A decision often made at the grocery store is choosing between the more expensive, name-brand item and its less expensive, store-brand counterpart. A similar problem that commonly arises during fantasy baseball drafts is deciding whether to take a more expensive player now, or instead wait for a cheaper price on a similar profile. To help make those decisions when walking down the shopping aisle on draft day, here are some comparisons between pitchers that offer similar things at different price points. Is the name-brand option worth forking up for? Or is the store-brand option similar enough to prefer the discount?
Freddy Peralta (ADP#118) vs Yusei Kikuchi (ADP#176)
Shopping Aisle: Good Volume with High Strikeouts, Middling Ratios, and Middling Wins
Freddy Peralta and Yusei Kikuchi had a remarkably similar 2024 season, pitching an almost identical full season’s volume of 32 starts and ~175 innings. Both players did so with a top-10 strikeouts-per-nine among qualified pitchers, leading to a strong 200+ strikeout season for each. And while less directly relevant to their fantasy value, they did so with a similar pitch mix of four-seam/slider/changeup/curveball.
While they provided a strong foundation of volume and strikeouts, Peralta and Kikuchi also suffered similarly inflated ratios that make their volume a touch less enticing. With WHIPs around 1.20 and ERAs well over 3.50, there is certainly a reason both pitchers average a three-digit ADP this year.
And sure, past production isn’t a great estimator of future value, but Kikuchi gave reason to think his profile is trending in the right direction. Over the past two seasons, his strikeout rate has been steadily climbing alongside an expected decline in xFIP. Meanwhile, Peralta’s rates have all been trending in the wrong direction since 2021 on a per-inning basis. And peeking under the hood, though Kikuchi’s ERA was higher than Peralta’s this last season, every ERA estimator was in Kikuchi’s favor.
In all fairness, it has yet to be seen how Kikuchi’s move to the Angels will affect his performance. And Peralta meanwhile brings a better track record alongside a known situation still pitching for Milwaukee. But these off-field differences don’t do much to offset their similar production, and with their respective performance trends and similar projections for 2025, this could be more like a tossup on who returns better value in 2025. It seems like the name-brand Peralta carries an inflated ADP that hasn’t fully adjusted to his mild skills decline, while the store-brand option in Kikuchi could be phenomenal at his price.
Framber Valdez (ADP#66) vs Justin Steele (ADP#130)
Shopping Aisle: Volume-Dependent Strikeouts, Elite Ratios, Strong Wins
Framber Valdez is known to be a safe, foundational pitcher who anchors fantasy rotations with his high volume and elite ratios. While carrying a roughly average 8.87 strikeouts-per-nine over the past couple of years, he brings plenty of strikeouts to the table more so through the accumulation of opportunity. Among starters with over 300 innings pitched across the past three seasons, he ranks at the top of the board among every fantasy-relevant statistic.
Meanwhile, Justin Steele brings a fairly similar and enticing profile. Also not a torcher in strikeout rate with a moderate 9.09 strikeouts-per-nine over the past two seasons, Steele has finished with a dependable sub-3.20 ERA in each of his three non-rookie seasons. And with his improvement in walk rates throughout his major-league career, Steele has brought strong WHIPs as well in a way that effectively matches Valdez on a per-inning basis.
The biggest factor keeping Steele as the store-brand version of Valdez stems from their differences in volume. These strikeout-accumulating, elite-ratio pitchers make their bread and butter through their volume; facing more batters helps turn their middling strikeout rates into actual strikeouts, and a larger number of innings helps their ratios become even more impactful. However, a slurry of injuries has kept Steele averaging almost 35 fewer innings per season over the last couple of years, preventing him from achieving a full Valdez-esque confidence in volume. But with the 2025 season comes a fresh page and an opportunity for Steele to hopefully return to the 173.1 inning mark he posted in 2023. And with a projection of just 20 fewer innings than Valdez, their similar skillsets should push their ADPs closer together, even while volume is so integral to their value.
