In his second start back after returning from the DL with elbow inflammation, J.A. Happ gave us a super bleghy 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks against the Athletics. I'd reference K/BB numbers for the entire year, but it's a bit out of whack across his five starts of the season given his first two starts that earned 17 Ks and 0 walks followed by three starts of 10 Ks and 6 walks. Then there's a 30.8% HR/FB rate that makes his xFIP turn into 3.42 despite a 5.33 ERA...let's legit throw all it away. It's five starts and he's had just two back from the DL now. Next we have Seattle (yay!) ChiSox (nay!), Royals (yay!), and after that I think we can get a good idea of what we're dealing with. My expectation is along the lines of a 3.60+ ERA with a middling K rate and 2.50 BB/9 or so. Essentially a Toby that you'll need to roster in this ridiculous sea of blegh that is the SP waiver wire.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Nick, would you roll with Clevinger today in Coors? My league has a 12 start limit, but we can go past the limit on Sunday’s.
I think you play it conservatively this early in the week
Agreed, thank you!
Do you see anything in Blake Snell’s recent AAA starts lead you to believe his performance will improve when he’s back up in the Bigs?
The problem will Snell has always been his walk rate. If he shows me that he has the confidence to stay inside the zone and have success, then I’ll buy the chance he can carry it into the majors.
He’s not doing that thus far in the minors, which means I wouldn’t invest in Snell right now.
Man wassup with this Panda and Toby stuff? Is their a dictionary somewhere on this site I’m missing?
Sorry about that!
Yes, we have a Glossary: http://pitcherlist.com/glossary/
Oh cool. Sorry I missed it. Also sorry my sacrifice of rostering JA Happ all year will only net me a Toby. Think I liked things better before I knew what it meant lol.
You rolling Nola out there today?
Yes I am
let us pray
Hey Nick…..what’s your take on Seth Lugo? Possible streamer for weekend start against Atlanta? Any value moving forward? Potential for top 50?
Not much of a fan of Lugo. Last year’s 2.67 ERA was a huge product of luck – .230 BABIP, 85.7 LOB rate, 4.33 FIP, 4.71 xFIP and 38.4% hard contact! – and while I think his Curveball can be an effective offering, there isn’t enough polish all around to make me own him with confidence.
I can see a streamer at times, but not more than that. I prefer the other Spry Chickens (Peacock, Biagini, Delgado, Godley, Cahill when he was healthy, etc.) over him.
The Samardzijaning is happening! Hope he keeps it up, his stuff has been too good for too long to not see it fully realized.