“We’re all told at some point in time that we can no longer play the children’s game. We just don’t know when that’s going to be. Some of us are told at 18; some of us are told at 40, but we’re all told.”- Barry Moss, Moneyball.
It’s commonly accepted in the world of baseball that there is a plateau that professional baseball players hit in terms of their talent and production. Their careers consist of persistent increases in performance before hitting the “prime” of their playing days. Once hitters reach their prime they are considered to be at the top of their game, but once they are past their peak, it’s a different story.
As players enter the twilight of their careers, their production level diminishes consistently until they are basically a non-factor. Some players leave the game before they reach this point, going out on a high. However, some stick around long past their peak, and in turn are a shell of the player that they once were.
These players are still relevant in terms of real-life and fantasy production, but they have all shown signs of regression that should worry fantasy managers.
Veteran Hitters Facing The Cliff
Nolan Arenado, 3B – St. Louis Cardinals
It seems almost blasphemous to refer to an eight-time All-Star and six-time Platinum Glove Award winner as a player looking at a decline, but that seems to be the case for Nolan Arenado. The 33-year old third baseman is, quite literally, one of the best defenders of this generation. He ranks second among active players in defensive WAR (20.1, 1.1 behind Kevin Kiermaier) and has racked up 162 defensive runs saved over his 12-year career.
As good as his defense is and continues to be, his offensive production was just as good for the majority of his career. Between the ages of 24 and 31 (excluding the 2020 COVID-shortened season), Arenado averaged over 37 home runs per season, exceeding 100 RBI in all but two of those years. He was rewarded for his dominance with top-five finishes in MVP voting in four seasons (’16, ’17, ’18, ’22).
The story has shifted over the past two seasons though. The drop-off in all-around performance between 2022 and 2023 was drastic, and rightfully caused fans to question whether the veteran infielder would retain his value into the twilight of his career.
2024 saw a slight bounce back on defense, but he still missed out on the Gold Glove award for the second straight season. The past two seasons are the only two years in Arenado’s career in which he hasn’t taken home that piece of hardware. To add even more concern, the offensive numbers continued to drop.
The Statcast data adds more fuel to the fire. Arenado’s 86.3 mph average exit velocity is in the bottom-30 of all qualified major league hitters, and his 16 barrels in 2024 were the fewest in his career (excluding 2020). It’s not all doom and gloom for the Cardinals’ third-baseman though. His ability to avoid striking out (14.5% strikeout rate, 94th percentile) remains among the upper echelons of MLB hitters. Arenado’s defensive experience and ability also makes him a valuable asset in the St. Louis infield.
The offensive drop off should be a major point of concern for fantasy managers. Arenado was a constant perfomer during his prime, finishing among the elite fantasy producers at his position for the better part of a decade. Those days seem to be gone though, and the decreasing amount of power that he’s able to produced will limit his ability to register home runs and RBI next season. The value he provides in the field should keep him in the lineup on most days, but he likely will never reach the heights he reached before 2022 again in his career.
The Cardinals are at a crossroads entering 2025. Their veteran core of hitters are not going to be around forever, and the rest of the NL Central continues to produce young talent capable of taking their teams to the next level. St. Louis may be forced to make the tough decision to move on from older bats like Arenado and (spoiler) Paul Goldschmidt in order to retool and continue to compete with their inter-division rivals.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B – Free Agent
You may be saying: “Really? Two Cardinals to start it off? From a Cubs fan? This seems biased!” While a fair concern, I assure you that there is no bias at play here, and Goldschmidt’s production over the past two seasons will demonstrate why he’s facing the dreaded late-career drop off. In fact, he’s already started the descent. Like Arenado, it feels wrong to say that a player that has played such a large role in Major League Baseball over the past decade could be reaching the end of his career, but that is the reality the veteran is facing.
Goldschmidt has been a force in baseball since his days as a Diamondback. In each of his final six seasons in the desert, Goldschmidt represented the D’Backs at the All-Star Game, and received MVP votes in all but one of those seasons. Before the 2019 season, the Cardinals acquired Goldschmidt via trade, then promptly extended him through the 2024 season.
His dominance translated to St. Louis. In his first three seasons with the Cardinals, he finished 20th, 15th and sixth in MVP voting respectively, mashing 71 homers in those seasons (COVID shortened the 2020 season, limiting him to eight). Goldschmidt’s efforts were finally recognized in 2022, when he received the MVP award.
Like Arenado, he’s struggled to return to the form that landed him the title as the league’s best player. His combined WAR from his ’23 and ’24 campaigns (4.5) fall way short of his 2022 mark (6.8). In his age-36 season, he saw both his power numbers and his plate discipline marks regress.
The difference between Goldschmidt and his teammate across the diamond is that the first-baseman’s defense is not as strong as Arenado’s. The four-time Gold Glover has seen his defensive metrics decrease since his last accolade in 2021. In over 1,300 innings at the position in 2024, Goldschmidt had an OAA, DRS and FRV of exactly zero. While he may not be a liability, his glove is not an irreplaceable asset.
Goldschmidt’s 2025 fantasy value is highly dependent on where he lands in free agency. If he lands in a ballpark that can benefit his pull-side power (HOU, LA, CIN), then the decreasing power in his bat could still play. Multiple sources are expecting the Cardinals to part ways with the veteran slugger, opening up the door for a team in need of extra power to swoop in. Goldschmidt’s role with his new team should be noted as the new season starts, but for now do not expect him to reach the heights he did before 2022.
