Before you look at the massive table below, please note one thing.
These rankings are going to be...okay.
It's not that I didn't spend a ton of time crafting them, they just won't be on the same level of the ones I will be posting at the start of February, as I'll have plenty more time to do individual research. Not to mention rotations being established, trades, free agency signings, hidden injuries, etc. It's going to be different, though this will serve as a foundation for me to build on as I give my full pre-season rankings in a few months.
Nevertheless, check out the notes below as I give a basic outline to my thoughts for approaching this table. I'm looking forward to debating the names here to help refine the list in the late winter.
Let's get to it:
Any idea where you would put Otani if he made his way overseas?
I haven’t much of a clue just yet – I figure there will be much more to work with come February – but let’s throw in a hypothetical ranking of 45/46. It turns into upside central at that point.
If Jimmy’s shoulder was never hurt where would he find himself on this list? Basically, who does his talent compare to?
He’d be easily inside the Top 20.
It’s too bad, though. I worry he won’t return until late in the year and I question if he’ll be the same talent when he pitches again.
That’s too bad, let’s hope for the best. Thanks, Nick.
What’s Clevinger’s upside? Just seems like he could have a #2 upside or more,…
KI think #2 upside is asking too much of his command.
#3/#4 is really what we should hope for and is definitely attainable for 2018.
Nick,
Humor this argument for a second…..
Not sure where I heard or read this, but I remember someone saying hat Clevinger “threw everything “crooked””. For a guy like that, that’s s huge complement….basically saying it’s very hard to square up his pitches. I think he was already showing much better command, but is maintaining his B.B./9 rate due to avoiding throwing meatballs over the plate… put another way, the guy is throwing walks more out of choice now, than due to a lack of command. I don’t know for sure, but I think we just witnessed a true breakout pitcher this year and next year he’ll be the third best SP on Cleveland. I understand his ranking today, but I believe he’ll be 15+ from there by mid-year next year; potentially 20+ by end of next year and no one will be talking about his command, though his B.B./9 will be only negligibly better.
I wouldn’t make the jump to 15+ for Clev, but I do think a spot inside the Top 25 is within his reach…though he shouldn’t be ranked or drafted as such.
There’s still volatility here and while I want to own him next year, it’s hard to ignore his floor as a pitcher who hurts more than helps.
Those are some awfully rose colored glasses. I dont think there is much chance that nobody will be talking about his command. If he shaves off a full walk he will be amongst the worst in the majors among starters. As those walks deteriorate, so will the ks. This will be his third season as a breakout guy now. Its more like a last chance as a starter IMO. It could happen though.
Guys,
What does it tell you when MC has a 4.4 bb/9 and a 10.1 WHIP. To me, it says he’s trading walks for hits, but the WHIP remains very attractive. Couple that with a 10+K/9 and I’d say that’s a very attractive pitcher.
Sorry…11.2 HW/9, but point basically still holds
Question: in American League only, what pitcher(s) do you feel have the highest realistically achievable upside, from where they sit in The rankings today?
I’d say Garrett Richards, though it will come with some limited IP count.
Julio Teheran
Is Waiver Wire Fodder to me and replaceable.
Why do you have Duffy so low
Because he’s not good
Diminished velocity, injury concerns, and not being dominant when he did pitch this year.
Any chance the Brewers give Hader a shot in the rotation or is he looking more like a power arm from the pen? If he makes the rotation, do you think he makes the top 100?
Lance Lynn at 73 are you serious?
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2520&position=P
3.43/4.82/4.75/4.85. That’s Lynn’s ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA. As you can see, the only number that suggests he was a good pitcher is ERA. He allowed his highest HH% since 2012, he stranded a career high 79% of hitters and a .244 BABIP vs a career .297 rate. Strikeouts were down, walks were up, first pitch strike rate was below average, chase rate was below average. Everything screams that he’s more likely to be a near 5 ERA starter than a 3.5 ERA starter.
The only one that suggest he was good is the only on based on reality. The others are estimates. His whip is solid too which is based on reality. Not saying he is great not many on this list are . He deserves a break on his command – it was his first year back from tj.
How is zack godley 15? Just wondering what im missing about the guy.
Godley cost me my playoffs. Guy just didn’t have it late
Cool story bro
I’m hungry
He induces some of the worst contact in the majors with a 26.3% strikeout rate spells path to elite.
Also has a whiff rate above 13% with a 60% F-Strike rate and I think Godley is just going to get better in 2018.
Meanwhile, the names behind him all have their issues as well. I see Godley as having a higher chance of producing that major breakout year.
Do you think Peacock can be this year’s Robbie Ray? Seems like he took off once he was put in the rotation. I can see the hype growing all offseason.
No, he’s going to be 30 with a long track record of injury. Great season but not in ray’s class
Why is Gio Gonzalez so low? Worries about his FIP? Otherwise seems crazy to put a likely top 5 NL Cy Young finisher with a sub 3 ERA and 6.4 bWAR behind pitchers like Carlos Rodón (4.15 ERA, 1.3 bWAR) and Charlie Morton (3.62 ERA, 1.8 bWAR)
Cy young votes and WAR don’t matter much to me for fantasy.
Strikeouts will always be helpful from Gio, but I just don’t believe that he can have another sub 3.50 ERA season again, especially as his walk rate climbed to 9.6%.
He had a lot go his way for that 2.96 ERA – .258 BABIP, 81.6% LOB rate – and I think drafting Gio will be paying for his 2017 career year (i.e. his ceiling) as opposed to infusing the questionable floor he carries.
Any chance Pittsburgh’s Trevor Williams crack into the top 100? He’s a back end of the rotation kind of guy, but is young and showed improvement over his final 6 games of the season.
Not much of a fan of Trevor. He’s never had strikeout upside and a 8.1% walk rate will mean he’s more likely to be waiver wire fodder than have fantasy relevance.
The improvement in those last six games was mostly luck – 6.5% HR/FB, 88.7% LOB rate – and he allowed just 12.9% soft contact with a terrible 10.0% BB rate.
I’d rather chase other arms entering the season.
What about Goharra on the Braves?
He’ll be inside the top 100 come my February rankings. I actually drafted him in the Pitcher List Mock Draft!
Guys that seem overrated: Chase Anderson, Patrick Corbin, Alex Reyes & Matt Strahm.
Looking forward to the FEB update! curious as to where Mikolas ,Ohtani ,land in your list.