The New York Mets created plenty of buzz heading into the 2023 season, fantasy and otherwise.
That’ll happen when a 101-win team adds Justin Verlander, José Quintana, Kodai Senga, David Robertson, Tommy Pham, Adam Ottavino and re-signs Brandon Nimmo.
Featuring a roster replete with plenty of potential impact fantasy options, things didn’t quite go as planned in New York, as the team finished with a 75-87 record and dealt several veterans at the trade deadline, among them Verlander, Robertson, Pham, and Max Scherzer.
The Mets haven’t had the same type of offseason so far, but have brought in some quality Major League options in Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor (trade) as well as free agent signings like Harrison Bader, Joey Wendle, Michael Tonkin, and Luis Severino.
Just how the Mets fair in 2024 remains to be seen, but like any other club, they still have some potentially undervalued fantasy sleepers to consider—as well as some players fantasy managers should perhaps stay away from.
Sleepers
2023 Stats: (185 PA): .244 AVG, 21 runs scored, 11 HR, 26 RBI, 1 SB
One of the biggest beneficiaries of New York’s decision to trade veterans at the deadline in July, Stewart saw considerable playing time in the season’s second half. Of his 185 plate appearances, 160 came from August 1 onwards, the day after the Mets decided to trade veteran outfielder Mark Canha.
Stewart was largely productive in those plate appearances, or all his plate appearances during the season, really. Certainly much more than his .244 batting average would suggest and to the point where he might warrant a further extended look in 2024.
Of course, that last part is entirely speculative, but it’s hard to ignore the 30-year-old’s production, even in a reasonably smaller sample size.
He logged a 12.3% barrel rate and a .339 xwOBA while registering a 44.3% hard-hit rate. Perhaps most notably, he was making that kind of quality contact while not offering at pitches outside the zone too much with a 25.8% chase rate.
Overall swings and misses were still a bit of a problem for Stewart. He struck out 30.3% of the time and finished with a 35.8% whiff rate. Still, Stewart logged a 130 wRC+ for the Mets last season, and considering the team has added more glove-first options like Harrison Bader and Joey Wendle so far, he seems poised for a larger role, though again, that’s all speculative.
It’s also worth noting that among Mets players with at least 100 plate appearances last season, eight players topped a league average wRC+. Of those players, three are no longer on the roster. It’s also worth noting that this same Mets team was outscored by 19 different clubs last season.
Even with Nimmo and Starling Marte back in the fold and Harrison Bader joining the club, there should be plenty of opportunity for plate appearances for Stewart, especially with Vogelbach’s departure opening up the designated hitter position. Furthermore, if the Mets’ struggles bleed over into 2024 and they continue to trade veterans, Stewart should only move further up the lineup, seeing his fantasy upside grow considerably in the process.
2023 Stats: (223 PA): .211 AVG, 19 runs scored, 9 HR, 22 RBI, 1 SB
Like Stewart, Vientos saw considerable playing time for the Mets in 2023, particularly in the second half. Overall, he hit .211 with a .253 on-base percentage, nine home runs, and a stolen base in 233 plate appearances.
Nothing about the 24-year-old’s surface-level metrics catches the eye too much, but a look at his underlying metrics shows a player with a penchant for making loud contact, what with a 10.7% barrel rate and a 51% hard-hit rate. That’s certainly not surprising given the respective 65 and 50 present grades for raw power and game power (and 70 and 60 future grades) that FanGraphs gave Vientos in the publication’s breakdown of the top Mets prospects back in March.
Also like Stewart, there is some swing-and-miss concern here, or at least there was in 2023 for the infielder, who struck out 30.5% of the time with a 36.5% chase rate and a 36.7% whiff rate. But, all that being said, his power potential makes him an intriguing fantasy option in New York.
The Mets could certainly use more lineup help, and Vientos could be just that. And while his path to playing time isn’t as clear as someone like Stewart’s, there are still plenty of potential avenues to regular plate appearances, either early in the season, later, or both.
Among those avenues include third base. Brett Baty (.300 xwOBA, .598 OPS in 389 plate appearances) didn’t exactly tear the cover off the ball last season, while Ronny Mauricio tore his ACL in December. The team did sign Joey Wendle, but he logged a 47 wRC+ in 318 plate appearances for Miami last year and has never posted a xwOBA north of .310 in a season.