Demonstrated by Valdez never finishing a season in the top 10 among starters, this profile just doesn’t have the ceiling to jump the high-strikeout, high-variance pitchers that happen to hit their top volume and ratio outcomes all at the same time. Valdez instead brings a consistency that places him as the SP#15 off the board this season, and with the production he brings year-over-year, it’s hard to see that as anything but fair especially for managers trying to avoid risk. Instead, the store-brand option in Steele might be undervalued at these prices as a good option to mellow out those high-strikeout, risky-ratio pitching options taken elsewhere in the draft.
Hunter Greene (ADP#104) and Nick Pivetta (ADP#189)
Shopping Aisle: Low Volume, High Strikeout Rate, Volatile Ratios and Wins
Hunter Greene posted a truly spectacular 2024 season, leveraging his incredible stuff to overpower hitters and limit baserunners en route to a top-15 SP finish. With an electric strikeout rate and sparkling ratios, the 25-year-old has finally had the break-out season that has seemed inevitable for so long. So what changed in Greene’s skillset between his disastrous 2023 and his glorious 2024?
Honestly, not much.
While he increased his arm slot by three degrees, his pitches didn’t really improve; both his four-seamer and his slider had almost identical PLVs between the years. And sure, he got rid of his poor changeup, but just replaced it with a poor splitter, though neither made up more than 8% of his pitch mix in their respective years. And while he saw a small extension increase, his average four-seamer velocity dropped enough that batters still had more time to react to the pitch in 2024 compared to 2023. Though he saw an acute improvement in his walk rate, his command graded out worse in 2024 by plvLoc+. He threw more non-competitive waste-zone pitches while somehow also throwing more pitches in the heart of the zone, of which both areas carry above-average xwOBAs across the league.
The main difference for Greene’s remarkable 2024 season was a marked improvement in limiting hard contact. This is even more important pitching as a fly-ball pitcher in the Great American Ball Park launching pad, and Greene benefited greatly in 2024 from a steep drop in his home-run-per-fly-ball rate thanks to his reduced average exit velocity. With research from Baseball Prospectus noting that pitchers affect the exit velocities against them far less than hitters control their own, it’s very likely Greene won’t be able to sustain even close to these home run rates.
Without better stuff, without better location, and with imminent home-run-per-fly-ball regression coming, there isn’t enough reason to believe Greene’s dominant 2024 season was any more deserved than his bleak 2023 season. With such a wide range between the two seasons’ outcomes, it’s no surprise projection systems have had difficulty agreeing on Greene’s trajectory for 2025. ATC projects his 2025 ERA at a lofty 3.89, a far cry from his sparkling 2.75 mark in 2024, and split almost exactly between that and his 4.82 in 2023.
But even with volatile ratios, Greene’s value has always stemmed from his incredible strikeout rate that just can’t be found later in the draft. That is, at least, until you look at a mere 85 picks later.
A hidden gem close to an ADP of 200, Nick Pivetta has quietly held the eighth-highest strikeouts-per-nine among starters over the last two seasons with a minimum of 120 innings pitched, just barely edging out Greene over that same timeframe. Though he’s never posted a season below a 4.00 ERA, his ERA estimators have taken a big step forward of late and give optimism that he might be able to get down toward the high-3s as he moves away from Fenway to pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
With a strong strikeout rate, ERA upside, and a propensity for helpful WHIPs, Pivetta’s 2025 projection ends up looking very similar to Greene’s. While Greene carries more upside to dream on through a repeat of his 2024 season, Pivetta is likely to contribute to fantasy teams in very similar ways in 2025 and can be had for a much more affordable price. Whether the name-brand Greene is overvalued or the store-brand Pivetta is undervalued comes down to your individual risk tolerance, and while there’s a case to be made that Greene is a great pick in winner-takes-all, shoot-for-the-moon style leagues, Pivetta carries Great Value (pun intended) that’s just hard to beat with the minimal investment needed.