What’s up everybody! The 2025 MLB season is almost upon us, and with that comes ultra-high expectations for players in fantasy leagues and pro organizations alike. Today, I give you one bold player prediction for each MLB team in both the AL and NL East.
The criteria were pretty simple–think of player predictions that are adventurous yet don’t necessarily have an unrealistic chance of occurring during the 2025 season. In all, if I get one correct per division, I’ll be pretty happy. Let’s dive right in!
American League East
Boston Red Sox: Luis Guerrero Assumes the Closer Role Before the All-Star Break
The 24-year-old flamethrower has been nothing short of impressive since being selected in the 17th round of the 2021 MLB Draft by Chaim Bloom & Company. His four-seam fastball has found lots of success in the upper third of the strike zone, sitting around 97.5 mph (94th percentile average fastball velo in 2024) while topping out at 100.
Guerrero’s whiff-ability is what sets him apart. All three of his plus-graded pitches generated extreme whiff rates in Worcester last year, with his four-seamer, slider, and splitter earning whiff rates of 33.1%, 37.1%, and 51.8%, respectively. He also owns a 12.6 career K/9 in the minor leagues and 13.4 K/9 in Triple-A (59 IP).
In his cup of coffee with Boston last season (10 IP), Guerrero posted a 0.80 WHIP, allowed no earned runs, and struck out nine batters while keeping his walks in check (5.6%). He’s also managed to strike out nine batters in five spring innings of work thus far.
Luis Guerrero's 3Ks pic.twitter.com/wYDVb54g1v
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 22, 2025
Red Sox current projected closer, Liam Hendriks, has mightily struggled since returning from beating cancer and rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, allowing six earned runs (including two home runs) in four spring innings thus far. Most notably, his velo has been down quite a few ticks on all of his offerings.
Bottom line: Guerrero has the velo, certainly the stuff, the minor-league track record, and the whiff-ability that a modern-day closer needs. It’s whether or not manager Alex Cora is willing to give the youngster the keys to the bullpen this early in his career, and I think that does happen before the All-Star break.
Baltimore Orioles: Heston Kjerstad is Their Most Productive Outfielder
Kjerstad, 26, is currently not projected to be a starter on Opening Day, barring any injuries, per FanGraphs’ Roster Resource, and that’s exactly why this is a bold prediction.
He’s raked at every level he’s played at, and last year was no exception:
| Games (league) | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | XBH |
| 62 (MiLB) | .303 | .401 | .584 | .986 | 32 |
| 39 (MLB) | .253 | .351 | .394 | .745 | 6 |
Throughout the bulk of his playing time (21 games between late June and July), Kjerstad slashed .291/.391/.491/.882, had a 150 wRC+, and collected five of his six XBHs. He simply just needs some consistent ABs in the Orioles lineup.
Kjerstad projects as a solid corner defender with good arm strength and speed. I like him a lot in left field, especially with how we know things can get with Tyler O’Neill (injuries). However, he can also play RF well (+1 OAA, +1 DRS in 2024) if the O’s want to move Colton Cowser back to LF where he proved to be a fantastic defender (+8 OAA, +4 DRS) in 2024.
Bottom line: Between his ceiling being significantly higher than some of the other bats around him, O’Neill’s major injury concerns, and Mullins’ lack of offensive production over the past two years, Kjerstad is primed for a significant load of ABs, and I don’t think he disappoints.
New York Yankees: Cody Bellinger Hits 30+ HR
Bellinger’s swing in Yankee Stadium is a dream come true for New York fans. He was projected to hit six more xHR (from 18 to 24) in 2024 if he played at Yankee Stadium last year, thanks to his new best friend, the short porch. Throughout his career, Bellinger has pulled the ball 43% of the time. That’s 5.8% above the MLB average.
With Aaron Judge presumably batting before him, opposing arms are going to attack Bellinger head-on and/or try to induce a ground ball for a double play after they walk Judge. The issue is that Bellinger’s bat naturally counters in multiple ways.
He posted a combined 12 run value against fastballs, sinkers, and changeups in 2024 with 40.1% and 37.3% hard-hit rates against fastball types, respectively. His ability to rake versus double-play inducing pitches (SI: .341 AVG, .512 SLG / CH: .294 AVG, .471 SLG) is also key here.
On top of that, he was under the baseball 36.6% of the time (MLB average: 24.8%) and hit a fly ball 35% of the time (MLB average: 23.8%) last season. Not to mention, his launch angle, hard hit rate, and barrel rate all slightly ticked up last season.
Bottom line: Easy pull-side pop + more favorable pitch types + a short porch = more HR for Belli.
Toronto Blue Jays: Max Scherzer Surpasses 4.0 fWAR in His Age-40 Season
Mad Max is no doubt a first-ballot Hall of Famer when it’s all said and done. Yet, at age 40, it looks like he’s not slowing down. He took a one-year, $15 million deal with Toronto this winter to prove he can still be a legit top-of-the-rotation threat, and so far this spring, he’s looked fantastic.
