Hello and welcome to Pitcher List’s latest series: Using PLA to Evaluate Pitchers! Every week, I will examine various pitchers and break them down using PLA. There will be various themes and topics each week, which will range from topics such as waiver wire picks, to buy or sell, to awards races, to lefties/righties only, etc. I hope to mix it up as much as possible to keep you all on your toes.
Now, you might be asking, what is PLA?
PLA is an ERA estimator that was created in tandem with Pitch Level Value, which we refer to as PLV. PLV is essentially an all-encompassing stat that measures individual pitches and rates them on a 0-10 scale. The elements that factor into PLV include velocity, movement, release point, location, count, and handedness of batter. We have an excellent primer on this by the one and only Nick Pollack that you can find right here! PLA takes this 0-10 score and translates it to an estimated ERA, which makes it easier to understand and more useful for those looking for help with their fantasy teams.
It’s important to note that PLA isn’t necessarily a catch-all estimator, just as xERA, FIP, SIERA, and pCRA aren’t either. These stats ultimately still measure outcomes, which are largely dependent on how a player is executing that day. ERA estimators are not crystal balls, however, they can provide some insight if taken with a grain of salt. For the purpose of this series, we are going to use PLA as the main factor to evaluate pitchers (hence the series title), but again, no stat is perfect, especially in the complex world of pitching.
Also, stay tuned for other PLV evaluation article series, such as one that will look at individual pitches and another that will use Process+ to evaluate hitters!
This week, I’ve decided to look at some pitchers who have joined new teams this year, whether via trade, promotion, or free agency. I have avoided a few guys whom I have spoken about in this series recently, though in the coming weeks, we will start returning to some of these players to see if their recent performances matched up with what we projected.
Garrett Crochet – 3.22 PLA
Garrett Crochet is probably the best pitcher we’ve featured on here. He’s a true inner circle ace, and that’s something you can say even after he allows five runs in a rivalry game against the Yankees. He is also a guy who joined a new team and really got a new role, as he is now the workhorse for the Red Sox as opposed to the excellent but limited “opener’ he became at the end of his White Sox tenure.
ERA estimators and ERA itself LOVE Crochet. And what’s not to love? He strikes out tons of batters, doesn’t give out free passes regularly, and suppresses contact well. If you check his Savant page, it’s bright red, as he does everything really well. He’d be viewed as a strong contender for the AL Cy Young and the game’s best lefty if it weren’t for Tarik Skubal justifiably hogging all the spotlight.
Crochet is a bit of a different pitcher than last year, for better or for worse. He’s lost some of the velocity and extension on his four-seamer, which made it a premium offering. Now, PLA grades the pitch as a pretty average fastball, though you can probably trust your gut and say it’s still somewhat above average in actuality. The cutter is the addition that made Crochet a no-doubt ace, and PLV seems to agree, as it grades out as the best pitch in his arsenal, which isn’t a bad thing for a pitch he throws nearly 30% of the time. The sweeper and sinker are essentially new additions to Crochet’s arsenal, and both have seen success. PLV definitely prefers the sweeper, and the real-life whiff numbers seem to back this up, as the pitch gets a LOT of swings and misses.
Crochet is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and while PLV might have him below some other pitchers (including ones on this list), that doesn’t mean that he’s not a top 5 guy in actuality. Just imagine if he had his 7 feet of extension back…
Tomoyuki Sugano – 2.73 PLA
Well, this is an interesting one!
It’s hard to view Tomoyuki Sugano as much more than a Toby type who will eat innings and start good matchups for your fantasy teams. Nothing about him really stands out on paper, and even when watching him, it’s unlikely that you’ll be blown away. Yet despite some of the other estimators not loving Sugano, he is a PLV darling, which is exemplified by his PLA.
Like plenty of other pitchers who come over from Japan, Sugano has a great splitter. It’s his most-used pitch, though he balances his arsenal pretty well. He also has a sweeper for strikes that PLV loves, as he can use the pitch to put away righties with ease. His four-seamer is nothing special stuff-wise, but he locates it up in the zone at a well-above-average clip, which leads to PLA approving of the pitch as well. He closes out his arsenal with a cutter, sinker, and curveball, which all have solid PLV marks, with the curve (used 11% of the time), in particular being a standout offering.
