Back again with, you guessed it, more fantasy baseball points league content! Over these last few weeks, I’ve been lucky enough to be able to spread the word on just how much fun fantasy baseball points leagues can be, and how the strategy behind them can be quite unique.
In a points league, players you’d typically overlook all of a sudden become useful. The light-hitting, non-base-stealing guy who hits .290 while striking out just 5% of the time becomes something that offers immediate fantasy value. Typically they’re only reserved for a late-round, last-off-the-bench type of role in a 5×5 league when you need an average boost.
With that in mind, there are plenty of players who offer much more value in points league formats than category or roto leagues. The same can be said the other way around as well, with there being plenty of guys who hold value in category leagues but tend to struggle mightily in points leagues. Let’s dive in and see who some of my favorite risers and fallers are for the 2024 season.
Points League Risers
2023 Stats (617 PA): .354 | 10 HR | 71 R | 69 RBI | 3 SB
If you had to build the prototypical points league player in a lab they’d come out as a Luis Arraez clone. He’s gone from being the guy who does the contact-driven offseason drills to work on his plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, to being a back-to-back batting champion who refuses to strike out.
In a category league, the only elite production you get from him is in the batting average department. In a points league, on the other hand, he does everything you want when pinpointing a mid-round guy with top 10 at the position upside.
Luis Arráez swung 1,102 times last year and completely missed the baseball only 72 times. Those misses were by an average of less than 2 inches and this miss of 8 inches was his largest all season long. 😮
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— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) February 22, 2024
His 36.3% ideal-plate-appearance rate is far and away the best in the league. His league-best 3.1% swinging-strike rate led to an also league-best 5.5% strikeout rate. He did all of this by making the best overall contact in the league. It’s one thing to be able to not strike out, it’s another to be able to take that contact and actually do something with it. In category leagues, it’s not going to do you a ton of favors having him on your team. He’ll be “ok”. In a points league, though, he’s locked in as a consistent top-12 second baseman year in and year out.
2023 Stats (146.1 IP) 8 W | 3.57 ERA | 1.20 WHIP | 140 K
It’s not often you see an older, once-dominant relief pitcher turn to the dark side of starting pitching later in his career. If you do, it never seems to go well. Lugo was apparently not aware of that in 2023. He came out and pitched what I would consider a great season. He looked dominant at times and proved he was worthy of sticking in a rotation. With a move to the weaker Kansas City Royals rotation, he seems to be all but locked in for a middle-of-the-rotation nod.
What makes him so much better in points leagues is that despite low win rates, an average ERA, and an average WHIP, he does the two things I look for when pinpointing pitching standouts. One is the fact that he tossed 17 quality starts in 2023, something that ends up being much more valuable than wins in the long run. The other is his 17.2% strikeout-minus-walk rate. Limiting negative points in terms of earned runs and walks is crucial for a successful points league pitcher. Bonus points if that pitcher can also have a league average or better strikeout-minus-walk rate.
He’s currently being drafted as the 88th starting pitcher off the board. This comes after finishing as the 39th-best starting pitcher in terms of points per start in 2023 (minimum 100 innings). While his ratio and win totals aren’t much to write home about in a roto league, he should do more than ok in a points league.
2023 Stats (621 PA): .262 | 5 HR | 72 R | 45 | 13 SB
A quick glance at Benintendi’s end of the season stat line would tell you one thing: he’s a very boring player. When it comes to power, he doesn’t have much. When it comes to stolen base ability, there’s not a ton to offer there either. He’s also not out here competing for batting titles. What he’s doing is getting on base, not striking out, excelling in extra-base hits, and making that sweet, sweet zone contact that we all love to see.
Benintendi paired excellent strike zone judgment with elite contact metrics. This led to his second straight season with a swinging-strike rate under 10%. This means that although his diminished power and barely double-digit steal numbers are tanking his value in roto leagues, his value stays essentially the same in points leagues. What he lacks in home run ability, he makes up for in doubles with the 34 he hit last season. With him projected to lead off against righties and be a middle-of-the-order guy against lefties (thanks to mlbplayingtime.com), the later-round points league value remains there for Benintendi.
Points League Fallers
2023 Stats (364 PA): .222 | 25 HR | 58 R | 56 RBI | 12 SB
So there were a few common denominators in the risers category. The main one is the ability to limit strikeouts as much as possible. Jose Siri is the complete polar opposite of that. He’s the perfect example of someone who offers so much appeal in a category league. The batting average isn’t great, but he hit 25 home runs and had 40 total extra-base hits in just 101 games while stealing double-digit bases. It’s all the other stuff that tanks his value in points leagues heading into this season.
Siri had the fifth highest strikeout rate in baseball in 2023 amongst hitters with at least 3oo plate appearances. His 35.7% strikeout rate and terrible 61.6% contact rate meant that while Siri does make great QUALITY contact, he makes abysmal overall contact. If you’re looking for someone who’s going to offer you an added advantage in points leagues, it’s not going to be a guy with a sub-65% contact rate and a 20.2% swinging strike rate. You can find similar production elsewhere.
2023 Stats (526 PA): .246 | 30 HR | 61 R | 69 RBI
Rooker is walking proof that two things can be true at the same time. He has somehow found a way to be both one of the best home run hitters in the league, while also being one of the worst at actually hitting a baseball. It’s a match made for only the most degenerate fantasy baseball points league minds out there.
Now I’m not knocking the guy. He’s a great follow on Twitter and he was an All-Star for a reason in 2023. In fact, he was one of only 29 hitters to meet or exceed the 30 home run threshold last season. The problem is, he also led the entire group in strikeout rate at 32.7%. Rooker’s issue is a mix of terrible contact numbers (64.9%) and an ideal-plate-appearance rate of just 24.7% which is in the 37th percentile in baseball.
In rotisserie and category leagues, I love Rooker as a cheap option for power. In points leagues, he becomes a much less viable option despite the home run hitting ability. I’d rather have a guy like Ty France going only a handful of picks later. He may only hit 20-22 home runs but will strike out considerably less and contribute the same in all other categories.
Love the points league content. Keep it coming!
This H2H points-league guy thanks you! I look forward to more articles like this.
Thank you for the Points League stuff.