Welcome to another edition of the 2024 two-start pitcher rankings!
My rankings have four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set and Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely Start tier includes players with the mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two-start SPs who should remain on your bench or the wire.
Each week, I’ll be selecting my Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in the tables in green. Reach out to me in the PL+ Discord or on Twitter @AnthonyTucker81 and let me know if you’d grade the weekly streamer as a win or loss.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections and subject to change.
Set and Forget
- Through two starts, Zack Wheeler and Zac Gallen have each displayed lower fastball velocity than a year ago. Gallen may have the misfortune of a trip to Colorado, but he owns a sparkling 2.43 ERA in 37 IP at Coors Field and is poised to continue feasting on a weak Rockies lineup. Until we see otherwise, they’re both fixtures atop your fantasy lineup as aces.
- The same goes for Luis Castillo, who has opened the year with a pair of losses. Castillo is notorious for starting out slow, but no reason to overthink it.
- Blake Snell, the reigning Cy Young winner, will introduce himself to the Giants faithful against the Nats this Monday. He should be good for 80+ pitches, which is more than enough to add him to your lineup. In his return to Tampa Bay, where he won his first Cy Young, he should be built up for a full workload.
Most Likely
- Jesús Luzardo and Yu Darvish each have the potential to dominate on any given night but don’t have the consistency of those in Tier 1. They each have a weekend start against the two best lineups in baseball. You might choose to bench them in daily leagues for their second start, but in daily leagues, they’re easy choices to lock in.
- Reese Olson is this week’s Two-Start Streamer of the Week. Amongst streaming options owned in 50% or less of Yahoo leagues, Olson boasts the safest floor against two lineups that appear to be average at best. He may have only earned three strikeouts in his season debut, but if he earns more whiffs with his slider, he should be much closer to the 24% strikeout rate from last season.
Questionable
- In the questionable tier are a quartet of pitchers who are clear starts in 12-teamers in one matchup and a potential bench in their second. In weekly leagues, Mitch Keller and James Paxton make the most sense to trust, while Louie Varland (@DET) and Andrew Heaney (vs OAK) are only one-start streams.
- Graham Ashcraft featured his sinker in his season debut, a big shift from using it less than 10% of the time in 2023. It’s too early to tell if this approach will stick and we’ve seen Ashcraft show glimpses of success before, but he may be worth a cheap speculative add in 15-teamers.
- Few are likely buying into Spencer Turnbull’s impressive debut as a member of the Phillies rotation. For those in 15-teamers who have lost one of a myriad of pitchers to injury already, he might be a sneaky play for volume. The Cardinals and Pirates look to be merely average lineups and he’ll have the benefit of pitching behind one of the National League’s strongest supporting casts.
Avoid
- Miles Mikolas might be one of the league’s dependable innings eaters, but with a 16% strikeout rate in 2023, it doesn’t translate to fantasy relevance.
- Javier Assad excelled in his first outing, but it was likely more the result of facing the Rockies than a sign of things to come. No need to chase last week’s box score, Assad should stick on the waiver wire for now.
Two-Start Streamer of the Week Record: 1-0. Is Tanner Houck a publicly traded company? He filed a 10-K against Oakland earlier this week (please excuse my poor attempt at a corporate finance joke). Regardless of his second start against the Angels, the first start is enough to move week one’s streamer into the win column.
Think Reynaldo Lopez is lined up for two and Bieber is out.