Tired of the same old groupthink that consumes the fantasy baseball community? Same here. Opinions are what make sports conversations great. Having your opinions challenged forces you to take a step back and reevaluate how you feel about certain players. Adding to that thought, reading one article about a prospect or player should not be the only resource used to properly evaluate a player. That is the idea behind this article. Each member of the Pitcher List dynasty staff has a unique opinion. Why not create an article that provides two different breakdowns of the same players? This article looks at four different prospects that Martin Sekulski and I disagree on. We each try to convince you that our side is the right outlook to have.
Head over to the Pitcher List dynasty page to check out the rest of the great work the team has been producing including write-ups on all 30 farm systems.
Roderick Arias – SS, New York Yankees
The Pro-Arias Argument – Matt Heckman
For a while, it seemed like every New York Yankees international free agent signing was going to turn into a generation prospect. Signing with the Yankees and the publicity that comes with that inflated their dynasty value to unachievable levels. First, it was Jasson Dominguez who was crowned the next Mike Trout before his 17th birthday. His dynasty value has fluctuated nearly every year since with high highs and low lows. Following closely behind Dominguez was Roderick Arias. The top-rated prospect in the 2022 international class signed with the Yankees out of the Dominican Republic and instantly became a highly sought-after prospect in dynasty circles. The hype certainly went too far and Arias fell flat on his face in his first taste of professional pitching. Now, the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. Arias is a great prospect to buy low on entering 2025.
The first thing that dynasty managers should look for in a prospect is athleticism. Arias certainly has plenty of that. Standing at 6’0″, Arias has great speed and natural baseball instincts. The switch-hitting shortstop has noticeable power from the left side. A big leg kick with a slightly upper-cut swing creates some monster home runs. His patient approach and excellent understanding of the strike zone force opposing pitchers to attack him over the plate where he does damage. Arias already has a natural feel for tapping into his pull side and should continue adding muscle as he continues to mature. Dreaming of Arias pulling homers into the short porch at Yankee Stadium should be enough to get fantasy managers hot-and-bothered. The power is not as prolific from the right side but is still a solid tool. Arias has easy 25-home-run potential if everything clicks. Add that to his plus-plus speed and you get an enticing fantasy asset.
“If everything clicks” is the biggest issue and certainly one that Martin is going to hit on. Arias’ brief professional career has not been smooth sailing as he has struggled to make consistent contact. High strikeout rates and low batting averages certainly create some concern. However, with young hitters, dynasty managers should look for solid progression. Arias was showing just that before suffering a fractured hand. In his final 47 games, Arias slashed .276/.390/.471. More notably, he cut his strikeout rate over that period down to 24.1%. His 600 PA pace over that time frame was 20 home runs and 47 stolen bases. After whiffing over 40% of the time through June, Arias whiffed less than 30% of the time in July and August.
Arias will be 20 for almost the entirety of the 2025 season. Progression for prospects is not always linear and dynasty managers should recognize that Arias has as much upside as nearly any prospect in baseball. 25 home run and 40 stolen base upside does not grow on trees yet Arias is being completely overlooked in dynasty circles. If his hit tool can just improve to average, Arias will turn into a significant dynasty asset. Yet, for some reason, he is being placed outside of the top 100 in most publications. This should change and Arias is a great buy-low candidate.
The Flip Side – Martin Sekulski
I hate that I have to debate against Roderick Arias, one of the most toolsy prospects in the Minors. Arias came out guns blazing in the Complex League in 2023, hitting .267 with six homers and 17 steals in 27 games. His batted-ball data was impressive for his age, reaching MLB averages (90 mph avg EV, 103 mph 90th) as a teenager. Under the surface, Arias had shown gaps in his swing, producing a 39% whiff rate and an overall contact rate of just over 60%. Typically, those aren’t of concern, but a 22% strikeout rate at the Complex level is an early red flag.
Things escalated very quickly for Arias in 2024. Playing at Single-A, the 20-year-old accumulated 115 punchouts over the first three months of the season, finishing June with a 41.2% strikeout rate. Arias showed signs of life in July, batting .282 while cutting his K-rate down to 26%. The overall season line was putrid. Arias slashed .233/.335/.393 with 13 homers, 21 doubles, and a 31% strikeout rate. Arias maintained his EVs and improved his overall contact rate to 63%, but he had just a 6% barrel rate and a 37.9% hard-hit rate.
