Hello and welcome back to using PLA to evaluate pitchers! This series uses PLA, along with other run expectancy metrics, to break down results and better understand the process behind them.
This week, I will be taking a look at a few starters recently announced to be first-time all-stars in 2026. For some more details on PLA and what goes into PLV scores, be sure to check out Nick Pollack and Kyle Bland’s breakdown here.
Max Meyer
Max Meyer has had a breakout 2026 season, comfortably leading an underpowered Marlins rotation supporting one of the league’s most exciting offenses in June. The former top prospect and third overall draft pick has developed a ridiculously strong pair of breaking balls to supplement an otherwise decent arsenal, earning his first career All-Star Game appearance as one of the National League’s premier starters.
Meyer’s sweeper and slider average 88.9 and 90.2 mph, respectively, with both roughly ~4 mph harder than average for RHP. The real advantage, however, comes from their shape, as both pitches generate negative iVB, creating elite separation from a high carry four-seam to secure both whiffs and ground balls. His consistent command of the two pitches at the bottom of the zone has been key to their success as well.
In creating more separation from his fastballs, multiple breaking ball shapes at high velocity, and a league-average walk rate, Meyer has effectively taken the next step in the Majors and established himself as a frontline starter. While his prospect pedigree of upper-90s velocity may not have been suitable long-term, Meyer’s current profile has just seen that elite velocity transfer to his breaking balls, all while maintaining a strong shape on both pitches while locating most of his arsenal effectively.
This is reflected in Meyer’s above-average 2.78 PLA, roughly in line with ERA estimators like xFIP (3.69) and SIERA (3.70). While these are a little above his current ERA of 2.53, helped by a 9.8% home run to fly ball rate and 80.4% strand rate both easily being career bests, he would still be quite effective with median results.
Regardless, Meyer has proven to be an effective starter in 2026 despite using fastballs just 35% of the time and struggles backing his elite prospect status in the past. Look for Meyer to sustain plus results post-ASB and finish his breakout season strong in 2026.
Chase Burns
Chase Burns has had an impressive 2026, proving his flashes of elite production in 2025 to be the real deal by sustaining elite velocity and enough strike throwing to manage 17 starts in 97.2 innings with a 2.40 ERA. Despite basically being a two-pitch starter, Burns has consistently generated chases and swing-and-miss thanks to elite stuff and consistency, allowing more than two runs just twice and never going less than 5 innings in a start so far.
Burns’ four-seam thrives thanks to averaging 97.8 mph and 18.8 inches of iVB with about league-average extension. This amount of carry creates elite separation from a 90.6 mph slider, averaging 0.7 inches of iVB with a 52.8% whiff rate. Despite just a 44.2% zone rate, Burns generates an elite 34.8% chase rate, thanks to their complementary shapes.
The 22.7 inch difference in drop between his two primary pitches creates a stark location disparity for hitters, despite just a 7 mph difference between the two. Burns’ changeup also has a decent shape at 90 mph on average, but has been hit around in a limited sample. Burns has also thrown a curveball in the past, but neither secondary pitch has boasted such elite characteristics as his four-seam/slider pairing.
This profile has given Burns one of the league’s most valuable breaking pitches in his nasty bullet slider and fastballs in his high carry four-seam. As evidenced by his elite 2.54 PLA and well-above-average ERA peripherals, his success has been largely sustainable. Still, his 89.6% strand rate suggests some more runners would be likely to score in a larger sample. Even so, Burns has proved capable of limiting walks and generating whiffs despite a limited arsenal, and looks to continue proving his status as an elite young starter with his first career all-star game appearance in 2026.
Dylan Cease
Cease’s four-seam/slider pairing is strikingly similar to Burns’. Cease’s slider is a tick slower and drops a couple inches less, however, and he supplements the two with an expansive north-west arsenal capable of limiting hard contact and inducing a ridiculous amount of whiffs. While his sinker and changeup grade out poorly by PLV, both have induced elite results in 2026 thanks to some unique characteristics.
- CH – 13.9 mph slower than FF, 3 inch difference in iVB – massive velocity discrepancy despite similar movement, 60% whiff rate, exclusive to LHB
- SI – 12.7 mph faster than CH, runs 3 more inches/2 inches less iVB – moves away from FF more than CH at similar velocity, 28.7 CSW%/.088 BAA, mostly used against RHB
These two pitches represents a common philosophy for developing off-speed pitches with an elite four-seam fastball. Cease’s changeup shares similar movement to his four-seam with a major difference in velocity, creating whiffs through a difference in timing. His sinker creates different movement at a similar velocity, generating strikes and weak batted balls while creating a different fastball shape from his four-seam. Both give hitters more secondaries to look for in addition to his trio of breaking balls, which boast impressive movement at above-average velocity.
This arsenal gives Cease a somewhat volatile arsenal of elite pitches capable of dominating any given lineup. Despite a 3.42 PLA, hurt by his SI/CH’s unorthodox shapes, ERA estimators like xFIP (2.61) and SIERA (2.96) pin him as elite and capable of sustaining his ace-like results thus far. Freshly off signing a historical deal with the Blue Jays, Cease will look to continue blossoming as one of the American League’s premier starters down the stretch in 2026.