In his last start versus Detroit, Scherzer struck out six batters while generating 13 (!!) whiffs in 3.1 innings. He’s struck out a total of 14 batters while generating 27 whiffs in 9.0 spring innings thus far, which is absolutely insane.
His new favorite weapon? The changeup, which showcased +3 iVB, +2 HB, a 50 CSW%, and generated four whiffs on seven swings against Pittsburgh alone.
Max Scherzer racks up six strikeouts in a scoreless outing 😤 #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/ujIyMFMNKF
— MLB (@MLB) March 8, 2025
Bottom line: If his spring results are any indication of what he’s going to look like in-season, the Jays’ rotation is going to be loaded. Is it a bit crazy to say he’ll go for 4+ fWAR based on some spring training data? Perhaps. But these aren’t called “bold predictions” for nothing.
Tampa Bay Rays: Joe Boyle Finishes Top 5 in AL Cy Young Voting
I’m going to be honest. As a Red Sox fan, I can say I’m legitimately frightened of what the Rays’ pitching lab can do with Joe Boyle. He’s Tyler Glasnow 2.0 just waiting to happen.
Boyle’s SL (37.9%) and CU (41.7%) generated insane amounts of whiffs in 2024. He limits barrels, posting a 4.0% barrel rate in 2024 and 2.5% in 2023. Plus, as if his 96th percentile average fastball velo (97.7 mph in 2024) wasn’t good enough, Boyle has posted the third-highest spring velo boost (+2.6 mph), trailing fellow AL RHPs Richard Fitts (+3.1) and Triston McKenzie (+3.4). He literally sat 100.3 mph in his first start of the spring against the Pirates last month!
As a 10 K/9 arm in the majors (13 K/9 in MiLB), his ability to punch people out isn’t in question. For Boyle, it’s ALL about command. He needs to figure out the egregious walk problem he has, and if he does, he automatically ascends into the upper-tier AL starting pitcher conversation. Let’s take a look at Glasnow’s BB/9 comp when he came over from Pittsburgh:
| Name | Before | After |
| Glasnow (PIT) | 5.8 | 2.8 |
| Boyle (OAK) | 6.4 | TBD |
So far this spring, Boyle started by only walking one batter in his first 4.1 IP. After his last start, he’s allowed 3 BB in 7.1 total IP, which is good for a 3.7 BB/9… a noteworthy change! He’s also struck out 10 batters over that stretch.
Bottom line: If (and when) the Rays unlock Boyle’s potential in the strike zone, we’re looking at an elite starting pitching talent for years to come. Elite velo, legit whiff-ability, limits barrels, and a nasty multi-pitch mix. Buy his stock now.
National League East
New York Mets: Clay Holmes is an Ace
Overreacting about spring training stats and data is easily my favorite preseason activity. I mean, what else is there to do throughout camp?
Holmes has thrown the ball so well as a starter, it looks like he could be going into his 10th year in that role. He’s allowed just two hits and four walks over 9.2 innings while striking out 12 over that span.
Not to mention, his last start was among the best we’ve seen this spring altogether:
- 8 K / 13 whiffs in 3.0 IP vs. WSH
- Sweeper: +3 HB, +1 iVB
- Slider: +2 HB, 50% CSW
- (New!) Changeup: 6/8 swings for whiffs, 50% CSW
Holmes now utilizes a six-pitch mix (SI/CH/SW/SL/FC/FF) that both generates whiffs and induces soft contact/ground balls. I’m all in on his stock moving forward in 2025, especially on his new kick-change:
Clay Holmes, Back-to-Back Kick Changes. 😷 pic.twitter.com/HvTG0biiCM
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 9, 2025
Bottom line: If his last start is even a sliver of what we could see out of Holmes as a starter, the Mets have found themselves a diamond in the rough front-end starter.
Philadelphia Phillies: Cristopher Sánchez Finishes Top 5 in NL Cy Young Voting
Perhaps I should’ve waited to post this after my fantasy drafts–I’m really high on Sanchez heading into 2025. He produced elite metrics all around in 2024, whether it be Chase%, GB%, extension, HH%, Barrel%, and so on. You name it, he had it last year.
Sanchez came into camp with the goal of increasing his velo and whiff-ability and has so far done exactly that. His arsenal’s velo journey over the last three years has been fun to watch. Here’s an example with his sinker:
- 2023: 92.1 mph
- 2024: 94.5 mph (+2.4)
- 2025: 97.0 mph (+2.5)*
*2025 spring training numbers remain unofficial
His 2.5 mph jump ranks fourth among starting pitchers this spring (first among NL SPs). To make matters worse for opposing hitters, his already-elite changeup got even deadlier. In his most recent start against the Pirates, the CH showcased +2 HB, +3 iVB in three innings of work, helping Sanchez generate eight whiffs and four Ks.
Cristopher Sánchez's 2Ks in the 1st.
97.2 mph Fastball & Wicked Changeup. pic.twitter.com/WFaJ2uUEMw
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 7, 2025
Thanks to these impressive arsenal refinements, plus a filthy SL and FC in his back pocket, Sanchez has struck out 40% of the batters he’s faced this spring and is on his way to superstardom.
