The age-old question: should we care about Spring Training stats? The answer is sometimes yes and sometimes no.
The ‘yes’ portion tends to focus more on pitching—who’s velocity is ticking up, who’s getting swings and misses with a new pitch, who’s looking healthy after an injury. And this tends to reflect in ADP – the biggest swings up and down the board are usually pitchers.
The ‘no’ usually applies to hitters, unless there’s a change in their approach. Take Elly De La Cruz, for instance, who’s using a new batting stance and succeeding with it (already at 4.5 ADP, he doesn’t have much room to grow but did go up to 4.1). And ADP swings with hitters often go beyond their performance—a projected change in role or lineup spot, or an injury to someone ahead of them on the depth chart. So don’t blindly buy into Vinny Capra’s MLB-leading five home runs or Jerar Encarnación’s fourteen RBIs—but, if you see someone like Michael Busch with 12 RBIs and 10 Runs scored, that’s worth looking into.
Usually, an ADP rise is a steady climb, like going up a flight of stairs. An ADP fall—especially when injury-related—is like falling out a window. Keep this in mind when evaluating any steep drops, they’re usually an overreaction and value can be had.
For this exercise, we will compare the NFBC’s average ADP for the extended weekend of March 13-17 to those from the previous month (Feb 13-March 12).
The Risers
Spencer Strider – 119.5 to 106.5 (up 13 spots)
If ADP is a steady climb, Strider is about to take the elevator. He was already floating up the board, but now the sky might be the limit. In the three drafts immediately following his sparkling debut Monday, his ADP was 79. He’ll likely enter the top 75 before the week is out and in some drafts could go top 50 (so expect this 106.5 ADP to soar further).
Is top-75 a fair valuation? Let’s look at the performance: Strider threw 27 pitches in this outing, 23 of which were strikes. He struck out six batters including a run of five in a row. It’s hard not to get excited about it, but let’s look a little deeper.
Notably, Strider was not pitching against Boston’s A-squad: the first three batters faced were David Hamilton, Vaughn Grissom, and Roman Anthony (and things went downhill from there). Three of his K’s came from fastballs (he was touching 98 but his velo started to fade at the end), and three came off filthy offspeed pitches – so it’s nice to know he’s locating well, getting whiffs, and using the full arsenal.
As you consider where to put Strider in your own rankings, you should ask yourself three questions: 1) can I put him on my IL until he’s ready, 2) how many innings should I expect, and 3) am I willing to reach for someone everyone else is targeting?
If you have two or more IL slots, great—take him and try to avoid risk for the rest of your draft.
Now let’s look at the workload. Strider was projected to come off the IL at the end of April, but given this outing that could move up a week or two. If he’s throwing 27 pitches in a game already, he could hit 40 in his next appearance, then 55 in the next one, and so on. If he makes that normal progression he could handle a 5-inning workload around the middle of the month. The Braves start a homestand against the Twins on April 16, I’d speculate he’ll appear either in that series or against the Cardinals right after.
Surely Strider will be given some rest here and there, but 25 starts are possible, which translates to around 150 innings. If he can match his career-level 13.5 K’s per nine innings, that’s 225 punchouts. For reference, only Tarik Skubal had more last year (228). He’d hit 200 K’s even if 13.5 drops to 12 K/9, which paired with a decent winning percentage is top-15 territory overall, and easily a top-5 pitcher per start.
Given all that, are you willing to make the reach? Nobody’s playing for second place, I say the risk is worth it.
Sandy Alcantara – 155.3 to 137.8 (up 17.5 spots)
Before Strider, perhaps the most buzzed-about pitcher was Alcantara. The 2022 Cy Young winner hit triple digits on his fastball in his first appearance and has yet to yield an earned run in 8.2 innings this Spring.
Alcantara got Tommy John in October of 2023, so he’s had a full eighteen months of recovery (Strider’s surgery was only eleven months ago, but it was a bracing procedure and not the full TJ). He was already saying he felt good throwing last October, so maybe it’s not surprising he’s been so sharp.
That said, there were some concerns about Alcantara before the surgery. He throws hard, sure, but his strikeouts are just average (and in 2023 were less than that). His changeup had a .146 BAA in 2022, but that ballooned up to .282 in 2023 – and none of his offerings had a BAA lower than .227.
Why can’t someone throwing 98-99 regularly be a big-strikeout pitcher? Well, his extension is just around six feet, so batters have a little extra space to judge what’s coming. And while his sinker had a 64.9% ground-ball rate, its 29% CSW is just barely above average.
Alcantara has been and could be a great pitcher, but he’s probably one of those ‘better in real life than fantasy’ types. That’s mainly from the low K-rate. If he’s also on a managed workload – which the team has gone both ways on – he’s probably not worth the inflated price.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand – 239.1 to 212.2 (up 26.9 spots)
First Base is deceptively thin, which is why Vlad Guerrero has moved up from 12th in ADP to 10th (and really should be around 7-8). But after pick 100 the position gets scary, especially in the power department (or, you have some power but a drain everywhere else). Enter Strand, who came to the Majors late in 2023 after an all-time AAA campaign where he was hitting bombs completely out of stadiums.
