A starting pitcher taken in the late rounds who then becomes a reliable workhorse for the majority of the season is often one of the most rewarding things in fantasy baseball.
While the near 50/50 injury risk for all pitchers can turn selecting an ace in an early round into a nerve-racking process, late round flyers often carry with them little risk and all the reward. If they don’t end up panning out to be the arm that you expected, then you can drop them early in the season without feeling like you wasted much draft capital. And if they do pan out? Well then, usually, you strike gold.
Every year there are at least a handful of arms taken in the last few rounds of drafts who end up being just this type of fantasy standout. These candidates typically emerge early in the year, so having grabbed them in the last rounds of the draft rather than scrambling to see if they are available afterwards can be a true difference maker. In 2024, for example, pitchers such as Jared Jones and Luis Gil were on the fringe of being last round picks or post-draft waiver wire claims. Those who decided to go ahead and draft either one of them rather than take the chance on the waiver wire ended up being rewarded handsomely.
When trying to identify which pitchers will become this year’s late round gems, targeting arms based on certain categories can help zero in on the value that everyone else is overlooking. If you stacked your lineup with all of the hitting categories, have some nice high-strikeout pitchers with upside, but might potentially be lacking in the WHIP category, for example, then make sure not to forget about these pitchers towards the end of your draft.
(Note: “Late Round” is being defined as players with a current ADP of 300 or higher)
*All ADP data via NFBC
Nestor Cortes – 310.18 ADP*
2024 (174.1 IP): 1.15 WHIP, 3.77 ERA, 9-10 W-L, 162 K
Nestor Cortes arrived in Milwaukee this offseason with a bit of a chip on his shoulder from how his tenure in New York came to an end. The former Yankee was not shy last season about vocalizing his displeasure over a move to the bullpen late in the year, clearly preferring to have stayed in the starting rotation and having felt he had done more than enough to do so.
He was unwilling to let his emotions affect his performance regardless. Over his next two appearances following that initial ‘demotion’, Cortes threw 11 innings while giving up only one run and racking up 15 strikeouts. For everyone watching either in the stands or on television, it was obvious that he was pitching with extra fuel. Pitching angry, even — but with controlled anger. It was impressive.
Knowing his character (consummate professional) it wouldn’t be surprising to see Cortes enter 2025 feeling that he has to prove that he still belongs in a starting rotation, providing extra incentive in the back of the mind of a pitcher who already has proven consistently since 2021 that he has what it takes. Known for having good command, Cortes has posted an above-average walk rate, WHIP, and PLV in each of the last four seasons.
That 5.5% walk rate last season was 25th among all qualifying pitchers. Even when Cortes seemingly lost some command in 2023 and inflated his walk rate to 7.5%, he was still below the MLB average (7.7%). The 5.27 PLV that Cortes posted last season was 30th among all qualifying pitchers, and it is the stickiest of all his statistics as can be seen from the table.
Cortes primarily relies on a four-seamer and cutter, each with differing movement profiles that make it difficult for a batter to sit on either pitch. The four-seamer has great vertical movement, with a yMov of 11.2 which ranks eighth in the league for that pitch type, while the cutter has great horizontal movement, with an xMov of -2.2 which ranks 20th in the league. He mixes in a sweeper about 10% of the time, a pitch that he was able to generate an impressive CSW percentage of 32.8% with last season and one that he may want to lean into more as he gets older.
A savvy veteran eager to prove himself in his new home, Cortes is looking like good value in the late rounds as someone who can be relied upon to figure out ways to keep hitters off base and keep your fantasy team’s WHIP down in the process.
Cody Bradford – 329.18 ADP*
2024 (76.1 IP): 1.01 WHIP. 3.54 ERA, 6-3 W-L. 70 K
Cody Bradford’s 76.1 IP in 2024 isn’t quite the sample size one would hope for, but his 1.01 WHIP ranked seventh in the league. Coupling that with a 4.2% walk rate that ranked 10th in the league, it’s clear that Bradford knows how to command his pitches. He primarily (52% of the time) throws an 89.8 mph four-seamer that defies logic in how well it graded out in every other metric last season.
Bradford makes good use of his 7.1 feet of extension (94th percentile) to make this pitch effective. Overall, his CSW percentage of 30.6% ranked 24th and Str-ICR (strikes thrown that did not result in ideal contact made by the batter) of 53.9% ranked 22nd in the league. He also limited hard contact as his hard-hit rate of 34.8% was in the 80th percentile.
Batters only hit .210 against Bradford’s changeup (thrown 27% of the time), but he needs to improve either his curveball (.306 BAA) or slider (.320 BAA). The latter two pitches made up a full 20% of his arsenal last season and found very little success.