Cody Bellinger, OF – Chicago Cubs
See! Told you! No bias here. In two seasons with the Chicago Cubs, Bellinger has become a vital cog in the team’s pursuit of October baseball for the first time since 2020. In his first season at Wrigley Field in 2023, he finished 10th in MVP voting and took home a Silver Slugger Award. Chicago’s fans were optimistic going into 2024, and expected the former Dodger to be the catalyst in the cleanup spot among an exciting lineup with aspirations to compete for a World Series title.
One look at the NL Central standings will tell you that this did not come to fruition. The Cubs underperformed massively, finishing ten games outside of the division lead, and six out of a Wild Card berth. Nearly every Cub hitter regressed between ’23 and ’24, but few more noticeably than Bellinger.
Yes, his 2023 may have been a fluke, especially when looking at his final two years in Los Angeles in comparison. In 2021, Bellinger put up the 11th worst WAR (-1.0) in the entire league, just two years after claiming baseball’s top individual prize. While he was better in 2022 (it would have been really hard not to be), his performance did little to inspire confidence in LA’s front office, who decided not to retain him following a .654 OPS season.
It may be slightly harsh to call Bellinger a “veteran” in comparison to the other names on this list considering he’s just 29 and the other names are in their mid-to-late 30’s. That said, 2025 will be Bellinger’s ninth season in Major League Baseball. In that time, he’s accrued 6.160 years of service, missing time in every season since 2020 with injuries. While these injuries may have contributed to some of his struggles at the plate, his inconsistent availability is a concern for someone being paid superstar money.
Bellinger opted to remain with the Cubs on a one-year, $27.5 million contract, but his status with the club is far from certain. Chicago is flush with talented outfield prospects. Pete Crow-Armstrong’s explosive second half has likely landed him the Opening Day start in center field, with Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara waiting in the wings for their chances to shine in the majors. The other incumbents have far more stability with the team than Bellinger does as well. Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are under contract until 2026, and the latter is coming off of a 139 wRC+ season. Even at first base, it looks like Michael Busch’s breakout season will result in a consistent role in the lineup next season. The youth movement is coming in Chicago, and it might result in a former MVP being left by the wayside.
With many other teams, Bellinger would be nowhere near the “cliff” of regression and lack of playing time. However because of the Cubs’ situation, he may be a bit closer to the edge than anticipated.
George Springer, CF – Toronto Blue Jays
No matter what your opinion of him is, George Springer will go down in baseball history. The 35-year old outfielder was a key piece in one of the greatest rebuilds in baseball history, and became one of the faces of the most infamous franchises in recent memory. Springer was named the 2017 World Series MVP after hitting .379 with five home runs in the seven-game victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, but that is likely the last thing fans remember from that series.
Eight years later, Springer is entering the twilight of his career. He’s put together a stellar resume after eleven seasons in the majors, racking up four All-Star appearances, two American League pennants and a (controversial) World Series ring. He signed with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2021, and has become a key contributor for the Canadian side. In four seasons north of the border, Springer has a 9.7 fWAR.
Entering 2025, the veteran outfielder is a different player than the one that signed a six-year, $150 million contract four years ago. From 2017 to 2021, Springer averaged an OPS of .889. In the three seasons since, that average has dropped to .740. However, as the power departed, a new skill emerged. In those three seasons, Springer has racked up 50 stolen bases, more than he had in his entire career with Houston.
While the extra steals have been nice, they do not make up for the gradual decrease in nearly every offensive metric between 2023 and 2024. Springer’s average and max. exit velocity are down significantly in the last year, leading to a massive decrease in expected batting average and BABIP.
The home run numbers have been affected too. Springer’s 2024 total (19) is his lowest since his second year (16). Once considered a shoo-in for 25-30 home runs every season, it would now be considered an impressive feat if he eclipses 20. His average exit velocity is in the bottom 20 among MLB hitters. Just two of those hitters had 20-or-more long balls in 2024 (Altuve and the next player on this list)
Springer’s under contract for two more seasons, and his large contract makes likely makes him difficult to move, so his spot in the Blue Jays lineup should be safe this season. That said, fantasy managers looking for Springer to return to his 2017-2021 form will likely be out of luck.
Marcus Semien, 2B – Texas Rangers
Before I start, I want to preface: Marcus Semien is still a very productive player, and will reclaim his spot at the top of the lineup in Arlington. The reason he is on this list is because I think a performance regression may be coming. Semien’s batting average, OBP, and slugging percentage all dropped noticeably in 2024, and his 23 home runs is his lowest full-season total since 2018.
The 34-year-old second baseman is a rare breed among major league hitters. When he entered the league in 2013, his major issue was his strikeout rate (27th percentile in ’15). Since then, he’s turned it into a strength (91st percentile in ’24). Semien’s ability to adapt and evolve as a player has allowed him to thrive for the duration of an eleven year career in the majors. However, he may be forced to evolve again as he enters the latter stages of his career.
His defensive prowess has also improved steadily. In 2016, Semien was one of the worst defenders among MLB players (8th percentile). Last season, he was the second best infielder in the entire league according to OAA (19) and tenth in fielding run value (19).
Given all of this information, why in the world would I guess that Semien is going to fall off in 2025? Simple:
Stretches of Semien’s 2024 campaign were rough, especially June and August. In those two months he hit .202 and .207 respectively, and failed to reach bases more than 30% of the time. There were good months as well (.287/.374/.479 in July), but the inconsistency that he showed last season should raise warning flags.
Don’t get me wrong: Semien is still a solid player to have in your fantasy lineup. He’s a 20 homer candidate again going into 2025, and his sprint speed indicates he’ll return to the 15-20 stolen base mark next season. That said, his 2024 season showed some cracks in the foundations that have made Semien a safe option for fantasy managers. If he starts the year in a slump, he may have a harder time bouncing back at 34-years-old than he did in previous years.