It had been almost a couple of years since we last heard Shane Baz’s name.
At one point, Baz was viewed as perhaps the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. In his 2021 Minor League season (split across AA and AAA), Baz struck out 113 batters and only walked 13. This season was made all the more remarkable when you realize that command and control were cited as the main concerns about Baz once he got to the higher levels of the minors.
This 2021 success led to Baz getting his first big league cup of coffee to end the year. For the most part, he did not disappoint.
Across the limited sample size of three starts, Baz put up an ERA of 2.03 and a minuscule WHIP of 0.68. Even more impressive than this was his 32.8% CSW rate and his 18.2% swinging strike rate, which showcased his excellent stuff combined with precise execution. His strikeout rate in this short sample was a whopping 36.7% and the walk rate was down to 6.1%.
The pitch modeling type stats backed up the excellence of Baz’s 2021 starts. Like many flamethrowers, the elite fastball was the straw that stirred the drink. According to Stuff+, Baz’s fastball was worth a 159 grade, meaning it was 59% nastier than the average fastball in terms of velocity and movement. While again this was over a small sample size, Baz threw 54.9% fastballs, which showcased his trust in the elite pitch. Many factors went into this fastball being so elite besides just the 97mph velocity. He showed great to elite vertical movement on the pitch, which was especially magnified considering that he released it with a flat vertical approach angle. In basic terms, the fastball was super deceptive in addition to having velocity. This combination of leaving hitters off time and swinging under the pitch made it valuable.
Baz’s secondary pitches also showed plenty of potential. Well, at least with the slider. The curveball had some insane numbers in 2021, but it saw fairly limited use. The slider was a highly relied upon primary pitch though and it delivered. Baz’s slider was a high-rotation buzzsaw of a pitch that saw a 26.5% swinging strike rate. Having an elite untouchable fastball paired with an elite untouchable slider is the dream for a lot of pitchers, as having these can get you compared to guys like Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole.
Over a full season, Baz’s numbers would likely be unsustainable. However, when a top-end arm shows this kind of talent, it definitely counts for something.
Baz dealt with some injury woes to start the 2022 season, but when he came back he looked just decent. He wasn’t bad by any means, but just alright. This was bound to happen though, as it’s nearly impossible for a young pitcher to not face some bumps in the road. Baz’s CSW and swinging strike rates notably went down a bit, but they would still place top 15 among pitchers if Baz was qualified.
Baz’s 2022 season also showcased an issue he shared with many other elite flamethrowing young pitchers: his lack of contact management. Baz got hit hard in 2022, as about 52% of the balls put in play off Baz were deemed as being hard-hit (95mph or higher exit velocity). He showed he could miss bats, but there was still concern over how hard the contact was. Concerns about exit velocities were put on hold though when Baz went down with an elbow injury against the Reds, requiring Tommy John surgery. Following the procedure, Baz went nearly two years without throwing a Major League pitch.
Now Shane Baz is back, and it feels like there are a wide array of outcomes we could see from him. His ceiling is still one of the highest in baseball, but the floor is way lower than it once was.
There were plenty of concerns about whether Shane Baz would return to form after witnessing his AAA starts. Simply put, some of them were appalling. This was largely due to concerns with his fastball. The velocity was significantly down, as well as the ride he got on it.
When Baz finally got called up to the big leagues again though, many of these worries were quelled. His fastball has immediately looked like one of the better heaters in the Majors again. The velocity is back up to the highs it once was and the other underlying numbers were great too. Baz in particular has had really excellent numbers in the Fan 4+ metric. This is a stat that encapsulates the major factors that lead to swings and misses (velocity, extension, release height, vertical movement) and determines a fastball’s potential to get whiffs compared to the MLB average (which is 100).
The location of Baz’s fastball has been great as well. Baz has gone back to his bread-and-butter of challenging hitters at the top of the zone, as he has blown by hitters to the tune of a 14.5% swinging strike rate. This can be seen with his fastball heat map, as a large portion of his heaters have been high in the zone.
Now admittedly, players have hit his fastball quite a bit in the small sample size of its usage. The BABIP against the pitch is a whopping .538. With such an elite profile behind it though, this number will certainly go down, and Baz’s run prevention stats will improve. There isn’t much to be worried about with the heater, although there are some questions to be had with his secondaries.
The once-elite Shane Baz slider has been a bit pedestrian since coming back. Compared to its debut in 2021, everything is down. He’s allowed a low batting average against it thus far, but the pitch isn’t getting the whiffs or outside-the-zone chases that it used to. The spin rate is significantly down, which could explain why the once-lethal put-away weapon isn’t doing its job.
Now notably the curveball and changeup haven’t been mentioned yet, and that is largely by design. These pitches aren’t really part of what has made Shane Baz tick. The curveball has gotten swings and misses in the past, but his lack of command with this breaking ball has kept it back from being the game-changing pitch it has the potential to be.
The changeup employed by Baz is even weaker, as it is basically a non-factor in the limited MLB action that he has seen. It hasn’t been able to generate whiffs like the diving changeups of his rotation mates Shane McClanahan and Ryan Pepiot. A next step for Baz could be really developing this pitch, as having a devastating offspeed pitch to pair with an electric fastball could be the piece to bring him over the top.
Shane Baz was once upon a time a player in contention for the title of best young pitcher on the planet. He has missed nearly two years, but he has come back and has looked like a great pitcher. Will he be the elite Gerrit Cole type we expected? Time will tell. Either way, the Rays have an excellent arm that is still young in Baz who joins a rotation of young future studs.
Featured image by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)