A hyped sleeper last year, CES had a miserable first month, looking either lost or injured at the plate. He batted just .190 with two home runs in 123 plate appearances. A fractured wrist then ended his season before it could really start.
Now, the multi-syllabled one looks like he’s back and looking healthy, swatting three homers with a pair of doubles. CES had solid advanced metrics as a rookie, with solid hard-hit rates, a barrel of 10.5%, and a decent .270 average. All those positives turned sour in his second season, so that wrist was probably an issue before the Reds put him on the IL.
CES has plateaued a bit (2-for-11 over the last four games) so his hot start may be petering out. But he’s still a good last option if you missed out on all the top First Basemen. He’ll start the year in the bottom third of the lineup but has a chance to rise if he’s performing, and it looks like a full-time job is his.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – 136.3 to 123.0 (up 13.3 spots)
We’re not done with the hyphenated names. PCA scuffled most of last season but his stellar defense kept him in the lineup, and he swiped 17 first-half bags without getting caught once (his 30.0 f/s speed is elite). In August and September, though, his hitting came together with a .284 average, seven homers, and ten more steals (though he was caught three times). He’s quickly emerging as a popular breakout candidate after a solid Spring.
Actually, he’s been more than solid: three homers, two steals, and a .519 average and 1.500 OPS in 27 at-bats (it’s a shortened season for the Cubbies as they left early for the Tokyo series). PCA has the ceiling of a five-category player, but he’s got a long way to go given his Statcast numbers – even with the solid finish he ended up with a 2nd-percentile chase rate, a .223 xBA, and 26th-percentile bat speed. He hit just ten home runs in 410 plate appearances and has yet to show patience at the plate with just a 5.1% walk rate.
The former first-rounder has room to improve his contact skills, and at 22 his power should still develop. A 20-40 season is possible, it just might not be this one (and batting seventh in the Tokyo series, he went 0-7 with 3 K’s).
The Fallers
George Kirby – 69.6 to 168.7 (down 99.1 spots)
I was trying to avoid players dropping due to injury, but here we are. I won’t speculate medically beyond what we’re being told, but the latest info on Kirby is he had a ‘biologics injection’ to reduce the inflammation in his shoulder. After things settle over a few days to a week, he’ll begin ramping things up again.
Basically, his clock resets to the first day in camp, putting him about a month (and maybe a few days) behind schedule. If he has a normal progression with no setbacks, he could miss about that time on the IL.
We all know what Kirby can do, so given his skill set and track record, 168 feels pretty low. Just ask yourself the same questions we had for Strider and make sure there’s a fit, but this is the ‘APDP falling out a window’ scenario discussed at the top. It’s an overreaction, especially if you stream the position until he’s ready to go and enjoy the per-start advantage he’ll give you the rest of the way.
Also worth mentioning if you use NFBC for your rankings—these leagues don’t have IL slots, so injured players drop extra hard here. As for Kirby his ADP will probably float back up to the 150-range but risk-reward drafters could take him in the top-125.
Marcus Semien – 89.3 to 97.0 (down 7.7 spots)
Semien saw his OPS drop 127 points from 2023 to 2024 as the Rangers fell to pieces after their World Series victory. Semien regularly led the league in plate appearances, but given the team’s shoddy performance, this dipped from 753 in ’23 to 718 last year. He also stopped running—dropping from 25 steals in 2022 to just eight last year. Formerly a four-category helper and second- or third-round pick, Semien’s now barely cracking the top 100 and may fall out of it by the end of draft season.
So what’s changed? Semien missed a little time with an illness, but he’s also batting .205 in 44 Spring plate appearances. Though he has two homers, he hasn’t attempted a steal.
Perhaps the biggest reason his ADP is dropping recently, though, is the perceived change in depth at Second Base. Thought to be the shallowest of positions, it’s getting exciting with the several emerging late sleeper options. Semien is dropping as other alternatives emerge—he’s a veteran who’s old and boring compared to the shiny new toys.
Don’t sleep on him, though—especially in a points league where his 14.6% K-rate plays huge. Sometimes the boring veterans are your best option.
Brandon Nimmo – 173.9 to 192.5 (down 18.6 spots)
Most of the major ADP fallers have been due to injury, and Nimmo is no different. But after missing a couple of weeks due to an ailing knee, Nimmo was batting second in Monday’s game against the Rays. He made three plate appearances (0-2 with a walk) but the Mets were comfortable putting him in Left Field for six innings.
Nimmo had an up-and-down season last year—on the one hand, he spent most of the season in the top-third of the lineup and racked up 88 runs, 90 RBIs, and hit 23 homers with 15 steals (a career high). On the other, he batted just .224 and saw his OPS drop more than a hundred points since 2023. A lot of this might be due to BABIP, which dropped below .300 for the first time in his career and was just .267—surprising, given his average EV of 91.9 mph.
Nimmo’s topped 150 games the last three seasons and if the knee’s fine he should bounce back from an unlucky season. With the addition of Juan Soto and the ascension of Mark Vientos, Nimmo could drop a couple of spots in the lineup but should continue being an underrated player. Keep him in your top 150.
