Top 5 Starting Pitchers to Target for Fantasy Baseball 2025

I released my massive Top 400 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball 2025 at the end of February (which you should absolutely read if you haven’t already!) and decided to leverage that into some smaller articles relating to guys you could target for specific categories or at certain times in your draft. You can find this article, and other similar ones, in our 2025 Draft Kit.

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Below are 5 Starting Pitchers I am targeting in all of my drafts.

 

1. Spencer Arrighetti (HOU, RHP)

I’m making the “Pasta Pirate” one of my targets once I have 4-5 established starters in my 12-team leagues. Arrighetti has an array of green flags that make him a prime arm to chase out of the gate if his draft cost allows him to be dropped should the worst-case scenario appear.

It starts with an incredibly flat four-seamer (97th percentile HAVAA!) and 7.2 feet of extension (95th percentile!) at 94 mph, which wasn’t spotted particularly well last year, but could benefit greatly from a focus inside to RHB to embrace its exceptional horizontal bend early in counts and thrown upstairs in two-strike counts. At 41% usage last year against RHB, he could dial it back to 25-30% (early for a quick out or as a putaway offering) and rely on the secondaries far more often.

Because hot dang, I like those secondaries. Arrighetti has flexed four different options, three appearing against RHB – a cutter for strikes (76% strikes) and a hook + sweeper for whiffs (18%+ SwStr each). I’m a huge fan of that and hope to see the curveball get a little more action than 14% usage next year. The sweeper takes a backseat against LHB in favor of more curves and a spotty changeup that could get the axe entering this year, with the cutter stealing the show with a blissful 62% STR-ICR rate (league average is 49% on cutters!).

All of that is to say he has a wide array of options merged with whiffs on a winning team that will have him go every five days, giving him a path to a potential 170+ inning season. His horrific 2024 ratios mask a phenomenal run of 14 games to end the year once he got comfortable in the majors, returning a 3.08 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 29% strikeout rate across his final 76 frames. He has all the things you want, the last ingredient is the standard sprinkle of development we normally see in a sophomore year.

Quick Take: Arrighetti has legit strikeout ability and after finding his footing in the majors in the second half, and he has the makings of a proper breakout with regular starts for the Astros. The strikeout explosions may be less frequent without the 30%+ putaway rate on his curve, but the full arsenal suggests production even if it comes with fewer strikeouts.

 

2. Justin Steele (CHC, LHP)

It would be in your best interest to not take Steele’s 2024 campaign at face value. After pulling his hamstring on opening day, Steele struggled to find a rhythm upon his return in May, while his September was disrupted by elbow soreness. The stretch of “I’m actually starting every five days and normal” was phenomenal. Steele’s four-month stretch between May 27th and August 27th returned a 2.45 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 26% K rate, and 7% BB rate across 102.2 IP and 17 starts. That’s a stud. The coolest stat? He had a 32% ICR across all his pitches in that time.

That last stat is Steele’s greatest skill – he’s stupid hard to barrel up. It may seem strange given a “two-pitch mix” of four-seamer and slider, but that masks the truth: Steele constantly manipulates his four-seamer and slider in at-bats to keep batters guessing.

His heater is more of a cutter that can straighten out at times when he wants to elevate. Its cut action has proper drop and glove-side movement, but with two strikes, Steele flattens the pitch upstairs and efficiently converts strikeouts with his fastball at an excellent 24% putaway rate. You love to see it.

The slider can be loopy or a bit tighter, shifting its vertical and horizontal bend at will. It helped Steele earn a 25% ICR with the pitch against RHB – a ridiculous feat against opposite-handed batters – while he features the traditional lefty-on-lefty breaker to cruise against LHB.

With his ability to generate low ICR marks and reliably sit above a 23% strikeout rate, Steele is a quintessential Holly who makes you feel great drafting as your SP #3, if not your SP #2. I suspect his elbow soreness of September (he missed only a few games) may allow him to fall further than his peers and I’d take advantage.

Quick Take: I see a reliable workhorse starter for the year ahead who has figured out how to earn strikes confidently since his struggles in 2022. His 1.20+ WHIP has become a relic of the past while he flirts with a 25% strikeout rate and can find the sixth constantly for a high Win chance. What’s not to like?