Bottom line: With the major addition of whiff-ability, Sanchez has all the tools he needs to become a true left-handed ace and top 5 NL Cy Young finalist in 2025 and beyond.
Washington Nationals: James Wood Starts the All-Star Game in LF
Let’s be real, it’s not a question about talent. Wood is a 6’7″, 22-year-old kid who is really athletic, is in the upper quartile for speed, and absolutely rakes. The defense was questionable, but I think his raw athleticism and maturity will contribute to a step forward in 2025.
When it comes to All-Star Game voting, the real appeal is in the bat. Let’s take a look at his 2024 numbers:
| Games (league) | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | XBH | SB |
| 52 (MiLB) | .353 | .463 | .595 | 1.058 | 26 | 10 |
| 79 (MLB) | .264 | .354 | .427 | .781 | 26 | 14 |
He’s by far the best bat Washington has rostered, and he hasn’t even scratched the surface yet. Wood produced top percentile metrics like average EV (92.8 mph), hard hit rate (52%), and chase rate (21%), all while walking at an 11.6% clip in his debut year. Sounds a little like another LHH corner outfielder that Washington has produced in recent years…
111.6 mph!
Red-hot James Wood launches ANOTHER homer for the @Nationals, his Spring Training-leading third in six games pic.twitter.com/FsyNM8m55A
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) February 29, 2024
Bottom line: If Wood can put on a show like he’s done for us the past few years in the minor leagues, he should cruise his way into the starting LF spot at the All-Star Game.
Atlanta Braves: Angel Perdomo is the Next “Minter-LHP” for ATL
A.J. Minter leaving Atlanta for their notorious New York rival stung for Braves fans, but they have a new left-hander to get really excited about.
Perdomo is a 6’8″, 269-pound demon relief arm with a 6.9 foot extension and big-time strikeout stuff (career 14.2 K/9 in 48.2 major league IP). He missed all of 2024 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and looks to have an impactful return in 2025.
Last time he was healthy, Perdomo posted a 3.72 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 13.7 K/9, and .204 BAA in 29 innings (2023) on the verge of breaking out. Most notably, his K/9 in 2023 ranked second among all NL left-handed relievers (min. 20 IP) that season.
Like Minter, Perdomo is a FA/CH southpaw who utilizes an additional horizontal weapon (SL instead of FC) to generate whiffs. Each of their fastballs spin in the upper percentile of the majors, their velo is in the same range, they strike out a lot of hitters, and ironically had nearly identical Whiff% and Avg EVs the last time both were healthy in 2023.
Better look at #Braves LHP Angel Perdomo. He averaged 14.2 K/9 in 52 appearances for Milwaukee and Pittsburgh and really seemed to have turned a corner with the Pirates pre-surgery in 2023. pic.twitter.com/Jjj5CHGlyk
— Grant McAuley (@grantmcauley) February 15, 2025
Bottom line: The whiff-ability is there, and while the spring hasn’t necessarily showcased his best stuff, Perdomo is primed for a breakout year in place of Minter’s departure.
Miami Marlins: Xavier Edwards is Not Just For Real, He’s a 5.0+ fWAR Player
Ask any of my early followers on Twitter, I am a certified XE9 truther. It’s hard not to like Edwards due to his ability to produce at the plate at every single level. Here are his total numbers from 2024:
| Games (league) | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | XBH |
| 26 (MiLB) | .330 | .376 | .450 | .826 | 10 |
| 70 (MLB) | .328 | .397 | .423 | .820 | 18 |
The switch-hitter not only swings well from both sides but also makes great swing decisions. Edwards walks quite often (10.9%), limits Ks (17.2%), and rarely whiffs (16.9%) or chases (24.8%). On top of these numbers, he boosted his hard-hit rate by nearly 11% last season.
The key for him is to improve his defense. He posted a -10 OAA and -8 DRS at shortstop last season despite being an above-average athlete. Ironically, -7 OAA came from playing the position straight-up. I believe last year was a semi-fluke and that he will make a sizeable jump defensively at SS this year, not necessarily into an above-average glove but into a guy who makes the routine play. There is also a chance that Miami acquires a shortstop in exchange for Sandy Alcantara whenever they decide to deal him, and Edwards goes back to a more favorable position at 2B.
Posting 2.2 fWAR last season, I feel that with the bat being legit, plus doubling the amount of games he plays and improving his defense, Edwards comfortably slots into being a 5+ fWAR player.
Bottom line: He’s athletic, has good wheels, is one of the best baserunners in the league, and constantly produces with the bat. If the defense comes along in Year 2 like I think it will, there is no question that Edwards will become the best position player in the Marlins’ organization by the end of the season.
On a personal note, thank you for reading my first ever article here at Pitcher List! I hope you enjoyed it, and I can’t wait to finish this series with the Central and West division Bold Predictions. See you all in the next one!
Photo courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)