A 30+ percent strikeout rate is problematic regardless of level and is a significant cause for concern. Nothing in the profile shows anything more than a 40-grade hit tool for Arias. His power upside means nothing if you can’t make consistent contact. Arias also has shown a propensity to chase early and often, which doesn’t help his strikeout woes. At least Clifford is near 70% and rarely chases. We’ve seen this profile before in busted prospects like Elijah Green. The one positive from Arias thus far is that his speed is at least a plus. I’m confident his 37 steals from 2024 are unsustainable at higher levels as the catching quality will improve, and Arias grades as a 60-grade runner, which is not an elite metric. I have no problem with Arias inside of a top 200 rankings, although he is not my cup of tea. It is egregious to rank Arias as a top-80 prospect. However, Arias fits Matt’s ideal prospect profile; high upside plays with very low floors (see Bolte, Henry).
Ryan Clifford – OF/1B, New York Mets
The Pro-Clifford Argument – Martin Sekulski
The next hitter on my list is versatile Mets prospect Ryan Clifford. The 21-year-old was an 11th-round pick of the Astros in 2022 and joined the Mets in the Justin Verlander trade. Clifford was stellar in 2023, slashing .262/.374/.480 with 24 homers and 20 doubles across three levels. This season, Clifford still mashed 19 homers, had 27 doubles, and posted a 131 wRC+. Although his surface stats looked similar, he finished with a misleading strikeout rate of over 36%. Don’t get lost in that number. Although Clifford does have swing-and-miss in his profile, he’s also entirely passive at the plate. His swing rate is well below 40%, resulting in a near-17% walk rate and also plenty of strikeouts. Conversely, Clifford does not chase often so if they can get him to be more aggressive at the plate, it could yield even better results.
Clifford has some of the best power in the Minors, consistently producing exit velocities well above the league average. There is little doubt about his potential to impact the game as a future 30-homer bat. His ultimate path to success will hinge on increased aggression, consistent contact, and finding a reasonable batting average. Clifford’s profile isn’t much different from what Pete Alonso offers to the Mets, although his power isn’t at that level.
Matt’s argument against Clifford will likely be that he’s a batting average liability and is a three-true-outcome profile. I can’t argue that, as I stated earlier. But I see game-changing power in his profile, and his power alone should help him reach the big leagues. I don’t view Clifford as a high-end prospect, but his power ceiling is comparable to some of the better prospects in the Minor Leagues.
The Flip Side – Matt Heckman
Sometimes, a prospect is part of a notable deal at a trade deadline, and their dynasty value inflates regardless of their on-field production. After Ryan Clifford was dealt to the Mets as part of the Justin Verlander trade, Clifford was suddenly crowned the next breakout prospect. Sure, he was playing well for Houston. 18 home runs in 83 games is nothing to scoff at. The question is how long are dynasty managers going to hold onto this hot streak? The season-long numbers have never been overly impressive and it is time to stop valuing Clifford like a top-100 prospect.
There is one thing that Clifford does well. He hits for power. Clifford’s left-handed swing packs pop and when he was projecting as an outfielder, that carried intrigue. This past year, the Mets shifted Clifford away from the outfield, having him prioritize first base. A power-hitting first baseman is a lot less intriguing. Even so, home run-focused first basemen are valuable in fantasy all of the time. Just look at Matt Olson. For the ones with prolific power, absolutely. That is not Clifford. Clifford’s home run rates have settled just above the league average. The most home runs he has hit in a Minor League season is 24. His swing is not designed to tap into his pull side consistently, lowering his ceiling. There is 25 home run potential in Clifford’s bat but not much more than that.
With a ceiling of 25-28 home runs, Clifford is going to need to produce in other categories. Stolen bases are not part of Clifford’s game. He has stolen a total of 11 bases in his professional career. Clifford’s lackluster speed is part of his shift to first base and does not project to get better. Fantasy managers should not count on more than five at the Major League level. The other area fantasy managers can instantly cross off their list is batting average. Clifford’s hit tool is suspect. He runs a lot of deep counts and has whiff issues that lead to high strikeout rates. The highest single-season batting average Clifford has been able to post is .262. After hitting just .228 last season, his true ceiling is likely somewhere around .250. This is not going to help inflate his fantasy value.