 

3. Robbie Ray (SFG, LHP)

I’m a bit shocked to say it, but I really like the bed and breakfast for next year. Give me all of that R&R! I was initially hesitant for obvious reasons – his volatility rooted in questionable control of his breakers that lead to his high iVB, but poor HAVAA and extension, heater to get tagged more often than we’d like. However, the slider has routinely been a 20% SwStr pitch against both RHB and LHB and his small sample last year suggests more of the same in the year ahead. His situation in San Francisco is great – a good park to pitch in with an above-average defense and a long leash to push 100 pitches each outing – and another 30% strikeout rate season with volume tells me 200 strikeouts are ahead now that he’s in his TJS honeymoon period (just don’t strain your hammy again, alright?).

I’m also encouraged that his fastball sat 94+ mph consistently in all seven starts last year and was spotted well. When we’ve seen high walk rates from Ray in the past, it often came with a scatterplot of heaters, but this small sample saw great fastball locations and a few blips of slider or curveball command. We didn’t even get the sinker returning from his days with the Mariners and you should bet the pitch returns if he needs to make an adjustment during the season.

I wrestled with where to place Ray on the ranks – is he a Cherry Bomb or a Holly? – and I’ve settled that 1) You are not going to drop Ray 2) He will be a strikeout machine 3) He has a longer leash than the younger Cherry Bomb types. That puts him inside the top Cherry Bomb category as I don’t truly believe he’ll eradicate the ER blowups for the full year. And that’s fine, we all could use another Joe Ryan on our squads.

Quick Take: He’ll be going every five days with a long leash for the Giants and is one of the few arms poised for a 200+ strikeout season. His heater command at 94+ mph is a good sign for better consistency in 2025 in a solid team environment, though there will surely be a sprinkle of difficult stretches along the way.

 

4. Sandy Alcantara (MIA, RHP)

Yes, I still have a Sandy Crush and so should you. I gave my shirt to my partner. Smart. That blue will look great on them. The drop in quality from 2022 to 2023 merged with the unknown post-TJS has many hesitant to draft Sandy, and it makes sense. A fall to a 20% strikeout rate across 185 IP in 2023 (not even a full season, if you can believe it) doesn’t scream AGA material, while we can’t expect Sandy to express his signature elite volume in 2025 given his time away from the game at age 29 (Typically we consider 150 IP the cap post-TJS, save for Justin Verlander, but that was an exceptional case of a veteran arm having nothing to lose.).

I didn’t scrutinize Alcantara’s regression heavily this time last year given the heavy likelihood of missing the full season and it’s time we gave it an honest look. The quick answer is simple: His sinker jumped in ICR to RHB, his changeup was more hittable to LHB, and both the slowball and slider were terrible in two-strike counts, dropping to paltry 16% putaway rates against LHB and RHB.

I can’t continue without mention the Marlins infield defense. The dirt was filled with fantastic defenders in 2022, returning the second best OAA at +18 as a team, allowing Alcantara’s 55% groundball rate to convert into easy tosses to first constantly. However, 2023 came with a -24 OAA (27th in MLB), which can explain some of the +2 hits allowed per nine innings from 2022 to 2023 (6.8 to 8.6. Yikes.). What about last year? Did it get better? Uhhh, nah. -28 OAA in 2024 (28th in MLB) and it may be more of the same in 2025.

With that in mind, Alcantara did regress in some areas, too. His sinker didn’t jam RHB as often, allowing for its massive 20% –> 35% ICR jump, though a 20% clip is generally unheard of and never holds for a second season. Failure with his changeup and slider in two-strike counts also led to more hits. After all, instead of strikeouts, at-bats extended and led to more balls in play.

The good news? Sandy’s stuff was the same. Still high velocity with the same pitch shapes across the board and the report in September was he had already hit 99 mph in a bullpen session. It grants the possibility of recovery via converting his two-strike pitches and improving sinker locations, though the lack of expected volume merged with a questionable Marlins defense (Otto Lopez is elite, but Connor Norby and Xavier Edwards are not good defenders) makes me question chasing Sandy at a high price. What may happen is a heavy limitation in April before either getting dealt or getting the green light by May, but at the very least, I highly doubt you’ll get poor production from Alcantara when he does get the pearl.

