Hello and welcome to Pitcher List’s latest series: Using PLA to Evaluate Pitchers! Every week, I will examine various pitchers and break them down using PLA. There will be various themes and topics each week, which will range from topics such as waiver wire picks, to buy or sell, to awards races, to lefties/righties only, etc. I hope to mix it up as much as possible to keep you all on your toes.
Now, you might be asking, what is PLA?
PLA is an ERA estimator that was created in tandem with Pitch Level Value, which we refer to as PLV. PLV is essentially an all-encompassing stat that measures individual pitches and rates them on a 0-10 scale. The elements that factor into PLV include velocity, movement, release point, location, count, and handedness of the batter. We have an excellent primer on this by the one and only Nick Pollack that you can find right here! PLA takes this 0-10 score and translates it to an estimated ERA, which makes it easier to understand and more useful for those looking for help with their fantasy teams.
It’s important to note that PLA isn’t necessarily a catch-all estimator, just as xERA, FIP, SIERA, and pCRA aren’t either. These stats ultimately still measure outcomes, which are largely dependent on how a player is executing that day. ERA estimators are not crystal balls; however, they can provide some insight if taken with a grain of salt. For the purpose of this series, we are going to use PLA as the main factor to evaluate pitchers (hence the series title), but again, no stat is perfect, especially in the complex world of pitching.
Also, stay tuned for other PLV evaluation article series, such as one that will look at individual pitches and another that will use Process+ to evaluate hitters!
Happy All-Star break everybody! I thought it would be fun to break down a few All-Star selections, including the starters. Since some of these players have been covered in this series a couple of times, I am going to try to cover some that I haven’t spoken about often, other than Skubal who of course is a starter.
Tarik Skubal – 3.10 PLA
Tarik Skubal absolutely deserves to be the All-Star starter this year. That’s the article.
But seriously, Skubal is on an incredible run, which is looking pretty comparable to that of some of the legends of the game. He’s untouchable, with an incredible arsenal and a knack for throwing strikes.
The key to his success is the changeup, and as we have mentioned before, it actually doesn’t grade out too spectacularly, though noticeably better than it did last time we spoke about it. His combination of a sinker and four-seamer does wonders for him, with both grading out about the same in terms of PLV and PLA. While he doesn’t go to the breakers often (a combined 15% usage between the slider and the curve), they are both solid offerings, especially the slider, which grades out above-average.
Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball right now and PLA showcases that this is sustainable. His combination of stuff and command is rare, and nearly every stat will show that he’s simply the best. He deserves this All-Star nod and as I said before, absolutely should be the starter.
Paul Skenes – 3.23 PLA
It’s pretty impressive to be the All-Star starter in back-to-back seasons to start your career. Then again, Skenes’ middle name is Impressive.
Actually, it’s David. But Skenes has been incredible in all facets early on.
We all know the famous four-seamer that Skenes has. It’s one of the fastest among starters and it makes highlight reels all the time to this day. Yeah, it might have lost a bit of its lustre due to someone else we will speak of in a bit, but it’s an incredible pitch that gets eyes on screens.
Perhaps the best pitch Skenes has (and maybe the best in baseball) is his splitter, often known as the splinker. This pitch has one of the best PLV grades you’ll ever see, and it makes sense why. It hasn’t quite had the excellent results it did last season, but it grades out incredibly well.
Skenes rounds out his arsenal with a great sweeper, a good sinker, a good changeup, a solid slider and a good curveball. That is a lot of solid pitches to have in an arsenal, and this is the key to Skenes’ success. While he is known as an overpowering pitcher who makes a lot of highlight reels, he’s honestly more similar to the guys who have deep arsenals and are crafty with them. Skenes knows how to use his pitches, get strikes with them and end an at-bat with an out.
So yeah, Skenes is the All-Star starter again for the National League, and like Skubal, it’s 100% deserved.
Zack Wheeler – 2.99 PLA
There is one guy who might’ve deserved the start over Skenes. Mayyyyybe. And we all know who that is.
Zack Wheeler is doing it AGAIN. How many times are we going to have to watch him put up incredible season after incredible season and not win the Cy Young?
Wheeler’s incredible PLA starts with the four-seam fastball. This might be the most important pitch for any elite starter in the game. This fastball is incredible. It has excellent velocity combined with elite extension, which makes it seem even faster than it is. Combine that with a flat attack angle and an excellent ability to locate the pitch high in the zone and yeah, it might be the best fastball in the game.
The four-seamer isn’t Wheeler’s only great fastball though, as he has a sinker and cutter that both grade out well per PLV. He rounds out the arsenal with a sweeper and curveball, with the sweeper in particular being a key pitch for him as his most used (and highest graded breaker).
I think that for the All-Star game, it makes sense that Skenes is the pick as he been a great marketing tool for the game. But if you look at what Wheeler’s doing with the arsenal he has, I think you can conclude that he is the better pitcher as of now and is more likely to have a better second half of the season.
Jacob Misiorowski – 2.74 PLA
Okay, let’s get the controversy out of the way.
Many fans were notably upset that Jacob Misiorowski made the All-Star game this year after only a few starts. I understand it, I get it. There are pitchers who have had better seasons that won’t be recognized and that’s incredibly unfortunate.
However, as fans, shouldn’t we want someone as exciting as Misiorowski pitching?
Misiorowski already has what many view as one of the best fastballs they’ve ever seen. It’s an elite, elite, ELITE combination of velocity, extension and attack angle, which makes it such a whiff-worthy offering. Notably, the PLV on the pitch might not be as high as you’d expect. Why? Probably because he still doesn’t have the best command of it yet. He’s been known for control struggles, and while he’s improved in that area, these struggles occasionally flare up.
Misiorwoski’s best pitch from a PLV standpoint is his hard slider, which many view as more of a cutter. It grades out exceptionally well, as it is one of the fastest sliders in the game. He also has a curveball, which is similarly high velocity, that while not grading out quite as well, is exceptional at generating whiffs. Finally, Mis has a changeup, which, well is a work in progress.
It’s important to note that PLA stabilizes once a pitcher reaches 500 pitches, and Misiorowski isn’t quite there yet. I normally wouldn’t want to include a player this inexperienced in an article like this, but it feels necessary when so many people are questioning whether he’s an All-Star or not. At the end of the day, he’s an insane pitcher with ridiculous stuff, which is reflected by his PLA.
Clayton Kershaw – 4.01 PLA
The final All-Star we’re talking about is a bit of a legacy pick, but he’s still one of the great legends of our game.
Clayton Kershaw has had a bit of an up-and-down year, with some games showing flashes of his old self and others seeming to push him closer to that retirement decision. With all the mileage on his arm, he’s lost significant velocity and movement.
Kershaw’s slider is still an effective pitch for him, which is reflected by its 42% usage rate. It’s gotten decent results with a fairly high whiff rate and a fairly high CSW rate, which can be reflected in its solid PLV marks. The rest of the arsenal is now a bit lacking, though. His famous curveball hasn’t been up to par and the four-seamer has lost pretty much all of its oomph. Though, he has gotten some impressive vertical movement on the pitch.
Kershaw deserves to be an All-Star based on his career, though moving forward, he likely won’t be a major impact arm for your teams.
