Waiver wire additions are important just about any time of year, or the season rather.
Early-season additions can pay serious dividends and arguably have a higher ceiling than players claimed at other times of the year. Think Garrett Crochet, Jared Jones, and Jurickson Profar this year.
Sometimes it’s also the later-season additions who have the outsized fantasy impact. Think Tanner Scott and, to a degree, Nolan Jones last season.
Either way, adding the right players at the right time can be paramount for a fantasy team’s pennant chances. And even if there aren’t players who’ll suddenly contribute like Crochet, Jones, and Profar have to date this season, or in the way Scott and Jones did in the second half last season, leagues can certainly be won with the right waiver wire adds.
The following three players certainly fit that bill, but they also come with the added bonus of being relatively underrated and under-rostered considering their recent breakout performances.
Add them now and reap the fantasy rewards later.
Blanco has appeared in many a Category Power Rankings this year mainly due to his ability to steal bases at a high rate.
Blanco entered play Wednesday with 22 stolen bases in 71 games and 118 plate appearances, playing a part-time role that often features a lot of pinch-running appearances.
The outfielder has played a bit more regularly as of late, including in a recent series in Cincinnati in which he played in all three games, starting two.
The numbers are fairly significant for a player who entered the year with just one home run.
And while it’s easy to point to the series being in Cincinnati as part of the reason for Blanco’s sudden power surge, it’s worth noting that per Statcast, the 31-year-old’s two home runs on August 17 would’ve been home runs in 16 and 30 ballparks respectively. Also per Statcast, his August 18 home run would’ve left the ballpark in 21 of the league’s 30 ballparks.
In short, the homers weren’t too ballpark-aided.
Furthermore, for a player who has mainly made an impact with stolen bases in his career, Blanco logged a 6.5% barrel rate on 93 batted balls last year and is sporting a 7.4% barrel rate on 81 batted balls this year.
Are they elite barrel rates? Probably not. Are they ideal in a vacuum? Sort of.
But, for a player like Blanco who is an elite stolen base option, even a bit of power production would raise his fantasy ceiling considerably.
Speaking of Blanco’s fantasy ceiling, it’s also being impacted currently by a comparative lack of plate appearances. This season 13 total position players have logged more plate appearances with the Royals than Blanco. In fact, of the 17 position players who’ve appeared in a game for Kansas City so far, just three have fewer plate appearances. Two, Drew Waters and C.J. Alexander, have combined for 27 major league plate appearances, while a third (Paul DeJong) was recently acquired at the trade deadline.
But, the key bit here is that the Royals have been starved for consistent production in the outfield, Blanco’s position.
Entering play Wednesday, the Royals ranked bottom of the league in collective wRC+ from their outfield with a 79 number.
As a whole, Kansas City outfielders have combined to hit .223 with a .286 on-base percentage, a .286 wOBA, a 79 wRC+, and 47 home runs this season. With the exception of home runs, all of those numbers either rank last, second to last, or third to last among Major League outfields. The home run total, it should be noted, is fewer than that of 20 other Major League teams.
In other words, the Royals desperately need better outfield production if they want to stay in the American League Wild Card chase.
If Blanco can start regularly for them and provide even something approaching league-average ISO production, he’ll be a must-add across the board in all fantasy leagues.
Lux enjoyed something of a breakout season in 2022, hitting .276 with a .346 on-base percentage, six home runs, seven stolen bases, an even 10.0% walk rate, a 20.2% strikeout rate, and 66 runs scored, and 42 RBI for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
However, a torn ACL in Spring Training of 2023 sidelined the versatile 26-year-old for the entirety of that season. Back with Los Angeles and its supercharged lineup this year, Lux initially struggled out of the gate.
Even hitting in the Dodgers’ loaded lineup, Lux managed just 26 runs scored and 21 RBI during that span. Among the 182 players with at least 240 plate appearances during that span, 158 scored more runs and 168 drove in more runs.
There wasn’t a lot to support hope for a rebound in Lux’s underlying quality of contact data either outside of a .277 BABIP that was nearly .070 points below the .341 number it was during the 2022 season.
Then the calendar turned to July and Lux’s numbers took off. Of course, a .364 BABIP from July 1 onwards certainly helped, but it seems reasonably sustainable considering what Lux has done from a BABIP standpoint in the past.
Overall, the 26-year-old’s numbers are as follows:
Perhaps most crucially, Lux has been hitting further up the lineup for the Dodgers as of late. He’s hit either third, fourth, or fifth in the Dodgers’ lineup in each of his last 19 appearances, notably hitting fifth the last few days ahead of the likes of Will Smith and Max Muncy.
That’s unsurprisingly led to an uptick in counting stat production. Lux has collected 18 runs scored and 24 RBI since the start of July.
Among position players with at least 140 plate appearances during that span, just 43 have driven in more runs. Of those same group of players, 98 have scored more runs, but the momentum is very clearly trending in the right direction for Lux in a significant way.
Of all three players listed in this column, the Dodgers infielder and outfielder has perhaps the most fantasy upside. If he keeps hitting like this in the middle of Los Angeles’ lineup, Gavin Lux is going to win people some fantasy championships this fall.
Don’t let Bowden Francis‘ season-long numbers fool you (or prevent you from adding him if he’s available via waivers), because the 28-year-old has been excellent as a starter as of late.
Overall, the Blue Jays right-hander has pitched to a 4.38 ERA and a 4.63 FIP in 63.2 innings. Making 21 appearances in total, including seven starts, Francis has struck out 8.20 batters per nine frames while surrendering 2.26 walks and 1.70 homers per nine innings.
However, as a starter, he’s struck out 9.49 batters per nine frames, with just 1.70 walks and 1.95 home runs allowed.
More significantly, Francis has logged a 105 Pitching+ number, per FanGraphs as a starting pitcher.
Among starters with a minimum of 30 innings, just 18 in the league have a better Pitching+ metric, also per FanGraphs. Granted, many of those have significantly higher innings totals, but it’s hard to argue against Francis’ recent success.
Recent success has seen him scatter just six earned runs in his last 20.2 innings as a starter in starts that have come against a variety of competition from challenging lineups (Baltimore twice) to more middle-of-the-pack lineups, production-wise (the Cubs) to lineups who’ve struggled to score runs at times this season (the Angels). The right-hander has also accumulated 24 strikeouts during that span, including at least seven in each of his last three outings.
And more fantasy success could be on the horizon. Francis’ next turn in the rotation will feature a rematch with an Angels team that has scored the sixth-fewest runs in the league (505) and rank sixth-to-last in wRC+ (92).
Looking further ahead, assuming Toronto’s rotation continues as is without any interruptions, Francis will finish the year with a three-start stretch that’ll feature games in Texas against the Rangers, in Tampa Bay versus the Rays, and at home against the Miami Marlins, all teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored. The Rays and Marlins specifically have been particularly low-scoring run-scoring lineups, ranking only above the White Sox in terms of runs scored in the league this season.