There’s certainly a (speculative) world in which Vientos is the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman. If that’s the case, he’ll likely be a popular sleeper pick heading into the season, and rightfully so given the power upside and regular plate appearances.
But even if he doesn’t see the lion’s share of starts at third base right away, the infielder’s ability to also play first base could help him see regular starts if New York was ever to (again, speculatively speaking) trade Alonso, who is a free agent after the 2024 season per Spotrac.
Busts
2023 Stats (111.1 IP): 4.12 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 96 K, 8 W
A quality streaming option at times for fantasy managers in standard-sized leagues, and a solid rotation option for those in deeper formats, Houser turned in one of his best seasons to date in 2023, pitching to a 4.12 ERA and a 3.99 FIP in 111.1 innings while striking out 7.76 batters per nine frames while surrendering just 2.75 walks and 1.05 homers per nine innings. The FIP and strikeouts per nine innings were Houser’s best metrics in those respective statistical categories since 2019, and his walks per nine innings rate was the lowest of his career.
Acquired by the Mets and former Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns in a trade with Milwaukee, Houser is currently part of a rotation mix headlines by Kodai Senga, Severino, and Quintana, as well as Tylor Megill, José Butto, and David Peterson.
Given that Houser has generally found success more by limiting quality contact and inducing grounders, rather than missing bats at a high rate, a quality fantasy streaming option is probably his absolute ceiling fantasy-wise—especially considering he’s also going from a 92-win Brewers team to a Mets team that might not be as competitive.
But it’s not just the team’s records that make the Mets a bad fantasy fit, it’s the switch in infield defenses.
Houser finished in the 70th percentile or better in both walk rate (7.1%, 70th percentile) and ground ball rate (47.1%, 73rd percentile). Those are rather ideal numbers, especially for a pitcher who ranked in the fourth percentile in whiff rate and the fifth percentile in hard-hit rate.
They were also particularly ideal considering the Brewers infielders generally turned his grounders into outs.
Last season, Milwaukee infielders finished with the following collective OAA numbers by position:
The Mets? Their infield defense wasn’t quite as successful.
So that’s not an ideal situation. The silver lining (of sorts) here is that the change in home ballparks shouldn’t be a significant negative. Per Statcast, American Family Field’s overall park factor for the last three years sits at 97 while Citi Field checks in at 96. The two clubs differ more drastically in home run park factor, with a 109 number for Milwaukee and a 95 number for New York.
Still, swapping out Milwaukee’s infielders for New York’s isn’t exactly a recipe for success fantasy-wise for Houser, and makes him strictly a deeper league rotation option at this point, particularly if the Mets struggle to supply pitcher wins consistently.
2023 Stats: (648 PA): .270 AVG, 75 runs scored, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 10 SB
Last month I wrote about how TJ Friedl’s 2023 season in Cincinnati with the Reds was probably a best-case scenario given his lower quality of contact metrics, and how some statistical regression was due if they continued. Thanks in part to high chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate metrics, Friedl hit .279 with a .352 on-base percentage and 18 home runs despite just a .289 xwOBA.
Of course, his home ballpark, the hitter-friendly launch pad that is Great American Ball Park, also had something to do with that.
Heading into 2024, or looking back on 2023 rather, Jeff McNeil is in a similar boat, statistically speaking.
The duo have eerily similar numbers, and probably similar statistical regression (to a degree) coming their way in 2024 if that type of contact continues. If McNeil’s quality of contact metrics from 2023 carry over into 2024, however, he’ll be at much more of a disadvantage fantasy-wise compared to Friedl.
On the one hand, Great American Ball Park won’t be there to help pad his numbers at the plate, even with less-than-ideal xwOBA and barrel rate metrics. The Reds’ home stadium has the third-highest overall park factor of any field in the last three years, per Statcast, and leads the league with the highest park factor for home runs by a considerable margin.
*Citi Field ranked 12th due to ties, but 25 other Major League stadiums had a higher overall park factor.
On the other hand, McNeil isn’t anywhere near the stolen base threat that Friedl is. The infielder stole 10 bases in 2023, but that was a new career high and the infielder hasn’t finished above the 51st percentile in Statcasat’s sprint speed metric. in any of the last three seasons. Friedl, meanwhile, stole 27 bases for the Reds in 2023.
Without a hitter-friendly home venue for half his games, and without the stolen base numbers to help buoy his fantasy contributions, McNeil looks like a second base option to stay away from in all but deeper fantasy formats next season.