Baseball’s regular season, and the fantasy baseball regular season with it, has finally started up again. With the season still in its nascent stages, we’re still very much living in a small-sample-size world where stats are concerned.
Still, there have been a number of players who have struggled out of the gate, at least on paper.
Some of these eye-catching outings may have caused panic in places. And while each poor outing or start can’t be chalked up to a small sample size every time, there are a few not to be concerned about. Or rather, a few that, based on underlying data, may end up being nothing more than a blip on the radar.
*All stats are as of the beginning of play on Thursday, April 4.
Don’t sleep on Seattle Mariners right-hander Bryce Miller’s uneven first start.
Moving seamlessly from referencing part of Tom Hanks’ filmography to Miller’s first start, there’s no denying it wasn’t an ideal first outing for the 25-year-old, who also is debuting a split-finger offering this season.
Facing the Boston Red Sox at home, Miller allowed six hits, four earned runs, four barrels, a pair of walks, and two home runs in five innings, striking out six batters in the process. His FIP for the outing (7.37) was both not great and at the same time outpacing his ERA (7.20).
And while you shouldn’t cast all that away, Miller allowed 18 home runs in 131 innings last season (or 1.23 per nine frames). Still, it is worth noting that many of them came in bunches like this past start against Boston.
Of the 18 homers Miller allowed last year, 10 of them came in a pair of separate two-start stretches. The first was in late July and early August (July 26 and August 1 to be exact), when Miller allowed four and two home runs respectively in starts against the Minnesota Twins and, as it would happen, the Red Sox.
Later, in his final two starts of his rookie campaign in late September, the right-hander allowed two home runs each versus the Texas Rangers (on September 22) and the Houston Astros (on September 27).
Remove those starts and the 19.2 innings Miller cumulatively threw in them, and his home runs per nine-inning rate for the season drops to 0.6. Furthermore, in 14 of his other 21 starts, he didn’t surrender a homer.
Switching back to Miller’s 2024 debut, the right-hander registered 16 whiffs and a quality 30% CSW rate.
For as promising as the right-hander was in his rookie season, a rookie season that included the seventh-best Stuff+ among starters with at least 130 innings, per FanGraphs, and a 4.8% walk rate that was in the 95th percentile league-wide, the 25-year-old didn’t always overwhelm with swinging strikes or consistently high CSW rates.
Sure, he had games where both metrics spiked, but Miller recorded more than 16 whiffs in a game just twice last season, and saw his CSW rate finish at 30% or higher in just seven of his 25 starts.
For a player who possesses such good stuff and has a track record of limiting walks at an elite rate, more swinging strikes could help unlock elite fantasy potential. Helping in that regard, at least against the Red Sox to open the season, was a 60% whiff rate and a 35% CSW rate from Miller’s splitter.
The first start wasn’t ideal, but the rest of them have the possibility to be much, much better.
Arguably more so than for early-season sample sizes for starting pitchers, it can be tricky to glean too much from a hitter’s first 15 to 25 plate appearances, short of a blistering start at the plate.
There might be a bit of an exception here with Riley Greene in the sense that his early season, surface-level metrics likely aren’t anywhere near indicative of what the rest of the season will look like for the outfielder. Nor do they accurately encompass what he’s done at the plate so far.
One hit in four games and 17 plate appearances isn’t ideal. Nor is the .067 average that it equates to. The .204 wOBA? Could be better.
From a surface-level stat standpoint, it all could look better, especially for a player who logged a .365 xwOBA and an 11.3% barrel rate in 416 plate appearances last season while establishing himself as a constant in the top half of the Tigers lineup.
But a closer look reveals Greene has been making better quality contact this season than his initial numbers would indicate, just without the results to show for it. He’s already collected a pair of barrels (his one hit was a home run) and his xwOBA sits at .329 for now.
In other words, this is just a slow start on paper. Sporting a .000 BABIP is certainly playing a part too.
However, in addition to the quality of contact, Greene’s plate discipline remains similar to his breakout year in 2023, albeit in a much smaller sample size this year. In fact, there’s been some improvements so far in 2024.
Greene has also hit third or fourth in each game this season, something that should continue to pay dividends in Detroit with the likes of Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter, and Mark Canha (who’s posted a 222 wRC+ in his first 17 plate appearances as a Tiger) hitting near him in the lineup.
This applies to Miller as well, but if a fantasy manager in your league is worried by Greene’s slow (on paper) start, now might be the time to work out an early-season trade. If you can acquire Greene (or Miller) it could pay serious dividends down the stretch. Or even as soon as next week. Improved production is coming.