It should be noted that it was just announced this week that Bradford will be starting the year on the IL with elbow soreness. An MRI came back clean of any structural damage and it appears that the Rangers are just being cautious here so as not to jeopardize the rest of Bradford’s season. While this will obviously suppress some of his overall numbers for the year, it could drop his ADP even lower for the moment, making Bradford an even greater bargain. He should return from the IL a week or two into the season based on current reports, and should be fully ready to help lower your WHIP at that juncture.
Nick Martinez – 337.54 ADP*
2024 (142.1 IP): 1.03 WHIP, 3.10 ERA, 10-7 W-L, 116 K
Journeyman veteran Nick Martinez was able to settle into a nice groove in his first year in Cincinnati last season, finishing the year with a strong line across all categories. The 142.1 IP, 1.03 WHIP, 10 wins and 3.10 ERA were all career bests in his age-33 season, and he appears to have shown up to spring training already in a similar rhythm.
Showcasing a true six-pitch mix, Martinez was able to consistently command his entire arsenal last season, leading to a diminutive walk rate of 3.2% which ranked fifth in the league. While Martinez finished the year with an only slightly-above-average PLV (5.18 compared to the MLB average of 5.13), he otherwise was a bit of a Statcast darling.
Batters hit only .219 against Martinez’ four-seamer, which has legitimate vert, and an even lower .186 versus his impressive changeup. That changeup especially is a pitch that Martinez has worked to fine tune over the years and has become a reliable swing-and-miss pitch.
With the Reds showing full confidence in Martinez as a starter heading into 2025, he is looking like one of the better value plays at the end of drafts, especially in the WHIP category.
Ryan Weathers – 372.75 ADP*
2024 (86.2 IP): 1.18 WHIP, 3.63 ERA, 5-6 W-L, 80 K
Ryan Weathers has been quietly dominant this spring with his fastball recently topping out at 99.8 mph and sitting 98 mph, up a little over two ticks from last season. After posting a quality 1.18 WHIP across 86.2 innings in 2024, Weathers has shown up to spring looking much more dominant, with a 1.09 WHIP, 1.23 ERA and 10 strikeouts so far across 7.1 innings.
Weathers pairs the aforementioned heater with a solid changeup that sits in the mid-80’s, creating impressive separation between the two pitches. He also has a sweeper that generated a hefty CSW percentage of 36% last season, which ranked 13th in the league for that pitch type. Seemingly unsatisfied with these already-impressive weapons, Weathers has shown signs this spring of a cutter that he is looking to introduce into his arsenal.
While the team situation surrounding Weathers in Miami is one of the shakiest foundations outside of the south side of Chicago, thankfully this shouldn’t impact his WHIP, as it’s one of the categories most in control of the man on the mound. Even if he gets little run support and has some of his outings shortened due to the questionable defense behind him, Weathers looks primed to be someone who can suppress his walks and hits allowed and contribute to you winning your WHIP category this season.
Max Meyer– 433.95 ADP*
2024 (57 IP): 1.42 WHIP, 5.68 ERA, 3-5 W-L, 46 K
Similar to Weathers, Max Meyer has apparently significantly overhauled his arsenal this offseason and is turning heads this spring with his brief-but-impressive outings. Meyer’s four-seamer has also seen a 2+ mph uptick in velocity, sitting at 96 mph and topping out at 97.1 mph. He is most known for a devastating slider that keeps hitters on their heels, though he has previously struggled to pair that with other off-speed offerings to round out his weaponry. He appears to have locked in on this issue this past offseason, introducing a sweeper that he now can differentiate from the slider, while mixing in changeups as well. Meyer does not hesitate to credit the Marlins’ overhauled pitching coach staff for these changes. “The staff has done a great job relaying information that helps me understand when and where to throw each pitch,” Meyer has said of the Marlins’ new pitching coaches. “My arsenal is night and day compared to last year.”
Meyer had a frustrating year last year that saw him unfairly demoted and then held in Triple-A for a majority of the season. He returned to the big leagues after the All-Star break, but struggled to find any kind of rhythm before being shelved for the remainder of the year with right shoulder bursitis. The former No. 3 overall pick in 2020 initially appeared to have finally arrived after undergoing Tommy John surgery way back in August of 2022. He began 2024 with three very impressive starts, seeming to gain momentum with each outing and compiling a miniscule 0.82 WHIP in the process.
While having only compiled four strikeouts through his first six spring innings in 2025, Meyer’s 1.00 WHIP so far shows that he is back to limiting hard contact and preventing too many runners from reaching base. If he can harness this new approach and continue his current rhythm into the regular season, Meyer could be one of the more slept on bargains this season in the late rounds.