Hello and welcome to week four of using PLA to evaluate pitchers! This series uses PLA, along with other run expectancy metrics, to break down results and better understand the process behind them.
This week, I will be taking a look at another three starters flashing their potential for a breakout thus far in 2026. For some more details on PLA and what goes into PLV scores, be sure to check out Nick Pollack and Kyle Bland’s breakdown here.
Davis Martin has had a strong start to his 2026 season, averaging ~6 IP/start with an easily career-best 16.1% K-BB rate. This is despite a career-worst 51.2% hard-hit rate and 39.3% ground-ball rate, two trends not generally conducive to improved results.
Martin’s biggest strength has always been a deep arsenal, firing six different pitch shapes in 2026 with average velocity. Martin’s underwhelming fastball shapes are mainly complemented by a strong changeup and cutter by PLV. While his changeup has been effective, it has been hit very hard and has only returned an 11.8% whiff rate. Hitters have also hit .471 with a .824 SLG against his cutter.
Otherwise, his bullet slider has carried him against righties (35% usage, 57.1% whiff rate) while a deeper mix against lefties has limited damage (.229 AVG/.400 SLG). Martin’s 4.65 xERA and 3.79 SIERA are also far higher than his 2.01 ERA, suggesting his career-best 6.7% HR/FB rate and 86.1% LOB rate are warning signs of regression.
Still, Martin is doing a lot more right this season than in the past. He’s walking fewer batters, striking out more, and using his bevy of breaking balls more effectively than ever, leading to a career-best 3.02 PLA. Look for Martin to sustain his earned run prevention against weaker offenses while anchoring an exciting White Sox rotation throughout the rest of 2026.
After a strong six-game sample in 2024 (1.17 ERA/3.10 FIP), Rhett Lowder has returned to the Majors in 2026 with another strong six-start stretch. After opening 2025 on the injured list with a right forearm strain, Lowder missed nearly the entire season after sustaining a severe left oblique strain, but finished the year healthy in preparation for a healthy offseason.
Lowder’s unique pitch mix has been perplexing for stuff models, averaging just an 85 Stuff+ by Eno Sarris’s model, yet earns a 110 Location+ this season. PLV recognizes Lowder’s command and execution as a strength, with an average PLV of 5.11 in 2026 being a step up from 4.93 in 2024.
Lowder’s filthy changeup has been the key piece of his arsenal, helping shut down lefties (.216 AVG/.338 SLG) while his sinker/slider leads against righties (.250 AVG/.286 SLG). Despite underwhelming strikeout numbers, Lowder’s funky release and premier command have induced great results thus far.
Lowder’s 2.89 PLA is far better than most other run estimators. Lowder’s higher numbers, like a 4.44 SIERA and 4.32 xFIP, reflect his 2.4% HR/FB rate and 10.7% K-BB rate; both underwhelming and warning signs of an ERA increase.
Still, I believe Lowder’s pitchability and strong command could give him a way to work around trouble generating strikeouts by inducing chases and avoiding barrels when possible. Similar to Martin, I would avoid starting Lowder against stronger offenses, especially in home starts, but his upside remains as one of the game’s more exciting young starters.
Note – does not include 4/27 start vs. Cubs – 5.0 IP 5 ER 3 BB 4 SO – good offense, high scoring on both sides. Regression!
Randy Vásquez has been off to a great start in 2026, firing five starts with improved velocity, solid command, and a vast seven-pitch arsenal, all of which have been used at least 5% of the time.
Vasquez has mostly gone four-seam/cutter/sinker/slider against righties, an approach generating a .214 AVG/.357 SLG while limiting walks (4.3% walk rate) and avoiding too much hard contact. His approach against lefties has actually induced better results (.230 AVG/.311 SLG, 29.4% strikeout rate), mixing all seven pitches while leading with his four-seam and changeup. Despite a very poor 4.50 PLV on his changeup, hitters are running a 45% whiff rate (just 26% zone rate) and a decent .310 xwOBA against the pitch.
This has culminated in a 4.14 PLA, the weakest of any breakout starter we’ve looked at so far. Still, other run estimators like xFIP (3.54) and SIERA (3.42) have him as above average, thanks to his strong 19.3% K-BB rate and career-best 43.2% ground ball rate. Still, like Lowder and Martin, a 3.4% HR/FB rate and 85.4% left-on-base rate are both warning signs for regression.
Vasquez has made strides with his arsenal in 2026 and looks to follow up on a solid 2025 season by striking out more batters and limiting walks. Look for Vasquez to sustain these trends while limiting damage throughout the rest of the 2026 season.
