Hello and welcome to Pitcher List’s latest series: Using PLA to Evaluate Pitchers! Every week, I will examine various pitchers and break them down using PLA. There will be various themes and topics each week, which will range from topics such as waiver wire picks, to buy or sell, to awards races, to lefties/righties only, etc. I hope to mix it up as much as possible to keep you all on your toes.
Now, you might be asking, what is PLA?
PLA is an ERA estimator that was created in tandem with Pitch Level Value, which we refer to as PLV. PLV is essentially an all-encompassing stat that measures individual pitches and rates them on a 0-10 scale. The elements that factor into PLV include velocity, movement, release point, location, count, and handedness of the batter. We have an excellent primer on this by the one and only Nick Pollack that you can find right here! PLA takes this 0-10 score and translates it to an estimated ERA, which makes it easier to understand and more useful for those looking for help with their fantasy teams.
It’s important to note that PLA isn’t necessarily a catch-all estimator, just as xERA, FIP, SIERA, and pCRA aren’t either. These stats ultimately still measure outcomes, which are largely dependent on how a player is executing that day. ERA estimators are not crystal balls; however, they can provide some insight if taken with a grain of salt. For the purpose of this series, we are going to use PLA as the main factor to evaluate pitchers (hence the series title), but again, no stat is perfect, especially in the complex world of pitching.
Also, stay tuned for other PLV evaluation article series, such as one that will look at individual pitches and another that will use Process+ to evaluate hitters!
Today’s pitchers are guys who are either are Vargas Rule candidates or are having the years of their lives. Are they really going to keep it together throughout the year? Let’s find out.
Ranger Suárez – 3.23 PLA
We spoke about Ranger Suárez a few weeks ago in our mixed bag edition. At the time, he looked amazing. Now, he looks like an ace.
Suarez has a deep arsenal of six pitches, with most of them being loved by PLV. His primary pitch is his sinker, which gets a great rating. He also has a cutter and four-seamer, with the cutter being loved by PLV and the four-seamer… Not so much. The offering that has gotten Suarez the most attention lately is the changeup, as it has gotten tons of swings and misses as of late. It surprisingly does not grade out well by PLV, though that can be the case with changeups.
Since I last wrote about him, every single start from Suarez has been 7+ innings. That is bonkers. He is on a 5-game 7+ inning streak and he really has looked like an ace. He is a master at keeping the WHIP down and the ER down, while getting a respectable amount of strikeouts. He really is the play in every category and looking at it, PLA seems to agree, as while a 1.99 ERA is near-impossible to maintain, a 3.23 ERA would be a seriously great number for a guy many pencilled in as the team’s 5th (!!!) starter.
Zack Littell – 3.32 PLA
HE CAN’T KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH THIS!
Yeah, the peripherals of Zack Littell are all over the place. An over 5 FIP? For a starter who has been incredibly useful this year? That’s kind of crazy, especially with the xFIP/SIERA numbers looking more in line with his actual ERA. But do you know which stat is most in line with his ERA? His PLA.
Littell is an innings-eater who throws lots of sliders and splitters. He fills up the zone like crazy, which leads to his ridiculously low walk rate and high amount of fly balls. PLV really likes both the splitter and slider, which really allow him to have a great PLA. The grades for the rest of the pitches are below average, largely because he doesn’t have the velocity or movement on the fastballs and he doesn’t have a great feel for the splitter, which he rarely ever throws these days. Still, per PLV, the slider/splitter is a winning combination, which has allowed Littell to go on a long stretch of good starts, which may continue if PLA is to be believed.
Ryne Nelson– 3.36 PLA
Ryne Nelson is a bit of a one-trick pony, but boy, is that a good trick!
Nelson throws his four-seam fastball 62% of the time! And it makes sense, as that fastball is amazing. It has EXTREME iVB (induced vertical break), which makes it hard for batters to read where it will land. It also helps that he sits 95mph with nearly 7 feet of extension. It’s an amazing pitch
Nelson struggles a bit with the rest of the arsenal. He has a slider he uses against righties that grades out pretty well, though he hasn’t been able to get strikes with it, which has limited its effectiveness. He has a cutter that gets more strikes and swings-and-misses, but PLV grades it out below many of the other cutters in the game. He also will sometimes bring out the curveball and the changeup, though again, these offerings aren’t anything special per PLV or outcome-based metrics.
So yes, Nelson is ultimately a one-trick pony type of pitcher. But… It’s a real good trick, so he may be worth rostering for the long haul, something his PLA reflects.
Matthew Liberatore – 3.87 PLA
In terms of unexpected runs to prominence, Matthew Liberatore this year has been a real surprise. He’d been used more in a reliever capacity in the past, but now he’s finally taken that starting role for good and has been probably the second-best arm for the Cardinals this year.
The arsenal for Liberatore is… Fine? There isn’t anything that stands out, apart from, I guess a slider that has a great PLV rating and whiff rate. The rest of the arsenal sits around average, with the next best offering by PLV being the changeup. The key for Liberatore is his control, as he is able to spot pitches at an above-average rate. His four-seamer is particularly effective at getting strikes, which makes it a valuable pitch, despite PLA viewing it as below average.
PLA in general is pretty in line with Liberatore’s ERA, so it shows you that this run could be legitimate. Keep rolling with Liberatore.
Matthew Boyd – 3.91 PLA
For those of you who called Matthew Boyd a huge signing for the Cubs, you were bang on. He’s been great for the team, keeping his ERA and WHIP in check to allow his team to pull ahead with the win more often than not.
What makes Boyd so effective? Like many of the game’s top lefties, he is a changeup wizard. PLV grades out his change piece well, and in real life the results match as it’s an offering that gets lots of swings and misses. It also has an elite strike rate, which feeds into a great CSW. This is a fantastic pitch, and PLV grades it out well.
The rest of Boyd’s arsenal isn’t quite as effective, with PLV viewing those offerings as below-average. It is this, combined with a fastball that is just slightly above-average per PLV, which drops his grade a fair bit. Still, a 3.91 ERA in real life would definitely be solid, especially from a pitcher some counted out replicating his awesome end to last season.