So is Sugano legit? Well, depends on your definition. If he put up a full season with an ERA matching his PLA, he’d probably finish around 8th in the Cy Young voting. Definitely not a bad place to be. He won’t rack up the strikeouts as there isn’t a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, but you can tell that, despite this being his first MLB season, he’s a real veteran on the mound. He’s not going to be prone to the blowup starts of other guys because that command is so solid.
Ryan Yarbrough – 2.93 PLA
Ouch, his blowup the other day against the Red Sox was a big ouch. It also probably wasn’t too unpredictable for a lot of people, as Ryan Yarbrough unfortunately is prone to outings like that.
Still, there is plenty of reason to be positive about Yarbrough. His PLA is incredible, as it projects him to be a sub-3 ERA pitcher. Sure, his other estimators aren’t quite as kind, but xERA projects a similar end-of-season outcome.
Yarbrough throws some of the slowest fastballs of any pitcher, and his arsenal features three different types of heaters. He commands these pretty well, though, as on his good days, he’s an expert at dotting the outside corners. The key for Yarbrough this year has been the sweeper. Like the rest of his arsenal, this is a SLOW pitch. But it’s one with plenty of break. He’s been able to dominate left-handed hitters with this pitch, as he dots it on the outside corner at the tune of a 34.4% CSW versus southpaws. This excellent pitch has been the key to Yarbrough’s PLA being so low, which perhaps many of you probably wouldn’t have expected.
So, is Yarbrough really a 2.93 ERA guy like PLA projects? Probably not, but maybe don’t give up on him yet after one brutal start in a rivalry game that often claims the ERAs of more trusted pitchers. PLA likes Yarbs, and thus, we like Yarbs.
Chase Dollander – 4.75 PLA
Young starters are always difficult to evaluate, especially ones who have poor basic numbers but were highly touted. Chase Dollander is an example of this. He was a top pick for the Rockies, but has immediately struggled out of the gate, and many wonder whether Dollander really is pitching as poorly as the basic numbers say.
Unfortunately, PLA is out on Dollander, though less so than some of the other estimators. It all stems from the fact that he doesn’t have much in terms of an arsenal. His fastball has ridiculous velocity, and thus, he throws it 54% of the time. However, this raw speed is hampered by the fact that he has poor extension, which eliminates the advantage of throwing 98mph. He also struggles with commanding the pitch, which certainly doesn’t help his PLV.
Dollander is especially lacking in the secondary department. He really doesn’t have much to fall back on after the fastball. He has a slow curve, which is limited in its effectiveness, a cutter that has a sub-50 strike rate, and a changeup that has an even worse rate.
Dollander is an exciting, flashy player who, even when off, definitely provides spice to a team that is really struggling. But the poor arsenal, combined with the worst imaginable situation for a pitcher (rookie + Coors + no win chance), makes him one to avoid, unfortunately.
Justin Verlander – 3.63 PLA
So it is of note that Justin Verlander is on the IL, so if you haven’t heard much from him lately, that’s why. It’s still incredibly impressive that he’s still pitching, as he’s been one of the game’s best hurlers for such a long time now. He clearly isn’t who he used to be, though, and the estimators show that. So, is he worth holding on to?
Verlander is still driven by his four-seam fastball. At its peak, you can probably say it was one of the best fastballs in the history of the game. Verlander pumped that thing triple digits more than any other pitcher of his era. Now, it’s honestly still an incredibly respectable mark of 94mph, to go along with elite vertical movement. It’s an over-the-top fastball and thus doesn’t have that flat attack angle, but it’s still an effective pitch. PLV places this fastball as being slightly below average, though it’s certainly not awful by any means.
Verlander’s slider is still just as effective as ever, according to PLV, and he’s also found some success with a sweeper, though he rarely throws it. The curveball and changeup have brutal underlying metrics, though again, they combine for only 20% of the pitches that Verlander throws.
Verlander clearly isn’t the guy he used to be, though it’s impressive that he’s still pitching well enough to hold a rotation spot. The 3.63 PLA feels about right for Verlander, so if that improves your rotation, ride it out.
Yusei Kikuchi – 3.38 PLA
