We are officially less than a week away from College Baseball’s Opening Day. For draft nerds like me, this is one of the most important holidays of the year. It is the first time we get to lay eyes on some of the most exciting prospects in the sport. We get to see who made significant strength gains. We get to see if any pitchers added another pitch, or gained a tick of velocity. All of this is now possible because Baseball is officially back!
With all that being said, we are going to start at the top of the board, with my favorites to go #1 overall from the college ranks in the 2025 draft. I am sure there will be risers that make a name for themselves, but as of today, these are top picks that will be appointment television during opening day!
2025 Draft Prospects to Know
Jace Laviollette – OF, Texas A&M
The best player on the #1 team in the country? Easy choice for preseason favorite to go #1 overall. Laviollette burst on the scene immediately as a force in the middle of Texas A&M’s lineup as a true freshman. During that season, he showed impressive tools hitting 21 home runs with a .287 AVG. Those numbers significantly improved in 2024, where he hit 29 home runs, with 16 doubles, while upping his average to .305. He also showed significant improvement with his swing decisions raising his walk total from 48 in 2023 to 64 in 2024. Laviollette showcases exactly what many MLB organizations value in a modern-day power hitter, plus power with plus plate awareness.
When looking at the data, it will come as no surprise that his exit data is elite. In the 2024 season, he averaged 95.6 mph exit velocity, with a 64.5% hard hit rate, and a 32.9% barrel rate. He has an impressive ability to hit the ball consistently hard in the air. While the exit data is impressive, there are some concerns surrounding Laviollette’s contact abilities. During the 2024 season, he struck out in 24% of his at-bats with a total of 81 in 68 games. That is more than ideal for a #1 overall pick. But what is promising is his contact rate was 71.7%, which is a little better than a 24% strikeout rate would entail. Those should be small approach adjustments that could be improved with increased maturity.
As a power hitter, you can get away with some swing-and-miss, as long as you don’t chase. As I always like to say, “you can whiff, if you don’t chase. You can chase, if you don’t whiff. You simply can’t do both.” Laviollette’s improved walks were shown in the data as well. He only swung at 17.3% of pitches outside the strike zone, which shows impressive plate discipline. If Laviollete showcases improved contact skills, he could lock up the #1 pick early in the year. But if not, he has the requisite power and plate discipline to be a safe bet to be a productive modern-day power hitter.
Cam Cannarella – OF, Clemson
Cam Cannarella has the opportunity to be this season’s Travis Bazzana. Coming into the 2024 season, Bazzana showcased impressive bat-to-ball skills but was limited in the power department with only 17 home runs through his first two seasons in college. Once the dust of the 2024 season had settled, he had hit 28 home runs and solidified himself as the top player in the class. Cannarella is in an eerily similar position.
Through two seasons at Clemson, Cannarella has showcased impressive tools. He has hit a combined .363 with only 83 strikeouts in 117 games, all while playing elite defense. But with that production comes only 18 home runs in a hitter-friendly home field. So while the bat-to-ball skills (83.2% contact rate), athleticism, and defense all grade as plus, there are still concerns about the potential power output at the next level with wood. He could change that narrative quickly if the power shows up the same way it did for Bazzana.
Cannarella’s power did progress in the 2024 season as he upped his home run total from seven to 11, and his ISO from .172 to 224. That did come with a regression in the batting average from .388 to .337, but he played all of 2024 with an injured shoulder, which was not revealed until after the season. The shoulder definitely impacted his speed, as he stole zero bases in 2024 after 24 in 2023, but how much did it hamper his power? He averaged 90.4 mph exit velocity on the season, which is above what you would expect for only 11 home runs. The power will be the only question Cannarella will have to answer in the 2025 season. His hit tool and athleticism combo is gonna keep him in the 1-1 conversation all year, but he will really push Laviollette with a jump in the power department.
Jamie Arnold – LHP, Florida State
Arnold entered 2024 with a lot of hype after an impressive summer on the Cape in the summer of ’23. He completely lived up to the hype and more, making him the early top pitcher in the class. During the 2024 season, he pitched to a 2.98 ERA with 159 strikeouts in 105.2 Innings. With those impressive swing-and-miss numbers, and a 35.4% strikeout rate, he also showed plus command with a 5.8% walk rate. That combination of stuff and ability to fill up the strikezone should allow him to put up Hagen Smith/Chase Burns/Paul Skenes-level numbers in 2025.
