3/13 update: I have since updated these rankings on March 13th. Check out those rankings here.
We're continuing our Starting Pitcher Rankings after going over the Top 20 Starters on Monday. We'll be revealing the Top 100+ this week and it starts to get fun with the Top 40 today. Let's dive in!
Tier 3: Now What? (Continued)
21. Jameson Taillon (Pittsburgh Pirates) – We're continuing the same Tier from yesterday's Top 20 (it's a yoooge tier) and now it gets fun because I see big stuff here with Taillon. BIG STUFF. He learned his two-seamer from the holy Ray Searage when he hit the majors last season and now he's developing his Changeup alongside it to have a fantastic 1-2 punch that I expect to develop more in 2017. He also has a nasty Curveball that generated groundballs at a fantastic 67% mark and held a 4.7 pVal in just over 400 thrown in 2016. The kid has some serious potential with these pitches and I can see him fully blossoming in the year ahead, but let's talk a little about his approach last season. Diving in, it's quick to see his goal was to focus exclusively arm-side with his Fastball/Changeup, and focus down under the zone with his Curveball - which he did exceptionally well, might I add. He’ll need to command his pitches on both sides of the plate to be truly effective, while gaining a touch more movement on his Changeup (not enough fade currently, but he used a four-seam grip last year as he picked up his two-seamer. I expect a new grip in 2017 and much better movement/pairing with the heater). But this shouldn't be a negative as it highlights the fact there is room to grow and while he doesn’t have the same hook that Aaron Nola has displayed, I can see Taillon being the command specialist with plus heat (94.2mph average Fastball last year!) with great secondary pitchers to turn himself into a bonafide Top 25, heck Top 20 starter this year. Of course we can’t forget that he returned from TJS just last year, which cuts his chances of a 200+ inning season (maybe they'll let him loose?), despite his 160+ frames in 2016. Still, I see a breakout in the near future and I would love own roughly 180/190 innings of Taillon for the year ahead.
I don’t think a pitcher left a worse taste in my mouth after breaking them down last season than Manaea did – when he threw a grand total of 1 changeup out of 75 pitches in his second start against SEA. Good to see he adjusted the approach down the stretch. Also digging the love for Paxton. Give me 200 innings from Pax and I’ll show you a messy pair of underwear..
I remember that breakdown, it’s crazy how much Manaea changed when he realized his Changeup was the answer.
And have fun adding Paxton in your Bold Predictions article, no way he’s getting 200 innings.
Is Duffy one of the safer picks in this tier by default? I own him in a dynasty league and when he was good, he was untouchable, but as he tired down the stretch everything was getting stung into the OF.
I figured he’d end up being a 3.65 ERA, 200K guy, but possibly a poison pill down the stretch in H2H leagues. Does that sound about right?
Well, I don’t see Duffy striking out 200 if he’s getting hit often. A performance dip would be the product of dwindling velocity mostly (and luck not going his way to a lesser degree), which means the strikeout production would fall as well.
Starting off with a 1-2 punch of Max and Sale in a 12 team Dynasty, no contracts. When would you look to grab a #3 type in the regular phase of the draft (8 keepers). I’m considering last years disappointments for that 3rd spot, Grienke, Sonny, King Felix types. Not sure who will be around or kept.
It depends on which arms are available in your draft, but you have two options: Either play it safe with Kershaw/Scherzer and go for a decent floor option (Gausman, Lackey, Teheran, etc.), or aim to collect a handful of later upside arms that would turn your staff into a legit beast and spend nearly everything else in early/mid rounds on offense.
My general feeling is to always chase upside, which means I’d be looking to secure two of my Top 40 (guys like Pax, Nola, Manaea, Fulmer who are going later than my rankings) and chase a few later guys as well like Cotton and Richards.