In addition, the Marlins are highly likely to trade Alcantara to a contender, removing those defensive concerns and his low Win ceiling. With all the choas of performance in April (it’s the least sticky month for season long production), give me the questionable performance early and stud SP for the final five months.

Quick Take: The Marlins defense and lack of regular volume due to TJS recovery removes Alcantara from his 2022 ceiling. However, changes to his sinker location merged with potential improvements in changeup & slider efficiency in two-strike counts could make for SP #2 production when starting regularly.

 

5. Joe Ryan (MIN, RHP)

Joe throws a whole lot of strikes and it sets him up for a monster season…if he can find one more definitive offering inside his arsenal. Ryan’s four-seamer has the flattest attack angle in baseball, which has him attack the top of the zone constantly, though its low iVB makes this is large risk/reward. When batters are able to get the timing just right, they can launch the pitch over the fence, leading to an elevated HR/9 for Ryan across the last few years. That mark did come down last year with Ryan showcasing another gain in velocity up to 94 mph and four extra inches of extension to 6.8 feet (i.e. meh extension to above-average extension. DOPE.), which lowered the longball count from nineteen to eight off the four-seamer. Progress.

I should note that Ryan’s 2024 season concluded early after suffering a Grade 2 Teres Major strain, though it’s not an injury that should linger into the season. That shouldn’t be your concern entering the season – that should come from his secondaries. Ryan has little fear throwing heaters upstairs at a 71% strike rate – the catalyst for his minuscule walk rate – and it calls for a reliable secondary to prevent batters from hunting heaters upstairs with every pitch. There is a sinker Ryan began incorporating more to RHB in early June that I adore and hope to see again in 2025, but there needs to be more.

The attack against RHB features a sweeper 20% of the time and I’m not sure it’s the correct call. Ryan’s four-seamer holds a 46% ICR against RHB and just a 33% clip against LHB, and I believe this sweeper is the culprit. Ryan’s arm-angle gets lower when featuring the pitch, allowing batters to key in on the sweeper and confidently attack four-seamers with the higher arm slot. Maybe it’s worth it given the near 20% SwStr rate and decent 35% ICR at 20% usage, though I have to believe a tighter slider would do better at the same arm slot.

…which Ryan has? Kinda. He featured a slider against RHB just 8% of the time last year to middling results. It earned strikes but had very little drop and looked like a cement mixer breaker often, leading to a 55% ICR and a .508 xWOBA against (I’m usually pounding the table to stop using result stats for individual pitches, but hot dang, I couldn’t ignore that). Ryan tried to sneak it in for an early called strike (24% called strikes!) against both LHB and RHB, and it’s not the answer we’re looking for. Something a little more…aggressive? Dangerous? Deadly.

Speaking of LHB, the splitter is the go-to #2 pitch, and if you know me at all, I dislike splitters as a #2 option. They are the least consistent pitch in baseball, creating volatility start-to-start. Ryan’s splitter was more effective than his contemporaries at earning strikes, while it acted as a better nullifer for his four-seamer to LHB than his sweeper to RHB. Still, it’s not an elite companion for the fastball and I’m still holding my breath for Ryan to find that pitch to create a one-two punch.

If you’re so down on Ryan, why is he ranked so high? Because despite all of this, he’s excellent at hit suppression due to his large flyball rate merged with a near 80th percentile SwStr rate. Ryan’s 0.99 WHIP isn’t a total fluke with 2023’s 1.17 mark due to an inflated 8.6 hit-per-nine that has fallen to a repeatable 7.3 H/9, and in concert with his elite walk rate, Ryan is sure to have a sparkling WHIP once again. If he makes any adjustment with his pitch mix to improve his #2 offerings to both LHB and RHB, Ryan could turn into a Top 5 arm overnight. The floor is there with the four-seamer (and maybe even more growth given its gains each year?) making Ryan a great target for production and legit upside.

Quick Take: Ignore the injury from 2024 and focus on Ryan’s ability to limit walks while punch batters out over 25% of the time due to his elite four-seamer he spots upstairs. Growth in his secondaries are the final step toward an ERA consistently below 3.50 moving forward with a WHIP and strikeout floor that makes him far less risky than other ceiling starters.