50 ERA, 7.50 K/9, and 1.50 BB/9 and 6 IPS through 5 starts. Solid stuff! Why do I feel like you’re going to not be friendly to Suter now. Because I’m not? I hate the fact that he’s throwing under 87mph. I hate that he doesn’t have a pitch with a whiff rate above 14%. I hate that during these starts, he faced the Yankees at their worst, Orioles, Pirates, Phillies, and now Cubs. I hate that he has a near 4.00 xFIP in these starts. Essentially, there’s nothing good here. I watched him and think he’s fine. There’s a decent amount of deception with his arm-angle and I’m sure some people see this as a lefty Kyle HendricksEhhhhh, that’s a bit of a stretch given the super small sample size and the fact that Hendricks isn’t that great either. I don’t blame you for running him out there next time against the Cardinals, but the Twins + Reds + Coors following will not go well. It just doesn’t Sute me.

Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:

Michael Wacha – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Great rebound Wacha, can’t say I expected you to do well against the hot Diamondbacks. I’m all for starting him against the Brewers/Royals/Braves next.

Masahiro Tanaka – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 14 Ks. Well hot diggity-damn. The reference point I’m using for Tanaka is when Eddy and I debated about him on the podcast before June 28th’s game. Since then, he has a 10.85 K/9 and 0.92 BB/9 with a 3.69 REA and 19.4% HR/FB. To Eddy’s credit, we made the bet of over/under 18% HR/FB rate and I took the under. So that isn’t working out, but I think we can all agree we’d take these numbers from Tanaka…which are obviously massively influenced by this start. But hey! So did his 4.1 IP 5 ER outing on July 9th. I’m not ready to say that Tanaka has fully figure it out just yet – it was 12 ER in three starts prior – but obviously we’re grabbing on for the ride.

Parker Bridwell – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Like Suter, I’m sure Bridwell is getting a good amount of love with his 2.83 ERA now across 54 frames. Thing is, he’s had just two games above 4 Ks (5 and 8), with a 4.84 xFIP, 4.89 FIP, near 90% LOB Rate, and only 13.2% soft contact. That is terrible. I don’t like investing in this one.

Robbie Ray – 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. If you haven’t heard, Ray got a comebacker to the head last night. Apparently he showered and returned to the locker room and is going under concussion protocol now so that’s good. Hope he recovers soon. I’d imagine he misses one start at a minimum, and his upcoming schedule wasn’t enticing anyway.

Jake Thompson – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. There’s a name I haven’t heard in long time. Well fine, 2016 feels like ages ago! And he has pitched out of relief three times this year. BUT I DIGRESS. Thompson was a major Cup of Schmo last year and 2017 is no different. Let’s move along.

Jason Vargas – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Here’s a fun game. Which is higher? Vargas’ xFIP over the last 7 games or his K/9? xFIP: 5.79. K/9: 4.89. Check please.

Chad Kuhl – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks. Kuhl story, bro.

Andrew Cashner – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. I Cashed Out a long time ago. Sorry bud.

Sal Romano – 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 6 BBs, 5 Ks. Man, what did I say last time? “I don’t see him avoiding walks and I question if he can really be a strikeout machine and survive through six often” Why do I do this to myself. IT’S RIGHT THERE NICK. Streamer Record 52-39-12.

Jose Quintana – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Yep, I will certainly take this Quintana and your 2.59 ERA since June 6th. I am alittle surprised he’s had only six Quality Starts in those 10 outings, though.

Danny Salazar – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. On one hand, yes he’s still killing it en route to a Gallows Pole of 23 Whiffs. On the other, this was a clear start against the White Sox without their all-star Garcia. I mean, I’d consider starting a Drinking Bird against the ChiSox right now. The real test comes next time out against the Yankees, following by the HR happy Rays, then surprisingly decent Twins, then Red Sox, then hot Royals (we’ll see if they’re still hot), and Yanks again…man this schedule sucks. I’d love to sell high now and I’m willing to eat Croooooow if he is a fantasy MVP down the stretch.

Travis Wood – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Pfffft like I’m going to believe this with any sort of consistency.

Jaime Garcia – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Hey look at that! Welcome to the Twins Garcia, I’m glad you garnered some fans before you push them away. So far away…

J.A. Happ – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. Blegh. It’s a VPQS for Happ without the K rate I’ve wanted him to hold. Against the Angels. He’s at #37 right now and I’m starting to think a trip to the 40s is in order.