Ranking Clifford inside of the top 100 prospects for fantasy baseball feels irresponsible. In OBP leagues, Clifford’s high walk rates help provide more value, but he still lacks the upside many other prospects possess. If dynasty managers are seeking a one-category player, make sure that player can carry your fantasy team in that category. Think Xavier Edwards with his speed, Luis Arraez with his batting average, or even Kyle Schwarber with his power. Clifford does not have that kind of upside to his home run totals and is an easy prospect to sell in dynasty circles.
Christian Moore – 2B, Los Angeles Angels
The Pro-Moore Argument – Martin Sekulski
Moore was a rocketship following his selection as the 8th overall pick in the 2024 Draft. After a monster season at Tennessee that saw Moore slash .375/.451/.797 with 34 homers and 19 doubles, the 22-year-old blitzed the Minor Leagues. In 25 games, Moore posted a .984 OPS with six homers and six doubles. Moore likely wouldn’t be in this discussion if he hadn’t sustained a meniscus injury in August. The Angels are hyper-aggressive with their prospects, and Moore was on the fast track to the Show.
Moore’s profile is more interesting now that his power has fully developed. In two prior college seasons, Moore tallied 27 homers, compared to the 34 he hit in his final season. His power is absolutely legit, producing a 96 mph average EV and a 90th percentile over 112 mph, ranking among the elite of all NCAA hitters. Exit velocities that high will play anywhere, and Moore has already proven he can get to power with a wood bat as well, topping out at over 112mph in the Minors. Moore isn’t just a pull-side power guy, showing legitimate home run power to all fields.
Although I rank Moore inside my Top 35 prospects, his profile isn’t perfect. Contact issues plagued Moore as a sophomore, including an overall contact rate well below 70%. But he rebounded in 2024, reaching an overall rate of over 77% and around 82% in-zone. He’s not going to win you a batting title, but Moore makes enough contact to consistently find that power and not be a drain on your average. If you can stomach a strikeout rate in the mid-20s and an average of around .260, Moore will give you 25+ homers and 10-15 steals. Matt will likely point to Zach Neto, a fellow Angel and prospect who was also rushed to the Majors. Moore and Neto have similar profiles, with Moore having significantly more pop and Neto being a superior runner. Not many people would argue that Neto is a Top 125/150 asset in Dynasty, and Moore will also reach that level.
The Flip Side – Matt Heckman
Any prospect moving quickly through the Minor Leagues must be really good right? If Paul Skenes and Wyatt Langford can do it, should Christian Moore be placed in that same category? Moore is not the first prospect the Angels have done this with. Both Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel were pushed quickly through the Minor Leagues as the Angels attempted to add talent to their Major League roster. Fantasy managers have been disappointed by the rookie seasons of both Schanuel and Neto. Neto hit .225 with an 88 wRC+ in his first season while Schanuel hit .250 with a 104 wRC+. The concerning part is that both hitters were far more polished than Moore. As the dynasty community continues to inflate Moore’s value, he is an easy sell candidate for those who own him.
In a small sample after being drafted, Moore put up huge numbers. In 25 games, Moore crushed six homers while batting .347. Martin already hit on the kind of power upside he has and I am not trying to refute that. Power is great and sounds even better at the second base position. We saw it with Nolan Gorman’s dynasty value and how inflated it became due to his power upside. The issue is Gorman could not hit enough to stick at the Major League level (at least not yet). Moore profiles in a similar way. Now wait. Moore hit .347 last season. Sure, but shift your attention to his BABIP. Moore’s BABIP was at .439 last season. The highest BABIP amongst qualified Major League hitters last year was Seiya Suzuki at .370. Even if you take .100 points off of Moore’s BABIP from last season, it would still finish well above the league average. Now, take .100 points off his batting average and you are looking at a .247 hitter.
Moore’s profile has tons of swing and miss in it as evidenced by his 17.2% swinging strike rate in Double-A. Moore’s swing is designed to drive the ball. He can be overly aggressive at times trying to get to his power creating additional risk. Dynasty managers should expect his strikeout rate to creep up as the sample size grows larger. With a suspect hit tool, Moore’s dynasty value is reliant on both power and speed. The power upside is there, but Moore’s speed is more average than game-changing. He profiles for 10-12 stolen bases in a season but nothing to set him apart. A fair projection is something similar to Brandon Lowe. Not a bad player, but not a must-own prospect. He should be considered a fringe top-100 prospect as opposed to a can’t miss guy which is where many have him.