Arnold’s best pitch as it currently stands is his fastball. It does not light up the radar averaging only 93.7 mph, but due to his low release, and -4.28 VAA on the pitch, it can be dominant when he locates it well. It featured a 28.6% whiff rate in the 2024 season, which is elite for a fastball, but his numbers in the upper third of the zone are freakish where it featured a 47.5% whiff rate. The fastball is a true rocket ship at the top of the zone, and it puts hitters in a ton of conflict.
Outside of the fastball, Arnold also flashes a plus slider. In the 2024 season, it generated a 41.8% whiff rate, with a 37.1% chase rate. The combination of the fastball and slider makes for an extremely uncomfortable at-bat for hitters, which shows in his impressive strikeout numbers. If there is anything Arnold needs to improve on it is a third pitch. His changeup generated a mere 18.8% whiff rate, with an 11.1% chase rate. At this point in time, the offering isn’t an effective option in college baseball, let alone professional baseball. The two-pitch mix is enough to dominate college hitters, and quite frankly probably also pro hitters, but for him to reach his ceiling, the third pitch will be a big piece in that equation.
Aiva Arquette – MIF, Oregon State
Arquette has massive shoes to fill as he will be replacing 2024 #1 overall pick, Travis Bazzana, at second base for the Beavers. He is transferring to Oregon State from Washington, but comes in a similar situation to Bazzana entering last season. As previously mentioned, Bazzana had only hit 17 home runs in two years. Well, Arquette comes into this season with 17 career home runs. He hasn’t produced as well in the average department but hit .325 last year showcasing impressive bat-to-ball skills. What is most exciting about Arquette is the underlying data.
For a guy who only hit 12 home runs last season, he averaged 93 mph average exit velocity. Combine that with a 55.6% hard-hit rate, and you have plus raw power in the profile. The main roadblock is hitting the ball consistently in the air. With that impressive batted ball data, he only had a 26.5% barrel rate with an average 11.6° launch angle. If he can start to become more consistent in hitting the ball in the air, he will hit 25 home runs this spring.
When it comes to swing decisions, Arquette has some improvements to make. He only walked 17 times in 48 games, but with that came a 26.8% chase rate. So he doesn’t have a major chase problem, just a hyper-aggressive approach. Combine that with an 80.8% contact rate, and you have a promising combination for a riser. If he makes the strides he is capable of, he will have his name in the conversation for the number 1 overall pick.
Tyler Bremner – RHP, University of California, Santa Barbara
While Jamie Arnold is the rocket ship, Tyler Bremner is the safe option. Bremner as it currently stands has the best combination of three above-average pitches with plus command, which makes him as safe of a bet as any to perform at the next level. During the 2024 season, Bremner pitched to a 2.51 ERA with 105 strikeouts in 88.2 innings. He struck out 30.5% of the batters he faced, while only walking 6.3% of hitters. Impressive numbers for the sophomore, and he can definitely improve upon his season in 2025.
Bremner’s best pitch is his change-up, which gives him an effective out pitch against lefties at all levels. It is a borderline elite pitch as it generated a 44.3% whiff rate and a 42.0% chase rate. He is able to command it for strikes, as well as as a strikeout pitch, which makes the offering even more effective. His fastball grades out as above average as it flashes upper 90s, but doesn’t generate a ton of whiff at only 20.1%. He also throws a slider that generated a 33.6% whiff rate and a 40.9% chase rate. If Bremner can improve the swing-and-miss quality on his fastball, he will have a legit argument for #1 overall.
Nolan Schubart – OF, Oklahoma State
Is it possible to fix a significant swing-and-miss problem? That is the question surrounding Nolan Schubart. The raw power is by far the best in the class, and the overall production has been impressive. But there are serious concerns about the ability to make consistent contact.
In two seasons, Schubart has put up arguably the best numbers in the class. He has hit .352 over two seasons, including .370 last spring, and has 40 career home runs. With those numbers have come a lot of strikeouts. He has 137 in 110 games, with a worrisome 64.1% contact rate during the 2024 season. When he makes contact, more times than not it falls for a hit, but how often he makes contact is the bigger concern.
We have seen MLB organizations avoid these types of players in recent drafts, which will ultimately hurt Schubart’s value. While he has an impressive 97.1 mph average exit velocity, a 65.1% hard-hit rate, and a 40.7% barrel rate, the swing-and-miss will only get worse at the next level. The other issue is it is not an easy approach fix. He only chased at 19.8% of pitches outside the strikezone and had a 30.6% in-zone whiff rate. While you can get away with swing and miss if you don’t chase out of the strike zone, it is worrisome as the competition improves. If Schubart shows even slight improvement in the swing-and-miss department, he will skyrocket up draft boards. The raw tools and production are impressive, but there is still some much-needed seasoning.
Photos by Texas A&M and Florida State University Athletics | By Carlos Leano