If you’re of the mind of looking for the bulk of your fantasy team’s stolen base production from one player – maybe two – later in drafts, options can sometimes be plentiful. Just look at Maikel Garcia and Jacob Young (more on him in a bit) last season.
However, finding the right players can be tricky. Opportunity and potential playing time matter. So does the team the player is on, and how productive that team’s lineup is. A whole litany of factors.
With that in mind, here are some late-round stolen base sleepers to consider in drafts this spring.
*All ADP data via NFBC.
Current ADP: 309.72*
Opportunity, also opportunity. Did I mention the word opportunity? Well, technically speaking, “opportunities” is the more accurate word here in describing what’s key to Jacob Young reaching his fantasy ceiling in 2025.
The 25-year-old outfielder hit .256 with a .316 on-base percentage, three home runs, and 33 stolen bases in 521 plate appearances last season. He added 75 runs scored (more on that later) and 36 RBI, but the stolen bases are the real star of the show here when breaking down the outfielder’s stat line. Young, it should be noted, also finished in the 97th percentile in Statcast’s sprint speed metric last season. He’s also a regular starter in Washington and should see plenty of plate appearances this season. Ergo, the opportunities.
And while he finished in the 15th percentile or lower in xwOBA, xSLG, barrel rate and hard-hit rate, the 25-year-old’s place in the Nationals’ lineup should help him log a quality runs scored tally when all is said in done considering Washington not only added Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Bell and Paul DeJong this offseason, but will also get full seasons in the majors from Dylan Crews and James Wood. Even if Young is regularly hitting in the bottom third of manager Dave Martinez’s lineup, he should see plenty of run-scoring opportunities, particularly with his ability to take second base with so many stolen bases.
Current ADP: 219.39*
Speaking of opportunity, Gelof looks set to see the lion’s share of the starts at second base for the Athletics this season. The infielder turned in an extremely promising season as a rookie in 2023, hitting .276 with a .337 on-base percentage, a 132 wRC+, 14 home runs, and 14 stolen bases in 300 plate appearances for the American League West club. However, the 24-year-old’s average, on-base percentage and wRC+ dropped off considerably last season, falling to .211, .270 and 82 respectively. He also saw his barrel rate fall from 11.1% to 8.8% and his xwOBA go from .333 to .271.
Still, in part because of the consistent plate appearances as the team’s second baseman and in part due to an increase in total plate appearances (Gelof logged 547 total last season at the major league level), his counting stats actually took a considerable step forward. The infielder collected 17 home runs and 25 stolen bases last season in those aforementioned 547 plate appearances despite his quality of contact metrics dropping across the board and his strikeout rate rising from 27.3% to 34.4%.
All told, it gives him a fairly solid fantasy floor heading into 2025 if he can still see the majority of the starts at second base for the Athletics. Furthermore, he brings plenty of upside if his quality of contact metrics can move even a bit closer to where they were in 2023 compared to where they were last season.
Current ADP: 223.43*
The Arizona Diamondbacks finished in the middle of the pack with 119 stolen bases, but most of their stolen base production came via two players: Corbin Carroll and Jake McCarthy. McCarthy ran often, stealing 25 bases in 142 games (and 495 plate appearances). He hit .285 with a .349 on-base percentage on the season, adding eight home runs as well.
Right off the bat, McCarthy’s track record of stealing bases regularly checks off one box. Another is checked off when you consider he gets on base plenty, something which should only lead to more stolen base chances. The 27-year-old hit .285 and finished in the 79th percentile league-wide with a .265 xBA. And while he didn’t walk all that much (logging a 6.3% walk rate), the outfielder didn’t swing and miss all that much, posting a 17.6% whiff rate and a 15.8% strikeout rate on the season. Both metrics finished in the 83rd percentile or better, for what it’s worth.
Like Young, McCarthy should also bring a fairly decent floor from a runs scored standpoint. Of course, that’s an added bonus here when considering the stolen base potential, but it certainly doesn’t hurt playing regularly in one of baseball’s best lineups.
Current ADP: 490.37*
Rojas doesn’t quite have the same clear pathway to playing time that Young and McCarthy do. The Phillies signed Max Kepler in the offseason, and Nick Castellanos and Brandon Marsh return in the outfield. Still, with Marsh struggling against left-handed pitching last season, there’s a pathway to at least a part-time role for Rojas this season.
And while he’s purely a bench option for those looking for stolen bases, he’s worth starting in the right lineups (those loaded with power hitters) when he does play. The outfielder stole 25 bases in 120 games and 363 plate appearances for the Phillies.
If Rojas were ever to step into an everyday role for an extended period, he’d be very much worth a look as a starting outfielder for fantasy managers in leagues with 12 or more teams, particularly those with five starting outfield spots. If Young’s fantasy ceiling is raised a bit due to the counting stat potential in an improved Nationals lineup, Rojas’ fantasy ceiling would increase tenfold if he was suddenly starting full-time for the Phillies.
The stolen base potential is obviously there, but the outfielder makes more than enough contact – his strikeout rate finished at just 19.0% last season – to give him additional upside in other fantasy scoring categories, given how, well, good the Phillies lineup is. Last season, only four teams – Arizona, the Dodgers, Yankees, and Baltimore – outscored the Phillies. Philadelphia also finished in the top five in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and wOBA last season. Furthermore, just six teams saw more plate appearances with runners in scoring position than the National League East franchise last season.