Cooper Kinney– 2B/3B, Tampa Bay Rays
The Pro-Kinney Argument – Matt Heckman
Let’s start with a preface. My love for Cooper Kinney is not to claim he is a top-50 prospect in the sport. The claim here is that Kinney is criminally underrated in dynasty circles. The Rays took Kinney 34th overall in the 2021 draft but shoulder surgery forced him to miss the entirety of the 2022 season. He played well in his first full season in 2023 but failed to put up the kind of numbers that generate attention from the dynasty community. The lack of power in Kinney’s 2023 performance is likely attributed to a continued recovery from his shoulder injury. Digging into his 2024, there is a lot for fantasy managers to like in his profile. The bold take is that Kinney could become one of the best offensive second baseman in all of baseball if everything clicks.
Watching Kinney play, he does it all. He started games at three different positions around the infield last season although his home is likely on the right side of the infield. His swing is silky smooth as Kinney has great barrel control and consistently sprays line drives all over the field. His leg-kick and sweet left-handed swing makes his home runs easy to fall in love with. Kinney has shown improvements to his plate discipline each season and really saw his numbers take off throughout 2024.
Kinney got off to a slow start but exploded after that. From April 13 through July 28, Kinney slashed an incredible .322/.379/.548. In those 314 plate appearances, Kinney posted an ISO of .226. Kinney did not hit his first home run until May 22 but then they started to come in bunches. Kinney hit ten home runs from May 22 through July 28. His 600-plate appearance pace over that span was 27 home runs. The end of Kinney’s 2024 season was derailed by an undisclosed injury but should not overshadow the strides Kinney made at the plate.
Durability is the biggest concern in his profile. While risky, Kinney is worth consideration in the back half of top 100 lists. His elite ability to hit line drives, along with his decreasing strikeout rate, gives Kinney a plus hit tool projection. The development of his power has transformed his ceiling into a second base prospect with 30-home-run potential. The icing on the cake was Kinney’s ability to handle left-handed pitching which he slashed .293/.356/.537 off of last season. If Kinney can stay healthy he is going to fly up prospect boards in 2025. Get in on him now before the rest of the industry catches up.
The Flip Side – Martin Sekulski
Cooper Kinney was a first-round pick in 2021 and has been a serviceable player in his first three seasons in the Minors. Kinney slashed .289/.352/.494 this season with ten homers, 32 doubles, and six steals at High-A, although he played in just 87 games. There are some definite things to like in his profile. His contact rates are above average, and his overall plate discipline is fine. Kinney has also flashed raw power, although the final output has been marginal.
Missed time is an underlying theme in Kinney’s career. He missed the entire 2022 season due to a shoulder injury, and after surviving the 2023 season, Kinney missed even more time in 2024 with an undisclosed injury. A prospect’s value is only as good as the time spent on the field. Look at someone like Jordan Lawlar. His upside is tremendous, but durability is a concern.
I have concerns about his batted-ball profile as well. Kinney has improved his hard-hit rates and EVs, which are still below average. He also had just a 28% fly-ball rate in 2024 with a career-best of 30%. Plus, Kinney’s pull rate is only 35.5%. So how much power will he come into if you’ve got questionable raw power, are struggling to lift, and cannot get to your pull side often?
Kinney has been an above-average performer, but age-to-level is another factor. Cooper is a three-year pro who has yet to reach beyond High-A, and granted, injuries have been a factor, but I need to see more of his improvements at the next level. The final question mark is his approach. Kinney is hyper-aggressive at the plate, swinging over 53% of the time. His approach plays fine in the lower levels due to his contact skills, but how will he fare against pitchers at the upper levels? I’m okay with Matt’s assessment that Kinney is a solid prospect, but he’s ranked inside his Top 85. I have Kinney outside the Top 20 in the Rays’ organization in my rankings, and he was not among my ‘just missed’ on my Top 200 overall prospects. If Kinney can stay healthy, he has a chance to be a super utility-type player but not an MLB regular.
This is a great idea. More of this point/counterpoint, please!