Dallas Keuchel – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. So this was a DLH situation given how long Keuchel was out for and that the Tigers aren’t pushovers, but it’s nice to have Keuchel back. The bigger story to me is Brad Peacock coming in relief for four frames after…which means Peacock is now out of the rotation. It’s dumb, I hate it, life is stupid. HOWEVER. We have a tendency as fantasy communities to take current situations at face values – take for example opening days rosters. How many rotations in the majors were affected within the first three weeks of the season? I actually don’t know but I’m guessing the majority of them. Sorry to tease you there, but the point is with Collin McHugh possibly being terrible, another injury popping up (ahem, SPOIL’D?), Lance McCullers maybe skipping a start somewhere if the Astros really want to be careful…essentially there’s a very small chance the Astros go two months with the same five guys every five days. You can drop Peacock for now, but be ready to snatch him back up whenever some news hits.

Ariel Miranda – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. What? Wait, seriously, what?! The guy who averaged under four strikeouts per start in his last eight games? That’s it, I quit.

Matt Moore – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. Moore, just stop. Please.

Vance Worley – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. No wonder his name is Vance when he is this cold. I think I get this joke and I don’t want to. 

Jordan Zimmermann – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. This is more boring than sitting through that movie your brief college friend made during his master’s program that is two hours of listening to two people talk in a coffee shop. I know Brian, there is no way this is going to work.

Daniel Gossett – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Womp womp. He’s not the Golden Gosse.

Rick Porcello – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Yep, still Janear Jafar away from trusting Porcello. JaWherever you are…

Alex Wood – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. I can feel you. The quaking in your boots, the tingles on your arm, the uneven breaths. It’s disgusting. I wouldn’t be worried here. After throwing a low amount of Changeups in his last two starts, he bumped up the usage near 28% this time round and was actually doing super well until the seventh, which went…poorly. Four hits and an error led to a trio of ER as we have a Careful, Icarus situation. I will note that this was just the fourth time all year Wood has seen the seventh frame, which may had something to do with this. Either way, I’m not scared at all.

Rafael Montero – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 5 Ks. Y’all weren’t seduced by his…wait…hmmm…what could you have been seduced by? Oh, a 9.05 K/9? But that’s including his time as a reliever! Get it together.

Austin Pruitt – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Hey it’s that guy we were wondering about last year! With Odorizzi on the DL, we were wondering if Brent Honeywell was going to get the chance to start, but nope it’s Chuck Testa Pruitt, who I can actually see having some value at some point this year if he does stick in the rotation for a little bit. He has strikeout upside with his 89-90mph Slider and a Changeup that holds a 20%+ whiff rate and could see more time if he’s starting. I’m not ready to give him the Spice Girl label, but in desperate times, there could be value in a few weeks. Because he gets the Astros, Red Sox, Indians, Mariners next. Yikes.

Derek Holland – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 5 BBs, 0 Ks. The Dutch Invasion continues as they have sent out their demands. More Emoji Movies! They just want to watch the world burn.

Julio Teheran – 4.2 IP, 8 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Hmmm, let me check how Teheran did against the Phillies…BUT THIS WAS ON THE ROAD.

Chris Tillman – 4.1 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. You Can’t Spell Win With Tillman. Seriously, he’s 1-6 in 14 starts this year. Wow.

Today’s Streamer

Sean Newcomb vs. Philadelphia Phillies – I’d also consider his opponent Jerad Eickhoffbut Newcomb has shown that he can bring solid K production when not facing a solid offense.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Luis Castillo vs. Miami Marlins – Alright, I think I’m allowed as some assuredly dropped him after his last start out. If he’s not there I’d go with Vince Velasquez against the Braves, though that comes with some clear risk given Freeman and VV’s lackluster previous outing.

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

Nick Pivetta vs. Atlanta Braves – He has the K upside and doesn’t face a strong offense. Also it’s him or Jharel Cotton coming back from the DL against the Giants and I much prefer this one.

Game of the Day

Trevor Cahill vs. Eduardo Rodriguez – Let’s see how Cahill performs in the AL and if Edu can take a step forward.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

8 responses to “This Will Hurt Suter or Later”

  1. Miles says:

    In your AMA you advised to hold Peacock (of course this was before the game where he was brought in from the pen) but in a deep league do you think he is safe to drop? I’m not desperate for another starter and can afford to hold him for the time being, but is it worth it?

    • Nick Pollack says:

      It always comes down to what you’re dropping for. I have no problem stashing Peacock as long as there isn’t anything else that can help you on the wire. If it’s a deep league with few options, might as well hold and see where the chips land in a week or two.

      Unless the Astros makes a big move for another starter, I have to think Peacock gets another shot in the rotation by the end of the year.

  2. Clint Neff says:

    Nick are you saying you like Pivetta the most on Monday?

  3. Soggy Arm says:

    I need some Ks, length, and perhaps a QS. I know this is disgusting, but who can I gamble on tomorrow– Wrong Clayton vs PIT, Miley @ TEX, Fedde vs Rox, Colon @ OAK? The world we live in…

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